IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden is offering an all-cash offer of S$2.36 or cash &amp; units offer to comprise S$1.602 in cash and 0.782 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sph-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP)</a> units per SPH share (worth S$2.40).</li>
<li>SPH independent directors preliminarily recommend to shareholders to vote against the Keppel scheme and vote in favour of the Cuscaden scheme. Cuscaden’s offer will be implemented by February 2022. </li>
<li>Cuscaden’s revised offer options are attractive in the context of SPH’s long-term multiples/share prices and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>’s final offer. Cuscaden’s revised offer seems like a done deal. </li>
</ul>


Cuscaden is offering an all-cash offer of S$2.36 or cash &amp; units offer to comprise S$1.602 in cash and 0.782 SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) units per SPH share (worth S$2.40).
SPH independent directors preliminarily recommend to shareholders to vote against the Keppel scheme and vote in favour of the Cuscaden scheme. Cuscaden’s offer will be implemented by February 2022. 
Cuscaden’s revised offer options are attractive in the context of SPH’s long-term multiples/share prices and Keppel Corp (KEP SP)’s final offer. Cuscaden’s revised offer seems like a done deal. 


Cuscaden’s Revised Offer Options to End the Battle for SPH

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> announced a final and improved privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>. Keppel’s final offer bumps up the cash consideration 30% from S$0.668 cash per SPH share to S$0.868 cash per SPH share while keeping unchanged 0.596 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:192:1" rel="noopener">Keppel REIT (KREIT SP)</a> units per SPH share along with SPH distributing-in-specie 0.782 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sph-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP)</a> units per SPH share. Based on the last close price of Keppel REIT and SPH REIT, the total consideration is S$2.351 per SPH share, which is a 12.0% premium to the previous Keppel offer of S$2.099 per SPH share and a 12.0% premium to Cuscaden’s offer of S$2.10 cash per SPH share.</p><p>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sph-s-rival-offer-from-cuscaden" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59774" rel="noopener">SPH’s Rival Offer from Cuscaden</a>, on 29 October, SPH received a competing privatisation offer from Cuscaden at S$2.10 cash per SPH share. Since the announcement, SPH has facilitated due diligence to obtain a revised proposal from Cuscaden.</p><p>Keppel’s final offer requires SPH to hold its EGM and scheme meeting to vote on Keppel’s scheme by 8 December. Keppel has obtained all regulatory approvals and waived the MAC clause. SPH has recognised that Keppel’s final offer is superior to Cuscaden’s offer and will call for the scheme meeting.</p><p>We previously noted that Cuscaden’s offer has greater certainty of value as it is all cash, eliminates the risk of changing REIT unit prices (Keppel REIT and SPH REIT) and does any require further shareholders' approval on the part of Cuscaden (Keppel’s offer requires approval from Keppel shareholders). </p><p>However, since the announcement of Cuscaden’s offer, SPH REIT and Keppel REIT unit prices have increased by 4.6% and 1.8% respectively, increasing the combined value of the REIT units by S$0.047 per SPH share. SPH REIT also has a floor price due to the minimum chain offer price of S$0.964 per SPH REIT unit which Cuscaden is obliged to offer under its proposal. Crucially, the rising REIT unit prices had lifted Keppel’s previous offer ($2.15 at last close prices) above Cuscaden’s offer.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Keppel’s final offer is attractive in the context of SPH’s historical long-term multiples and share prices. Based on the SPH REIT and Keppel REIT traded prices since the announcement of Keppel’s previous offer, Keppel’s final offer implies a range of S$2.201-2.355 per SPH share. Under the terms of the final Keppel proposal, any competing offer by way of a scheme of arrangement must be signed by 16 November and any competing general offer must be announced by 1 December. Barring a material decline in the REIT unit prices, we think it will be difficult for Cuscaden to launch a more compelling all-cash offer. Overall, we think that Keppel’s final offer has a good probability to be the winning bid.  </p></div>

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) announced a final and improved privatisation offer from Keppel Corp (KEP SP). Keppel’s final offer bumps up the cash consideration 30% from S$0.668 cash per SPH share to S$0.868 cash per SPH share while keeping unchanged 0.596 Keppel REIT (KREIT SP) units per SPH share along with SPH distributing-in-specie 0.782 SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) units per SPH share. Based on the last close price of Keppel REIT and SPH REIT, the total consideration is S$2.351 per SPH share, which is a 12.0% premium to the previous Keppel offer of S$2.099 per SPH share and a 12.0% premium to Cuscaden’s offer of S$2.10 cash per SPH share.As discussed in SPH’s Rival Offer from Cuscaden, on 29 October, SPH received a competing privatisation offer from Cuscaden at S$2.10 cash per SPH share. Since the announcement, SPH has facilitated due diligence to obtain a revised proposal from Cuscaden.Keppel’s final offer requires SPH to hold its EGM and scheme meeting to vote on Keppel’s scheme by 8 December. Keppel has obtained all regulatory approvals and waived the MAC clause. SPH has recognised that Keppel’s final offer is superior to Cuscaden’s offer and will call for the scheme meeting.We previously noted that Cuscaden’s offer has greater certainty of value as it is all cash, eliminates the risk of changing REIT unit prices (Keppel REIT and SPH REIT) and does any require further shareholders' approval on the part of Cuscaden (Keppel’s offer requires approval from Keppel shareholders). However, since the announcement of Cuscaden’s offer, SPH REIT and Keppel REIT unit prices have increased by 4.6% and 1.8% respectively, increasing the combined value of the REIT units by S$0.047 per SPH share. SPH REIT also has a floor price due to the minimum chain offer price of S$0.964 per SPH REIT unit which Cuscaden is obliged to offer under its proposal. Crucially, the rising REIT unit prices had lifted Keppel’s previous offer ($2.15 at last close prices) above Cuscaden’s offer.  Keppel’s final offer is attractive in the context of SPH’s historical long-term multiples and share prices. Based on the SPH REIT and Keppel REIT traded prices since the announcement of Keppel’s previous offer, Keppel’s final offer implies a range of S$2.201-2.355 per SPH share. Under the terms of the final Keppel proposal, any competing offer by way of a scheme of arrangement must be signed by 16 November and any competing general offer must be announced by 1 December. Barring a material decline in the REIT unit prices, we think it will be difficult for Cuscaden to launch a more compelling all-cash offer. Overall, we think that Keppel’s final offer has a good probability to be the winning bid.  

Keppel’s Final Offer for SPH - Game, Set and Match?

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2><p>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/239/816/original/image_54862238621636079380984.png?1636079382" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="239816"></figure><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-global-commercial-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28292" rel="noopener">Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT SP)</a> 1Q22 Business Updates – Robust occupancy despite hiccups in tenant sales and shopper traffic</h3><ul><li>1Q22 Revenue, NPI, DPU and NAV numbers are not disclosed</li><li>Overall portfolio occupancy stood at 99.8% in 1Q22 (vs. 99.8% in 4Q21 and 99.7% in 3Q21), with a long WALE of 8.5 years by NLA and 4.4 years by GRI. Lease expiring in FY22E has been de-risked to 4% by NLA and 11% by GRI within 1Q22 period</li></ul>

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT SP) 1Q22 Business Updates – Robust occupancy despite hiccups in tenant sales and shopper traffic1Q22 Revenue, NPI, DPU and NAV numbers are not disclosedOverall portfolio occupancy stood at 99.8% in 1Q22 (vs. 99.8% in 4Q21 and 99.7% in 3Q21), with a long WALE of 8.5 years by NLA and 4.4 years by GRI. Lease expiring in FY22E has been de-risked to 4% by NLA and 11% by GRI within 1Q22 period

<p>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> announced a competing privatisation offer from Cuscaden at S$2.10 cash per SPH share, which is a 40.0% premium to the share price of S$1.50 on 30 March 2021 (announcement of SPH’s strategic review), an 11.7% premium to the share price of S$1.88 on 30 July (last trading day prior to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>’s offer) and a 5.5% premium to the share price of S$1.99 on 28 October (last close prior to the trading halt). </p><p>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sph-s-privatisation-by-keppel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55402" rel="noopener">SPH’s Privatisation by Keppel</a>, on 2 August, SPH announced a privatisation offer from Keppel. The transaction involves Keppel offering S$0.668 cash per SPH share and 0.596 Keppel REIT units per SPH share along with SPH distributing-in-specie 0.782 SPH REIT units per SPH share. Based on the last close price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:192:1" rel="noopener">Keppel REIT (KREIT SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sph-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP)</a>, the total consideration is S$2.104 per SPH share, a whisker above Cuscaden’s all-cash offer.  </p><p>The two privatisation proposals are the culmination of the SPH’s strategic review to unlock shareholder value. The strategic review commenced with the announcement of the media business restructuring announced on 6 May. Shareholder approval for the media business restructuring was obtained on 10 September and is expected to be completed in December. </p><p>While Cuscaden’s offer is broadly similar in value to Keppel’s offer, Cuscaden’s offer may be more appealing particularly to minorities. Cuscaden’s offer has greater certainty of value as it is all cash, eliminates the risk of changing REIT unit prices (Keppel REIT and SPH REIT) and does any require further shareholders' approval on the part of Cuscaden (Keppel’s offer requires approval from Keppel shareholders). Cuscaden’s offer will also not be reduced by the S$34 million break fee payable to Keppel. </p><p>SPH responded to Cuscaden’s offer by stating that it is "<em>not a firm offer</em>" and it has "<em>not entered into any definitive or binding agreement</em>" with Cuscaden. Keppel responded to Cuscaden’s offer by stating that “<em>we are reviewing the matter and make an announcement at an appropriate time.</em>”</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the event of a competing offer, Keppel has a switch option to proceed with the acquisition by way of an offer in lieu of proceeding with the acquisition by way of the scheme. We previously noted that the acquisition of SPH aligns with Keppel’s Vision 2030 of improving earnings quality, increasing scale and pursuing new growth initiatives. The modest premium of both competing offers to SPH’s historical long-term multiples and share prices suggests that there is room for Keppel to bump its offer and start a bidding war. </p></div>

