SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><em><strong>Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.</strong>&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.</em></div>
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<h2>PropNex Ltd</h2>
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<h3>Take a Pause</h3>
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<p>”Priced to perfection” as valuations at + 2 SD</p>
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<p>Expecting higher contributions from the resale segment to weigh on gross margins</p>
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<p>Despite near term strength in the property market, risk of policy intervention will weigh on further re-rating.</p>
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<p>Initiate coverage with HOLD and TP of S$1.83</p>
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<p><strong>Positives priced in with government policy a key risk to a -re- rating.</strong> Our HOLD recommendation is mainly premised on the stock’s rich valuation (+2 SD of its historical mean) in the face of possible property cooling measures with the property market rising 7.1% and HDB up 10% over a year. The last time when cooling measures were introduced in July 2018, the Property Price Index (PPI) had risen 9% over a span of five quarters.</p>
<p><strong>Property market strength is supported by local demand</strong>. Barring any property cooling measures, we see property prices rising steadily led by a lack of unsold inventory. While this will be a drive prices higher, lower unsold inventory going forward means a smaller market for property agents like PropNex to capture, meaning that growth may taper off from 2022 onwards.</p>
<p><strong>Higher contribution from the resale segment to weigh on margins.</strong> Due to the lower supply of new launches, we are expecting a higher contribution from the resale segment, which has lower gross profit margins.</p>
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Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.






PropNex Ltd




Take a Pause






”Priced to perfection” as valuations at + 2 SD


Expecting higher contributions from the resale segment to weigh on gross margins


Despite near term strength in the property market, risk of policy intervention will weigh on further re-rating.


Initiate coverage with HOLD and TP of S$1.83






Positives priced in with government policy a key risk to a -re- rating. Our HOLD recommendation is mainly premised on the stock’s rich valuation (+2 SD of its historical mean) in the face of possible property cooling measures with the property market rising 7.1% and HDB up 10% over a year. The last time when cooling measures were introduced in July 2018, the Property Price Index (PPI) had risen 9% over a span of five quarters.
Property market strength is supported by local demand. Barring any property cooling measures, we see property prices rising steadily led by a lack of unsold inventory. While this will be a drive prices higher, lower unsold inventory going forward means a smaller market for property agents like PropNex to capture, meaning that growth may taper off from 2022 onwards.
Higher contribution from the resale segment to weigh on margins. Due to the lower supply of new launches, we are expecting a higher contribution from the resale segment, which has lower gross profit margins.


















(Non-SGX Report) PropNex Ltd: Take a Pause

<p><em><strong>Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;</strong>SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.</em></p>
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<h2>PropNex Limited</h2>
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<h3>Riding strong purchase momentum</h3>
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<p>1HFY21 revenue made up 76.2%, and net profit 82.4% of our FY21E forecasts, with strength above expectations, riding the strong buying momentum that lasted from FY20. Drivers of growth were mainly higher transaction volume, attractive mortgage rates, Singapore’s safe haven status and a bigger upgrader market due to attractive HDB resale prices.</p>
<p>PropNex reported revenue doubling from S$240.4m to S$481.1m in 1HFY21, with all segments seeing growth. Private resale took lead with 2.5x yoy jump to S$108.7m from S$44.2m, and project marketing clocking highest value jump to S$225.1m from S$109.4m (2.1x). PATMI increased 2.1x to S$31.3m. Total 1H dividend payout was 5.50 cents per share or 64.9% of 1H PATMI.</p>
<p>Transaction volume, property price run-up to continue in the near-term. We expect home prices to remain resilient with higher developer costs that will translate to higher property prices, more HDB upgraders and long waiting times for BTO flats. Property investments by high-net-worth individuals due to Singapore’s “safe-haven” status will also contribute to the increase. The low inventory of unsold private residential units in the market is, however, a double-edged sword.</p>
<p><strong>Adjusted our FY21E estimates; introduce FY22E forecasts.</strong> With its strong set of 1H results, we raised our FY21E revenue estimates by 28.8% to S$813.7m, and PATMI by 40.8% to S$53.6m. In addition, we introduce our FY22E forecasts, which translates to a 15.9% decline in topline to S$684.3m, and 19.5% yoy decline on PATMI to S$43.1m.</p>
<p><strong>Maintain HOLD rating, at a higher fair value of S$2.00 (from S$1.27)</strong>. Our target price is based on a P/E multiple of 13.8x, which is based on FY21E P/E +1SD above its mean. We expect strong 1H momentum to continue into 2H. However, we think the market has priced in PropNex’s strengths: i) market leadership position; ii) continued rise in property transactions and prices in 2H; and iii) strong cash holdings positioned it well to capture more opportunities. We are cautious about i) possible property cooling measures; ii) strong growth rate might not sustain; and iii) dwindling supply in the pipeline and fewer new launches expected pointing to lower transaction volume next year. Our target price implies a 4.2% upside to the last traded price.</p>
<p><strong>Key Risks</strong>: Possible property cooling measures, competition from other players, dwindling home supply</p>
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Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.




