Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li><em><strong>The biggest takeaway from President Yoon's address to the nation today was his focus on election integrity and election fraud. </strong></em></li>
<li>He was basically implying that the biggest reason for declaring a martial law was due to severe concerns about security breach issues at the National Election Commission.</li>
<li>One of the clear beneficiaries of President Yoon's speech today will be the cybersecurity sector.</li>
</ul>


The biggest takeaway from President Yoon's address to the nation today was his focus on election integrity and election fraud. 
He was basically implying that the biggest reason for declaring a martial law was due to severe concerns about security breach issues at the National Election Commission.
One of the clear beneficiaries of President Yoon's speech today will be the cybersecurity sector.


South Korean President Yoon's Address to the Nation: Focus on Election Integrity and Election Fraud

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.9 trillion won for LG CNS, representing target price of 81,095 won per share.</li>
<li>Therefore, our base case valuation target price of 81,095 won is 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>We estimate LG CNS to generate sales of 5.99 trillion won (up 6.8% YoY) and net profit of 356.1 billion won (up 7.1% YoY) in 2024.</li>
</ul>


According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.9 trillion won for LG CNS, representing target price of 81,095 won per share.
Therefore, our base case valuation target price of 81,095 won is 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
We estimate LG CNS to generate sales of 5.99 trillion won (up 6.8% YoY) and net profit of 356.1 billion won (up 7.1% YoY) in 2024.


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The KRW 5T-6T valuation and 13x-16x PER look solid compared to local peers like SDS and Hyundai AutoEver, with CNS possibly getting a premium due to its smaller captive stake.</li>
<li>Instos probably won’t push hard for lock-ups but will aggressively target pricing to secure larger allotments, knowing the company is likely to stick with a market-friendly price.</li>
<li>On a separate note, I wouldn’t expect much of a NAV discount reduction for LG Corp, as LG CNS’s stake isn’t significant enough to move the needle.</li>
</ul>


The KRW 5T-6T valuation and 13x-16x PER look solid compared to local peers like SDS and Hyundai AutoEver, with CNS possibly getting a premium due to its smaller captive stake.
Instos probably won’t push hard for lock-ups but will aggressively target pricing to secure larger allotments, knowing the company is likely to stick with a market-friendly price.
On a separate note, I wouldn’t expect much of a NAV discount reduction for LG Corp, as LG CNS’s stake isn’t significant enough to move the needle.


LG CNS IPO Details Out: My Read on This IPO

South Korea

Posco DX Company Ltd. provides information and technology services. The Company provides computer systems design, computer and server merchant wholesale, computer and office machine repair and maintenance services. Posco DX also offers eic engineering, smart factory, wireless networking equipment, steel manufacturing, and digital video recorder manufacturing services.

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Posco DX (022100 KS)

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

South Korean President Yoon's Address to the Nation: Focus on Election Integrity and Election Fraud

The biggest takeaway from President Yoon's address to the nation today was his focus on election integrity and election fraud.

Douglas Kim

LG CNS IPO Valuation Analysis

According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.9 trillion won for LG CNS, representing target price of 81,095...

Douglas Kim

LG CNS IPO Details Out: My Read on This IPO

The LG CNS IPO prospectus is officially out, and the pricing is right in line with market expectations. Here's my take on the deal.

Sanghyun Park

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