Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.</li><li>Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.</li><li>High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

<ul><li>Beijing further relaxed its property policy by cutting down payment ratio by 10- 15ppt and mortgage rate by 30-55 bps (Figure 9), aligning with that in SH and SZ.</li><li>This was well expected by market and our previous report. Based on our policy relaxation timetable, we think BJ, SZ and SH still have room to relax on purchase restrictions.</li><li>High-frequency data suggests a more pronounced recovery near the end of June, mainly driven by the combined effects of policy incentives, centralized online registration in mid-year and the low base. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Beijing further relaxed its property policy by cutting down payment ratio by 10- 15ppt and mortgage rate by 30-55 bps (Figure 9), aligning with that in SH and SZ.This was well expected by market and our previous report. Based on our policy relaxation timetable, we think BJ, SZ and SH still have room to relax on purchase restrictions.High-frequency data suggests a more pronounced recovery near the end of June, mainly driven by the combined effects of policy incentives, centralized online registration in mid-year and the low base. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Beijing Further Relaxed, Policy Easing Bore Fruit in Shanghai

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Midea Real Estate Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 25 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-real-estate-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27450:1" rel="noopener">Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)</a> disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&amp;S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).</li>
<li>The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).</li>
<li>Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group's estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.</li>
</ul>


On 25 June, Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&amp;S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).
The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).
Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group's estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value

<ul><li>NBS data in 5M24 weakened as market expected.</li><li>The REI decline widened to -10.1% from -9.8% in 4M24 given stagnant land purchases and new starts.</li><li>The GFA completion decline narrowed on a low base but the scale was still the lowest since Jun-22 given less funding support for “home delivery”. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS data in 5M24 weakened as market expected.The REI decline widened to -10.1% from -9.8% in 4M24 given stagnant land purchases and new starts.The GFA completion decline narrowed on a low base but the scale was still the lowest since Jun-22 given less funding support for “home delivery”. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - NBS 5M24: REI continued weakening, sales structure remained skewed to higher-tier cities

China

Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. provides property services. The Company offers property management, property projects pre-consultation, post-delivery evaluation and analysis, professional equipment and facilities maintenance, housekeeping, and other services. Poly Property Services provides services in China.

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Poly Property Services (6049 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

For stocks, we recommend asset-light companies benefiting from the existing market such as CR MixC, Poly Services, Binjiang Services, Onewo, BEKE...

CMB International

Property - Weekly Highlight: Beijing Further Relaxed, Policy Easing Bore Fruit in Shanghai

Beijing further relaxed its property policy by cutting down payment ratio by 10- 15ppt and mortgage rate by 30-55 bps (Figure 9), aligning with...

CMB International

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value

After the distribution of the asset-heavy business, Midea RE will remain listed as an asset-light business, estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The...

Arun George

Property - NBS 5M24: REI continued weakening, sales structure remained skewed to higher-tier cities

NBS data in 5M24 weakened as market expected. The REI decline widened to -10.1% from -9.8% in 4M24 given stagnant land purchases and new starts.

CMB International

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