PropNex Limited




Riding strong purchase momentum




1HFY21 revenue made up 76.2%, and net profit 82.4% of our FY21E forecasts, with strength above expectations, riding the strong buying momentum that lasted from FY20. Drivers of growth were mainly higher transaction volume, attractive mortgage rates, Singapore’s safe haven status and a bigger upgrader market due to attractive HDB resale prices.
PropNex reported revenue doubling from S$240.4m to S$481.1m in 1HFY21, with all segments seeing growth. Private resale took lead with 2.5x yoy jump to S$108.7m from S$44.2m, and project marketing clocking highest value jump to S$225.1m from S$109.4m (2.1x). PATMI increased 2.1x to S$31.3m. Total 1H dividend payout was 5.50 cents per share or 64.9% of 1H PATMI.
Transaction volume, property price run-up to continue in the near-term. We expect home prices to remain resilient with higher developer costs that will translate to higher property prices, more HDB upgraders and long waiting times for BTO flats. Property investments by high-net-worth individuals due to Singapore’s “safe-haven” status will also contribute to the increase. The low inventory of unsold private residential units in the market is, however, a double-edged sword.
Adjusted our FY21E estimates; introduce FY22E forecasts. With its strong set of 1H results, we raised our FY21E revenue estimates by 28.8% to S$813.7m, and PATMI by 40.8% to S$53.6m. In addition, we introduce our FY22E forecasts, which translates to a 15.9% decline in topline to S$684.3m, and 19.5% yoy decline on PATMI to S$43.1m.
Maintain HOLD rating, at a higher fair value of S$2.00 (from S$1.27). Our target price is based on a P/E multiple of 13.8x, which is based on FY21E P/E +1SD above its mean. We expect strong 1H momentum to continue into 2H. However, we think the market has priced in PropNex’s strengths: i) market leadership position; ii) continued rise in property transactions and prices in 2H; and iii) strong cash holdings positioned it well to capture more opportunities. We are cautious about i) possible property cooling measures; ii) strong growth rate might not sustain; and iii) dwindling supply in the pipeline and fewer new launches expected pointing to lower transaction volume next year. Our target price implies a 4.2% upside to the last traded price.
Key Risks: Possible property cooling measures, competition from other players, dwindling home supply













(Non-SGX Report) PropNex Limited: Riding Strong Purchase Momentum

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/propnex-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27209:1" rel="noopener">Propnex Ltd (PROP SP)</a> is Singapore’s largest listed real estate agency. Propnex’s shares have been on tear are up around 150% YTD helped by strong sales momentum in both new home and resales transactions. Singapore’s property market has been sizzling, with the Private Property Price Index (PPI) increasing each quarter from 2Q20 to 1Q21. The rate of increase in the PPI slowed in 2Q21 due to lockdowns which impacted property viewings and the launch of new projects for sale. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Despite the re-introduction of partial lockdowns, Propnex is forecasted to deliver a strong 2021 due to the robust transaction volumes posted by all its segments in 1H21. However, the consensus is forecasting that 2021 will mark the peak earnings as the positive tailwinds of 2021 will be difficult to sustain into 2022 and beyond.</p>
<p>Propnex currently trades at FY21 P/E of 12.3x and a cash-adjusted FY21 P/E of 10.3x. The FY21 P/E of 12.3x is broadly in line with the average 1-year forward P/E of 12.2x but a 15% premium to the average forward P/E of 10.7x since IPO. At the last close price, we think that most of the positive expectations have been priced in and the shares are fully priced.  </p>
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Propnex Ltd (PROP SP) is Singapore’s largest listed real estate agency. Propnex’s shares have been on tear are up around 150% YTD helped by strong sales momentum in both new home and resales transactions. Singapore’s property market has been sizzling, with the Private Property Price Index (PPI) increasing each quarter from 2Q20 to 1Q21. The rate of increase in the PPI slowed in 2Q21 due to lockdowns which impacted property viewings and the launch of new projects for sale. 
Despite the re-introduction of partial lockdowns, Propnex is forecasted to deliver a strong 2021 due to the robust transaction volumes posted by all its segments in 1H21. However, the consensus is forecasting that 2021 will mark the peak earnings as the positive tailwinds of 2021 will be difficult to sustain into 2022 and beyond.
Propnex currently trades at FY21 P/E of 12.3x and a cash-adjusted FY21 P/E of 10.3x. The FY21 P/E of 12.3x is broadly in line with the average 1-year forward P/E of 12.2x but a 15% premium to the average forward P/E of 10.7x since IPO. At the last close price, we think that most of the positive expectations have been priced in and the shares are fully priced.  


Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55" rel="noopener">Capitaland (CAPL SP)</a> shareholders vote in favour of restructuring plans</h3><ul><li>CAPL shareholders have voted in favour to privatise CAPL’s development arm and to list its fund-management and property-investment business. From Sep21, CAPL will operate as two distinct entities, the new, listed unit CapitaLand Investments (CLI) and the privatised CapitaLand Development. CLI shares are expected to list on 16Sep and 3Sept is expected to be the last day of trade for the shares of CapitaLand Limited</li><li>Over 3,400 shareholders voted by proxy at a virtual extraordinary general meeting and a scheme meeting, among which 99.6% backed the resolution to approve the capital reduction and distribution in specie. The scheme of arrangement received approval from 97.6% of the number of shareholders holding approximately 99.8% in value of the total number of shares voted</li><li>CLI is expected to become a leading listed real estate investment manager globally, with pro forma total real estate AUM of ~S$115bn as at 31Dec20. On a pro forma basis, it had ~S$78bn of real estate funds under management held via its managed listed funds and unlisted funds across the Asia-Pacific, Europe and the USA. CLI aims to achieve S$100bn in funds under management by 2024 and grow its lodging business to 160,000 units under management by 2023.</li></ul>

SingaporeCapitaland (CAPL SP) shareholders vote in favour of restructuring plansCAPL shareholders have voted in favour to privatise CAPL’s development arm and to list its fund-management and property-investment business. From Sep21, CAPL will operate as two distinct entities, the new, listed unit CapitaLand Investments (CLI) and the privatised CapitaLand Development. CLI shares are expected to list on 16Sep and 3Sept is expected to be the last day of trade for the shares of CapitaLand LimitedOver 3,400 shareholders voted by proxy at a virtual extraordinary general meeting and a scheme meeting, among which 99.6% backed the resolution to approve the capital reduction and distribution in specie. The scheme of arrangement received approval from 97.6% of the number of shareholders holding approximately 99.8% in value of the total number of shares votedCLI is expected to become a leading listed real estate investment manager globally, with pro forma total real estate AUM of ~S$115bn as at 31Dec20. On a pro forma basis, it had ~S$78bn of real estate funds under management held via its managed listed funds and unlisted funds across the Asia-Pacific, Europe and the USA. CLI aims to achieve S$100bn in funds under management by 2024 and grow its lodging business to 160,000 units under management by 2023.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (11Aug21) - CAPL Gets Nod for Restructuring Plan

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p> </p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>PRIME (US$)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>KORE (US$)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>MUST (US$)</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Period</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>1Q21</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>1Q21</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>1Q21</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Gross Revenue (S$ m)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>35.9 (+2.5% YoY)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>34.6 (-2.1% YoY)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>NPI (S$ m)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>23.0 (-2.0% YoY)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>20.4 (-2.8% YoY)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>DPU (S$ c)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>Not Disclosed</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>Not Disclosed</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>NAV per Unit (S$)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>Not Disclosed</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>Not Disclosed</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>0.730</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>P/B (x)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>0.99(Based on 4Q20 NAV)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>0.90 (Based on 4Q20 NAV)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>1.030 (Based on 4Q20 NAV)</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Occupancy (%)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>91.7</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>91.6</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>92.0</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Reversion (%)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>8.5</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>5.7</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>2.1</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Gearing (%)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>33.6</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>37.5</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>41.3</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Cost of Debt (%)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>2.8</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>2.82</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>3.18</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>8.24</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>8.3</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>8.00</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Debt Hedged (%)</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>90.0</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>84.7</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Target Price</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"><p>Rating</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td><td style="width: 141.2pt;"><p>NA</p></td></tr></tbody></table><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prime-us-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28144" rel="noopener">Prime US REIT (PRIME SP)</a> 1Q21 Business Update – Robust operations metrics; Trading at an attractive 8+% USD yield  </h3><ul><li>1Q21 revenue and NPI came in +2.5% YoY and -2.0% YoY, respectively, to US$35.9m (25.2% BB est) and US$23.5m (26.7% BB est). 1Q21 DI came in -1.2% YoY at US$17.6m, which benefitted from lower interest cost. 1Q21 DPU was undisclosed</li><li>Leasing momentum remained robust with a positive rental reversion of +8.5% in 1Q21 (vs +8.7% in 4Q20 and +8.9% in 3Q20). Focusing on long-term leases – 57,647sqft of long-term leases were executed in 1Q21 at a rental reversion of +9.5%. Below-market portfolio in place rents (by 6.5%) also provide a buffer for rental reversion potential</li><li>Overall portfolio committed occupancy fell to 91.7% in 1Q21 (vs. 92.4% in 4Q20 and 92.6% in 3Q20). PRIME has ~100% of cash rental income with built-in rental escalations averaging over +2% pa. Portfolio occupancy still well above Class-A office average of 84.3%. Rent collections remained robust at 99% with minimal rent concessions. Portfolio WALE stood at 4.3%</li><li>Portfolio gearing stands at 33.8% (vs. 33.5% in 4Q20 and 32.7% in 3Q20) with average cost of debt of 2.8% pa. (vs. 2.7% in 4Q20 and 2.7% in 3Q20) and 90.0% of debt hedged</li><li>PRIME currently trades at 8.24% FY21E yield and 0.99x P/B.</li></ul>

