IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A media outlet that Reports on Deals reported that the consortium will offer HK$14.50 per share, a 22.1% and 61.8% premium to the last close (HK$11.88) and undisturbed price (HK$8.96).</li>
<li>While not a knockout offer, the consortium’s impending binding proposal suggests confidence that the offer price and structure would gain the support of the substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding. Its forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 30% discount to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


A media outlet that Reports on Deals reported that the consortium will offer HK$14.50 per share, a 22.1% and 61.8% premium to the last close (HK$11.88) and undisturbed price (HK$8.96).
While not a knockout offer, the consortium’s impending binding proposal suggests confidence that the offer price and structure would gain the support of the substantial shareholders. 
The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding. Its forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 30% discount to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/esr-bidders-said-to-weigh-bringing-in-more-investors-for-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> is on a trading halt. Press reports suggest a consortium featuring Starwood Capital Group and SSW Partners is considering a buyout.</li>
<li>Starwood and SSW are approaching other shareholders to join the consortium. The other members are likely Warburg Pincus, OMERS, Jinchu Shen, and Hwee Chiang Lim.</li>
<li>The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed. </li>
</ul>



ESR Group (1821 HK) is on a trading halt. Press reports suggest a consortium featuring Starwood Capital Group and SSW Partners is considering a buyout.
Starwood and SSW are approaching other shareholders to join the consortium. The other members are likely Warburg Pincus, OMERS, Jinchu Shen, and Hwee Chiang Lim.
The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed. 


ESR Group (1821 HK): Starwood Capital and SSW Partners Gauging a Privatisation Bid

<ul>
<li>On 21 February, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/esr-owners-said-to-mull-options-for-5-billion-logistics-firm?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that due to the steep share price declines, major <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> shareholders are considering options for their stakes, including ESR’s privatisation.</li>
<li>The reports also noted buyer interest in ESR’s significant assets. Past share dealings suggest that Warburg Pincus and the co-founders are the likely consortium to lead a potential privatisation. </li>
<li>The offer probability is low as a scheme would likely require a HK$16.00 offer, posing a funding challenge. Nevertheless, the upside remains as ESR trades at an undemanding valuation. </li>
</ul>


On 21 February, Bloomberg reported that due to the steep share price declines, major ESR Group (1821 HK) shareholders are considering options for their stakes, including ESR’s privatisation.
The reports also noted buyer interest in ESR’s significant assets. Past share dealings suggest that Warburg Pincus and the co-founders are the likely consortium to lead a potential privatisation. 
The offer probability is low as a scheme would likely require a HK$16.00 offer, posing a funding challenge. Nevertheless, the upside remains as ESR trades at an undemanding valuation. 


ESR Group (1821 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

China Logistics Property Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a></strong>'s <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0203/2022020300037.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Composite Document</a> has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.</li>
<li>The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.</li>
<li>Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. </li>
</ul>



China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)'s Composite Document has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.
The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.
Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. 


CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

United States

Prologis, Inc. is an owner, operator and developer of industrial real estate, focused on global and regional markets across the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Company also leases modern distribution facilities to customers, including manufacturers, retailers, transportation companies, third-party logistics providers and other enterprises.

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Prologis Inc (PLD US)

ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces

The rumoured price is not a knockout bid. However, the price and structure would be sufficient to get the support of the major shareholders. The...

Arun George

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

ESR Group (1821 HK): Starwood Capital and SSW Partners Gauging a Privatisation Bid

The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed.

Arun George

ESR Group (1821 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

The offer probability is low as a scheme would likely require a HK$16.00 offer, posing a funding challenge. Nevertheless, the upside remains as ESR...

Arun George

CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

This transaction is done. Trading 1% through terms, as it has done so since late last month. Should the share price dip below the MGO price, get...

David Blennerhassett

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