Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday and today, there have been observed cases in Korea that are suspected to be caused by a sudden drop in stock prices due to CFD liquidation trading.</li>
<li>Yesterday it was Celltrion with its two siblings, and today it is Posco DX. I have found candidates that may have similar stock price movements.</li>
<li>These candidates experienced a notable increase in their stock prices from late March to mid-April, and they have a relatively high margin transaction ratio.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday and today, there have been observed cases in Korea that are suspected to be caused by a sudden drop in stock prices due to CFD liquidation trading.
Yesterday it was Celltrion with its two siblings, and today it is Posco DX. I have found candidates that may have similar stock price movements.
These candidates experienced a notable increase in their stock prices from late March to mid-April, and they have a relatively high margin transaction ratio.


CFD Liquidation in Korea: Posco DX, Celltrion Siblings, and Potential Next Targets

<ul>
<li>NPS has expressed concerns about the wide risk range of the KOSDAQ 150 index, and there has been speculation about whether they will take advantage of the KOSDAQ Global Index.</li>
<li>The launch of these ETFs should be closely watched as it could potentially be a turning point in the investment patterns of local pension funds in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>It may be worth considering the constituents included in this index where the NPS ownership stake does not reach 5%.</li>
</ul>


NPS has expressed concerns about the wide risk range of the KOSDAQ 150 index, and there has been speculation about whether they will take advantage of the KOSDAQ Global Index.
The launch of these ETFs should be closely watched as it could potentially be a turning point in the investment patterns of local pension funds in KOSDAQ.
It may be worth considering the constituents included in this index where the NPS ownership stake does not reach 5%.


Potential Changes to NPS's KOSDAQ Benchmark with the Launch of KOSDAQ Global Index ETFs

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, and KRX 300 rebalance changes today. Lotte Confectionery will be added and Samyang Holdings will be deleted from the KOSPI 200 index.</li>
<li>The rebalances of these Korean indices are regularly updated twice a year. The changes to these indices will be effective starting 9 December. </li>
<li>The potential exclusion candidates for KOSPI 200 in 2023 include K Car, Handsome, HS Enterprise, Zinus, and Hyundai Home Shopping. </li>
</ul>


Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, and KRX 300 rebalance changes today. Lotte Confectionery will be added and Samyang Holdings will be deleted from the KOSPI 200 index.
The rebalances of these Korean indices are regularly updated twice a year. The changes to these indices will be effective starting 9 December. 
The potential exclusion candidates for KOSPI 200 in 2023 include K Car, Handsome, HS Enterprise, Zinus, and Hyundai Home Shopping. 


KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Changes + KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Exclusion Candidates in 2023

Cross Asset Strategy

The Korea Exchange announced its KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances today. There were 17 new additions and 17 deletions for KOSDAQ150. Most of the stocks that were expected to be included in KOSDAQ 150 were officially included in the rebalance. However there were a few surprises. For example <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanos-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16796:1" rel="noopener">Nanos Co Ltd (151910 KS),</a>which was one of the stocks that was expected to be included in KOSDAQ150, did not get included in this indext this time. On the other hand, the following stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sang-a-frontec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20692:1" rel="noopener">Sang A Frontec (089980 KS)</a>, Novarex (194700 KS(, CIS (222080 KS), MedPacto (215980 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koreacenter-com-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28329:1" rel="noopener">Koreacenter.com Co Ltd (290510 KS)</a>, and Soulbrain (357780 KS) which were not on the top of the lists of getting selected into the KOSDAQ150 index by the locals, were formally selected be part of the new KOSDAQ150 inclusions.  The Korea Exchange also made changes to the KRX300 index. Although the KRX300 index is not currently as important as KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 indices, it is increasingly gaining in importance among the local institutional investors. The KRX300 had 33 new additions and 35 deletions.

