Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/663/original/Market%20Risk.png?1450243661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4663"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90</figcaption></figure>In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Lending Club, the leading loan marketplace that has epitomized the rise of the fintechs and its growth from startup to corporate status, went public in December 2014 raising $900 million.&nbsp;It is&nbsp;the flag bearer for all fintechs that has successfully&nbsp;navigated the tricky years from inception and&nbsp;private funding to the public market. Since its&nbsp;IPO at&nbsp;$15 per share, the company has seen lots of volatility in its share price, which at the time of writing this, sat below its pre-IPO price at $12.47 with an all time high of&nbsp;$29.29.&nbsp;Many have concluded that its share price trajectory&nbsp;is representative of the waning confidence in the broader fintech industry. Is there truth in this belief or is there more than what meets the eye about the darling of the fintech world? Let's take a look.

Lending Club, the leading loan marketplace that has epitomized the rise of the fintechs and its growth from startup to corporate status, went public in December 2014 raising $900 million.&nbsp;It is&nbsp;the flag bearer for all fintechs that has successfully&nbsp;navigated the tricky years from inception and&nbsp;private funding to the public market. Since its&nbsp;IPO at&nbsp;$15 per share, the company has seen lots of volatility in its share price, which at the time of writing this, sat below its pre-IPO price at $12.47 with an all time high of&nbsp;$29.29.&nbsp;Many have concluded that its share price trajectory&nbsp;is representative of the waning confidence in the broader fintech industry. Is there truth in this belief or is there more than what meets the eye about the darling of the fintech world? Let's take a look.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li>Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.</li><li>Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.</li><li>Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.</li><li>Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.</li></ul>Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

Financial technology firms, popularly called fintechs, refers to up and coming startups that use technology to make financial systems more efficient particularly in the area of personal banking. &nbsp;Over the past couple of years, they have become major drivers of the financial services industry since the advent of the global financial crisis and the deluge of regulations that followed it. With much euphoria around the fintechs and the ability of their counterparts from Silicon Valley to 'disrupt' industries and displace incumbents, these new-age financial technology companies are becoming ubiquitous. Transfer wise, for instance, offers a way to convert money and send it abroad at a lower cost than banks. At the end of 2014, it claims to have captured <a href="https://transferwise.com/blog/2015-06/transferwise-users-move-500-million-a-month-globally/" target="_blank">2% of the market share</a> in the U.K. with users moving half a billion pounds a month&nbsp;already. With many others like TransferWise moving into areas of traditional banking, this is an industry that is worth exploring further.

Financial technology firms, popularly called fintechs, refers to up and coming startups that use technology to make financial systems more efficient particularly in the area of personal banking. &nbsp;Over the past couple of years, they have become major drivers of the financial services industry since the advent of the global financial crisis and the deluge of regulations that followed it. With much euphoria around the fintechs and the ability of their counterparts from Silicon Valley to 'disrupt' industries and displace incumbents, these new-age financial technology companies are becoming ubiquitous. Transfer wise, for instance, offers a way to convert money and send it abroad at a lower cost than banks. At the end of 2014, it claims to have captured 2% of the market share in the U.K. with users moving half a billion pounds a month&nbsp;already. With many others like TransferWise moving into areas of traditional banking, this is an industry that is worth exploring further.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

United States

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide personal and commercial automobile insurance and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services throughout the United States.

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Progressive Corp (PGR US)

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

An Analysis on Lending Club

Lending Club, the leading loan marketplace that has epitomized the rise of the fintechs and its growth from startup to corporate status, went...

Ishita Jain

Breaking the Bank

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors. Financial...

Morningstar, Inc.

The Case for Fintechs

Financial technology firms, popularly called fintechs, refers to up and coming startups that use technology to make financial systems more...

Ishita Jain

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region...

Emad Mostaque

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)