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached) PRIME (US$)KORE (US$)MUST (US$)Period1Q211Q211Q21Gross Revenue (S$ m)35.9 (+2.5% YoY)34.6 (-2.1% YoY)NANPI (S$ m)23.0 (-2.0% YoY)20.4 (-2.8% YoY)NADPU (S$ c)Not DisclosedNot DisclosedNANAV per Unit (S$)Not DisclosedNot Disclosed0.730P/B (x)0.99(Based on 4Q20 NAV)0.90 (Based on 4Q20 NAV)1.030 (Based on 4Q20 NAV)Occupancy (%)91.791.692.0Reversion (%)8.55.72.1Gearing (%)33.637.541.3Cost of Debt (%)2.82.823.181 Yr Fwd Yield (%)8.248.38.00Debt Hedged (%)90.084.7NATarget PriceNANANARatingNANANAPrime US REIT (PRIME SP) 1Q21 Business Update – Robust operations metrics; Trading at an attractive 8+% USD yield  1Q21 revenue and NPI came in +2.5% YoY and -2.0% YoY, respectively, to US$35.9m (25.2% BB est) and US$23.5m (26.7% BB est). 1Q21 DI came in -1.2% YoY at US$17.6m, which benefitted from lower interest cost. 1Q21 DPU was undisclosedLeasing momentum remained robust with a positive rental reversion of +8.5% in 1Q21 (vs +8.7% in 4Q20 and +8.9% in 3Q20). Focusing on long-term leases – 57,647sqft of long-term leases were executed in 1Q21 at a rental reversion of +9.5%. Below-market portfolio in place rents (by 6.5%) also provide a buffer for rental reversion potentialOverall portfolio committed occupancy fell to 91.7% in 1Q21 (vs. 92.4% in 4Q20 and 92.6% in 3Q20). PRIME has ~100% of cash rental income with built-in rental escalations averaging over +2% pa. Portfolio occupancy still well above Class-A office average of 84.3%. Rent collections remained robust at 99% with minimal rent concessions. Portfolio WALE stood at 4.3%Portfolio gearing stands at 33.8% (vs. 33.5% in 4Q20 and 32.7% in 3Q20) with average cost of debt of 2.8% pa. (vs. 2.7% in 4Q20 and 2.7% in 3Q20) and 90.0% of debt hedgedPRIME currently trades at 8.24% FY21E yield and 0.99x P/B.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (19May21) - PRIME robust operations metrics

Singapore

Propnex Limited operates as a real estate agency. The Company offers business strategies, consultation, training, marketing support, and technological innovations for real estate sector, as buying, selling, and renting of properties. Propnex serves customers in Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

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Propnex Ltd (PROP SP)

(Non-SGX Report) PropNex Ltd: Take a Pause

Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX. SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

(Non-SGX Report) PropNex Limited: Riding Strong Purchase Momentum

Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX. SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Propnex: As Good as It Gets?

Consensus is forecasting that 2021 will mark the peak earnings. At the last close price, we think that most of the positive expectations have been...

Arun George

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (11Aug21) - CAPL Gets Nod for Restructuring Plan

CAPL gets nod for restructuring plan; PROP robust earnings. pure-play on rising volume; Jul21 condo resale price, volume rising MoM; SG/Phils GDP...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (19May21) - PRIME robust operations metrics

PRIME robust operations metrics; CIT plans for GBP500m SREIT IPO; FIRT completes restructuring; Retail landlords roll out tenants support; China...

SCCM Asia Research

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