The Korea Exchange announced its KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances today. There were 17 new additions and 17 deletions for KOSDAQ150. Most of the stocks that were expected to be included in KOSDAQ 150 were officially included in the rebalance. However there were a few surprises. For example Nanos Co Ltd (151910 KS),which was one of the stocks that was expected to be included in KOSDAQ150, did not get included in this indext this time. On the other hand, the following stocks including Sang A Frontec (089980 KS), Novarex (194700 KS(, CIS (222080 KS), MedPacto (215980 KS), Koreacenter.com Co Ltd (290510 KS), and Soulbrain (357780 KS) which were not on the top of the lists of getting selected into the KOSDAQ150 index by the locals, were formally selected be part of the new KOSDAQ150 inclusions.  The Korea Exchange also made changes to the KRX300 index. Although the KRX300 index is not currently as important as KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 indices, it is increasingly gaining in importance among the local institutional investors. The KRX300 had 33 new additions and 35 deletions. 

KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 Indices Rebalances (Overlapping Additions & Deletions)

Equity Capital Markets

Hanwha Systems Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

The Hanwha System IPO is one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2019.Our base case valuation of Hanwha Systems is 16,322 won per share or 1.8 trillion won in market cap. This represents a 24% upside from the mid-point of the IPO price range of 12,250 won to 14,000 won. Because of the excellent solid upside potential compared to the IPO price range, we have a positive view of the Hanwha Systems IPO.Our base case valuation is based on a 9.3x EV/EBITDA multiple using our estimated EBITDA of 138.5 billion won in 2020. The 9.3x EV/EBITDA multiple is based on a 10% premium to the comps' average valuation multiple in 2020. Because Hanwha Systems has better metrics than the comps in four out of five fundamental factors, we believe Hanwha Systems should trade at premium valuation multiples versus its peers.Finally, one of the clear positive signals that this Hanwha Systems IPO will become a success is the performance of its parent company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-aerospace-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:504:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)</a> whose stock price is up 27% YTD. In the midst of a weak stock market for KOSPI this year, this excellent stock price performance of Hanwha Aerospace could be a leading indicator of an excellent demand for the Hanwha Systems IPO.

The Hanwha System IPO is one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2019.Our base case valuation of Hanwha Systems is 16,322 won per share or 1.8 trillion won in market cap. This represents a 24% upside from the mid-point of the IPO price range of 12,250 won to 14,000 won. Because of the excellent solid upside potential compared to the IPO price range, we have a positive view of the Hanwha Systems IPO.Our base case valuation is based on a 9.3x EV/EBITDA multiple using our estimated EBITDA of 138.5 billion won in 2020. The 9.3x EV/EBITDA multiple is based on a 10% premium to the comps' average valuation multiple in 2020. Because Hanwha Systems has better metrics than the comps in four out of five fundamental factors, we believe Hanwha Systems should trade at premium valuation multiples versus its peers.Finally, one of the clear positive signals that this Hanwha Systems IPO will become a success is the performance of its parent company Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) whose stock price is up 27% YTD. In the midst of a weak stock market for KOSPI this year, this excellent stock price performance of Hanwha Aerospace could be a leading indicator of an excellent demand for the Hanwha Systems IPO. 

South Korea

Posco DX Company Ltd. provides information and technology services. The Company provides computer systems design, computer and server merchant wholesale, computer and office machine repair and maintenance services. Posco DX also offers eic engineering, smart factory, wireless networking equipment, steel manufacturing, and digital video recorder manufacturing services.

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Posco DX (022100 KS)

CFD Liquidation in Korea: Posco DX, Celltrion Siblings, and Potential Next Targets

This post investigates what might have happened to Posco DX today and Celltrion siblings yesterday, which are suspected of being the victim of CFD...

Sanghyun Park

Potential Changes to NPS's KOSDAQ Benchmark with the Launch of KOSDAQ Global Index ETFs

This post investigates the possibility of changes to NPS's benchmark for KOSDAQ investments due to the launch of KOSDAQ Global Index ETFs.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Changes + KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Exclusion Candidates in 2023

Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, and KRX 300 rebalance changes today. Lotte Confectionery will be added and Samyang Holdings...

Douglas Kim

KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 Indices Rebalances (Overlapping Additions & Deletions)

We highlight the KOSDAQ150 and KRX300 indices rebalances. There are some interesting new names, especially among those that are over lapping in...

Douglas Kim

Hanwha Systems IPO Valuation Analysis

The Hanwha System IPO is one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2019.Our base case valuation of Hanwha Systems is 16,322 won per share or 1.8 trillion...

Douglas Kim

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