Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> fiasco back in October, Hong Kong M&amp;As have received some welcome Xmas cheer of late.</li>
<li>Small-Cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cm-hi-tech-cleanroom-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44057:1" rel="noopener">CM Hi-Tech  (2115 HK)</a> secured reg approvals in record time. Then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>'s pre-cons were satisfied on 13th December. Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)</a>'s pre-cons are also fulfilled. </li>
<li>Henlius' spread narrowed after securing NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; and again after fulfilling pre-cons this week. A 3.1% gross spread is okay. This is done. Get involved.</li>
</ul>


After the China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) fiasco back in October, Hong Kong M&amp;As have received some welcome Xmas cheer of late.
Small-Cap CM Hi-Tech  (2115 HK) secured reg approvals in record time. Then CPMC (906 HK)'s pre-cons were satisfied on 13th December. Now Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)'s pre-cons are also fulfilled. 
Henlius' spread narrowed after securing NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; and again after fulfilling pre-cons this week. A 3.1% gross spread is okay. This is done. Get involved.


Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>$4.60/Share. That's the number - by way of a Scheme - that only matters. Below the recently rumoured $6/share, and $5.10/share a little over three years ago. Terms are final.</li>
<li>As widely expected, the Offeror is SASAC-managed China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation (CNPGC), indirectly owning 32.46% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> (TCM) via Sinopharm Group Hongkong,</li>
<li>Optically, the Offer price appears light. But this should still get up. TCM is trading rich to peers. No other competing bidder will emerge. Expect regulatory pre-cons to be fast-tracked.</li>
</ul>


$4.60/Share. That's the number - by way of a Scheme - that only matters. Below the recently rumoured $6/share, and $5.10/share a little over three years ago. Terms are final.
As widely expected, the Offeror is SASAC-managed China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation (CNPGC), indirectly owning 32.46% in China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (TCM) via Sinopharm Group Hongkong,
Optically, the Offer price appears light. But this should still get up. TCM is trading rich to peers. No other competing bidder will emerge. Expect regulatory pre-cons to be fast-tracked.


TCM (570 HK): Sinopharm's $4.60/Share Offer

<ul>
<li>Back on the 4th December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1204/2023120402335.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional privatisation at HK$3.50 per H-share, a chunky 104.68% premium to last close and around a six-year high</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions - regulatory approval from NDRC, MoC and SAFE - have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0117/2024011700598.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fulfilled</a>. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 24 January. </li>
<li>This Offer is a Merger by Absorption incorporating a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition. Prudence Investment Management, which has now built a<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0116/2024011600213.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 9.79% stake</a>, will be supportive.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 4th December, Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation at HK$3.50 per H-share, a chunky 104.68% premium to last close and around a six-year high
Pre-Conditions - regulatory approval from NDRC, MoC and SAFE - have now been fulfilled. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 24 January. 
This Offer is a Merger by Absorption incorporating a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition. Prudence Investment Management, which has now built a 9.79% stake, will be supportive.


Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Payment (Perhaps) Late March

<ul>
<li>After shares were suspended on the 27 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a> has now announced a pre-conditional privatisation at <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1204/2023120402335.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK$3.50 per H-share</a>.</li>
<li>This Offer, from its parent, is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which incorporates a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition.
</li>
<li>The Offer Price is a premium to last close is a hefty 104.68%. and around a six-year high. This is done. </li>
</ul>


After shares were suspended on the 27 November, Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK) has now announced a pre-conditional privatisation at HK$3.50 per H-share.
This Offer, from its parent, is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which incorporates a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition.

The Offer Price is a premium to last close is a hefty 104.68%. and around a six-year high. This is done. 


Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)’s Pre-Conditional Merger By Absorption

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

China

Poly Culture Group Corp Ltd is a culture and art enterprise in China. The Company provides performance and large-scale activities, organization and planning, creative design production, theatre management and construction consultation, cultural relics collections, artwork business and auction, cinema circuit and cinema investment operations in China.

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Poly Culture Group Corp H (3636 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

A 3.1% gross spread with expected payment around mid-Feb is okay. I'd pay up to HK$24.10/share for a 15% annualised spread. This is done. Get...

David Blennerhassett

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Payment (Perhaps) Late March

Further evidence Prudence is in Weiqiao for the spread. They're now at 10.2245% (18 Jan). They cleared 10% (of the H-shares) - and hence a blocking...

David Blennerhassett

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)’s Pre-Conditional Merger By Absorption

If history is any indication, Prudence (now with 9.79% of shares out) is expected to be supportive of the Offer for Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)....

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

A 3.1% gross spread with expected payment around mid-Feb is okay. I'd pay up to HK$24.10/share for a 15% annualised spread. This is done. Get...

David Blennerhassett

TCM (570 HK): Sinopharm's $4.60/Share Offer

This Offer from Sinopharm looks done. Bid up to ~HK$4.42, or a 4%/12% gross/annualised return, assuming late June completion.

David Blennerhassett

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Payment (Perhaps) Late March

Further evidence Prudence is in Weiqiao for the spread. They're now at 10.2245% (18 Jan). They cleared 10% (of the H-shares) - and hence a blocking...

David Blennerhassett

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)’s Pre-Conditional Merger By Absorption

If history is any indication, Prudence (now with 9.79% of shares out) is expected to be supportive of the Offer for Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)....

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett