Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Pop Mart International Group L / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSCI index has seen an outperformance of the consumer discretionary sector since the stimulus announcement while materials and energy sectors have lagged.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> announced a blow out 3Q24 revenue number with international revenue up by over 400%. DB raised the its target price to $88.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> was maintained a BUY by Huatai, raising its target price to $28.81.   JP Morgan maintained  OVERWEIGHT on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology (9901 HK).</a>
</li>
</ul>


HSCI index has seen an outperformance of the consumer discretionary sector since the stimulus announcement while materials and energy sectors have lagged.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) announced a blow out 3Q24 revenue number with international revenue up by over 400%. DB raised the its target price to $88.


Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) was maintained a BUY by Huatai, raising its target price to $28.81.   JP Morgan maintained  OVERWEIGHT on New Oriental Education &amp; Technology (9901 HK).



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 30)

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.</li>
<li>Despite weak consumer spending in China, there are a few bright spots—an example is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)'s</a> strong sales growth partly driven by the "red lipstick effect."</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a>’s stock plunged early last week but quickly recovered, reinforcing our view that its deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yonghui-superstores-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15910:1" rel="noopener">Yonghui Superstores Co., (601933 CH)</a> has some promise.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
Despite weak consumer spending in China, there are a few bright spots—an example is Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)'s strong sales growth partly driven by the "red lipstick effect."

Miniso (MNSO US)’s stock plunged early last week but quickly recovered, reinforcing our view that its deal with Yonghui Superstores Co., (601933 CH) has some promise.


Weekly Consumer Tales: Pop Mart's Unique Appeal-Miniso's Yonghui Buy-China Stimulus-MTR's Spicy IPO

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>The thesis for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> is the successful expansion of its international business, which made up 13% of sales in 1H23 but is growing exponentially. </li>
<li>This has been proved true in the latest announced 2023 results, with a 135% growth in 2023 for the international business, and a further &gt;100% growth guidance for 2024.</li>
<li>The company is trading at 24x 2024 earnings, assuming a 35% net profit growth in 2024. </li>
</ul>


The thesis for Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) is the successful expansion of its international business, which made up 13% of sales in 1H23 but is growing exponentially. 
This has been proved true in the latest announced 2023 results, with a 135% growth in 2023 for the international business, and a further &gt;100% growth guidance for 2024.
The company is trading at 24x 2024 earnings, assuming a 35% net profit growth in 2024. 


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  International Expansion Is For Real

<ul>
<li>Bearish sentiment in Hong Kong declined during the carry trade sell off.</li>
<li>Low Volatility, High Dividend and Value factors have continue to be profitable strategies in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> all reported solid operating and financial news leading to BUY recommendations.
</li>
</ul>


Bearish sentiment in Hong Kong declined during the carry trade sell off.
Low Volatility, High Dividend and Value factors have continue to be profitable strategies in Hong Kong.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) , Techtronic Industries (669 HK) and Giant Biogene (2367 HK) all reported solid operating and financial news leading to BUY recommendations.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

<ul>
<li>In 1Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a>'s international sales grew around 250% yoy, and made up around one quarter of sales (vs. 17% of sales in 2023). </li>
<li>I now expect 39% sales growth in 2024, driven by 140% yoy growth in the international business and 18% growth in domestic China business. </li>
<li>I further expect a 50% yoy growth in net profit growth in 2024 driven by a 0.8ppt increase in gross margin and 0.5ppt in operating leverage. </li>
</ul>


In 1Q24, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)'s international sales grew around 250% yoy, and made up around one quarter of sales (vs. 17% of sales in 2023). 
I now expect 39% sales growth in 2024, driven by 140% yoy growth in the international business and 18% growth in domestic China business. 
I further expect a 50% yoy growth in net profit growth in 2024 driven by a 0.8ppt increase in gross margin and 0.5ppt in operating leverage. 


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Accelerating Momentum Internationally; Raising My Estimates

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

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Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 30)

The consumer discretionary sector shows increased momentum in Hong Kong. Pop Mart beat on 3Q revenue with 440% growth in revenue outside China....

David Mudd

Weekly Consumer Tales: Pop Mart's Unique Appeal-Miniso's Yonghui Buy-China Stimulus-MTR's Spicy IPO

Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer...

Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart (9992 HK): International Expansion Is For Real

The founder and CEO of Pop Mart, Wang Ning attended the sixth meeting of the Sino-French Entrepreneurs Committee in France and as part of Xi's...

Steve

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

Hong Kong markets were resilient during the carry trade global sell off losing less than 2%. Pop Mart and Techtronic posted good results for 1H...

David Mudd

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Accelerating Momentum Internationally; Raising My Estimates

In 1Q24, Pop Mart International (9992 HK)'s international sales grew around 250% yoy, and made up around one quarter of sales (vs. 17% of sales in...

Steve

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