Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Steel industry group is building momentum.  The turnaround started in April of last year after a severe drop post the early stage of COVID, but it is far from reaching even the previous highs of late 2018.  Only 55% of the funds in our analysis hold exposure to the Steel industry, 10% lower than in December 2018 and some 40% lower than early 2008.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa-7721577f-6c6a-4536-a829-92551c2bcd7f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27725:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE3 BZ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">Posco (005490 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> are the favoured stocks within the sector, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa-7721577f-6c6a-4536-a829-92551c2bcd7f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27725:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE3 BZ)</a> representing a good size underweight, on average.  All 3 stocks are still someway from previous peaks in ownership, so if this is a cycle similar to the one that lasted between early 2016 and late 2018, EM fund ownership has a lot further to run.

The Steel industry group is building momentum.  The turnaround started in April of last year after a severe drop post the early stage of COVID, but it is far from reaching even the previous highs of late 2018.  Only 55% of the funds in our analysis hold exposure to the Steel industry, 10% lower than in December 2018 and some 40% lower than early 2008.Vale SA (VALE3 BZ) , Posco (005490 KS) and Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) are the favoured stocks within the sector, with Vale SA (VALE3 BZ) representing a good size underweight, on average.  All 3 stocks are still someway from previous peaks in ownership, so if this is a cycle similar to the one that lasted between early 2016 and late 2018, EM fund ownership has a lot further to run.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.  Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">Posco (005490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.  Companies mentioned this week:TSMC (2330 TT), Tencent (700 HK), Posco (005490 KS), China Mobile (941 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK), China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 7 May 2021

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

We know that the Korea National Pension Service (NPS) is the nation's largest institutional investor, responsible for about 7% of the local equity market. But we often overlook the fact that it is also one of the largest institutional investors in the global coal industry.According to the joint report by several environmental organizations, including Urgewald and Reclaim France, the NPS is, in fact, the world's 11th-largest investor in the coal industry. The NPS currently invests ₩12.7T in total on the coal-related bonds and equity, of which ₩4T are invested in equity.There is news that the NPS will introduce a negative screening on the coal investment as early as the second half of this year.The upcoming Fund Management Committee meeting, chaired by the Minister of Health and Welfare of South Korea, is scheduled for April 30. It is the highest-level investment decision-making body within the NPS. The negative screening is officially one of the proposals to be discussed in the April 30 meeting.The Korea NPS governance structure<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/203/038/original/1.png?1619531424" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="203038"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">(Courtesy Korea NPS)</div>The chances are pretty high, given the current political mood under the left-winged administration. Coal will be a starter, likely followed by tobacco and mass destruction weapons soon.

We know that the Korea National Pension Service (NPS) is the nation's largest institutional investor, responsible for about 7% of the local equity market. But we often overlook the fact that it is also one of the largest institutional investors in the global coal industry.According to the joint report by several environmental organizations, including Urgewald and Reclaim France, the NPS is, in fact, the world's 11th-largest investor in the coal industry. The NPS currently invests ₩12.7T in total on the coal-related bonds and equity, of which ₩4T are invested in equity.There is news that the NPS will introduce a negative screening on the coal investment as early as the second half of this year.The upcoming Fund Management Committee meeting, chaired by the Minister of Health and Welfare of South Korea, is scheduled for April 30. It is the highest-level investment decision-making body within the NPS. The negative screening is officially one of the proposals to be discussed in the April 30 meeting.The Korea NPS governance structure(Courtesy Korea NPS)The chances are pretty high, given the current political mood under the left-winged administration. Coal will be a starter, likely followed by tobacco and mass destruction weapons soon.

Shorting Alert Amid Korea NPS Negative Screening on Coal: KEPCO, GS, OCI, Kumho P, LG Int, & POSCO

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
On 9 April, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/southkorea-nps/update-1-s-koreas-pension-fund-adjusts-rules-to-raise-domestic-equity-allocation-idUSL1N2M20EN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPS</a> announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.
NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.
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On 9 April, the NPS announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.
NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.


South Korea

POSCO manufactures various types of steel products.  The Company produces hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, and other forms of steel. The products are mainly used for automobile, construction, and shipbuilding industries.

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Posco ADR (PKX US)

EM Steel: Gaining Strength

The Steel industry group is building momentum. The turnaround started in April of last year after a severe drop post COVID, but it is far from...

Steven Holden

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 7 May 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Shorting Alert Amid Korea NPS Negative Screening on Coal: KEPCO, GS, OCI, Kumho P, LG Int, & POSCO

This post looks at the NPS-owned coal-heavy local stocks that will likely be subject to the NPS negative screening on coal.

Sanghyun Park

NPS Raises Domestic Equity Allocations

NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%. As a result of this change, the sale of...

Douglas Kim

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