Today, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) announced a competing privatisation offer from Cuscaden at S$2.10 cash per SPH share, which is a 40.0% premium to the share price of S$1.50 on 30 March 2021 (announcement of SPH’s strategic review), an 11.7% premium to the share price of S$1.88 on 30 July (last trading day prior to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)’s offer) and a 5.5% premium to the share price of S$1.99 on 28 October (last close prior to the trading halt). As discussed in SPH’s Privatisation by Keppel, on 2 August, SPH announced a privatisation offer from Keppel. The transaction involves Keppel offering S$0.668 cash per SPH share and 0.596 Keppel REIT units per SPH share along with SPH distributing-in-specie 0.782 SPH REIT units per SPH share. Based on the last close price of Keppel REIT (KREIT SP) and SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP), the total consideration is S$2.104 per SPH share, a whisker above Cuscaden’s all-cash offer.  The two privatisation proposals are the culmination of the SPH’s strategic review to unlock shareholder value. The strategic review commenced with the announcement of the media business restructuring announced on 6 May. Shareholder approval for the media business restructuring was obtained on 10 September and is expected to be completed in December. While Cuscaden’s offer is broadly similar in value to Keppel’s offer, Cuscaden’s offer may be more appealing particularly to minorities. Cuscaden’s offer has greater certainty of value as it is all cash, eliminates the risk of changing REIT unit prices (Keppel REIT and SPH REIT) and does any require further shareholders' approval on the part of Cuscaden (Keppel’s offer requires approval from Keppel shareholders). Cuscaden’s offer will also not be reduced by the S$34 million break fee payable to Keppel. SPH responded to Cuscaden’s offer by stating that it is "not a firm offer" and it has "not entered into any definitive or binding agreement" with Cuscaden. Keppel responded to Cuscaden’s offer by stating that “we are reviewing the matter and make an announcement at an appropriate time.”In the event of a competing offer, Keppel has a switch option to proceed with the acquisition by way of an offer in lieu of proceeding with the acquisition by way of the scheme. We previously noted that the acquisition of SPH aligns with Keppel’s Vision 2030 of improving earnings quality, increasing scale and pursuing new growth initiatives. The modest premium of both competing offers to SPH’s historical long-term multiples and share prices suggests that there is room for Keppel to bump its offer and start a bidding war. 

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>WeWork closes operations at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prime-us-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28144" rel="noopener">Prime US REIT (PRIME SP)</a> California property; Discussion over lease obligations ongoing</h3><p>PRIME is in discussions with tenant WeWork on the resolution of the latter's lease obligations at Tower 1 at Emeryville, a Class-A office property in California, after WeWork decided to close its co-working operation at the building. WeWork occupies 56,977sqft of space within the real estate investment trust's 3.89m sqft portfolio. The co-working operator also contributes about 2.5% of PRIME’s cash rental income as at 30Jun. WeWork previously approached the REIT with a proposal to restructure its lease. PRIME's security in relation to that WeWork lease consists of a combination of protections. If the counterparty honours its obligations, such protections will cover the tenant's monthly lease obligations through as much as end-2022.</p>

SingaporeWeWork closes operations at Prime US REIT (PRIME SP) California property; Discussion over lease obligations ongoingPRIME is in discussions with tenant WeWork on the resolution of the latter's lease obligations at Tower 1 at Emeryville, a Class-A office property in California, after WeWork decided to close its co-working operation at the building. WeWork occupies 56,977sqft of space within the real estate investment trust's 3.89m sqft portfolio. The co-working operator also contributes about 2.5% of PRIME’s cash rental income as at 30Jun. WeWork previously approached the REIT with a proposal to restructure its lease. PRIME's security in relation to that WeWork lease consists of a combination of protections. If the counterparty honours its obligations, such protections will cover the tenant's monthly lease obligations through as much as end-2022.

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Prime US REIT (PRIME SP)

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Arun George

Keppel’s Final Offer for SPH - Game, Set and Match?

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PRIME in-talks over WeWork lease; Parc Greenwich EC sold 65% at wkd launch; Aug21 new home sales fell 24% MoM; MEG launching 3 Luzon townships;...

SCCM Asia Research

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