IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)</a> has launched its HKEx listing atHK$24.30-27.70 per share to raise up to US$80 million, materially below previous expectations of a US$500 million raise.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81963" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82037" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82648" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look</a>.</li>
<li>The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. </li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK) has launched its HKEx listing atHK$24.30-27.70 per share to raise up to US$80 million, materially below previous expectations of a US$500 million raise.
We previously discussed the IPO in Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case, Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case andGiant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look.
The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)</a>, a leading professional skin care product manufacturer, is set to launch a US$500 million HKEx IPO.  </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81963" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82037" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Giant Biogene's potential valuation range. </li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK), a leading professional skin care product manufacturer, is set to launch a US$500 million HKEx IPO.  
We previously discussed the IPO in Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case and Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Giant Biogene's potential valuation range. 


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The latest rally in Japanese cosmetics, driven by improving domestic market conditions has strangely avoided two of the big names in the market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> &amp; Pola Orbis.</li>
<li>Although both of these names seem to offer big upside potential, we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)</a> has a significantly better risk-reward profile in the short term.</li>
<li>We would also be inclined to hedge the market risk using <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> on the short side as the name has the biggest downside potential.</li>
</ul>


The latest rally in Japanese cosmetics, driven by improving domestic market conditions has strangely avoided two of the big names in the market, Shiseido Company (4911 JP) &amp; Pola Orbis.
Although both of these names seem to offer big upside potential, we think Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) has a significantly better risk-reward profile in the short term.
We would also be inclined to hedge the market risk using Kose Corp (4922 JP) on the short side as the name has the biggest downside potential.


Japanese Cosmetics: Trading Around Q3 Earnings

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.</li>
<li>This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.</li>
<li>This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.</li>
</ul>


As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.
This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.


2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)</a> is expanding its Travel Retail presence in the region to capitalise on the surge in demand from the recovery of air travel.</li>
<li>Inbound demand could also return to Japanese cosmetics through the reopening of Japan’s borders to tourists.</li>
<li> The sector is yet to break out from the downtrend. Investors willing to get in early could do that with Pola Orbis with limited downside risk. </li>
</ul>



Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) is expanding its Travel Retail presence in the region to capitalise on the surge in demand from the recovery of air travel.
Inbound demand could also return to Japanese cosmetics through the reopening of Japan’s borders to tourists.
 The sector is yet to break out from the downtrend. Investors willing to get in early could do that with Pola Orbis with limited downside risk. 


Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers

Japan

POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS INC. develops, manufactures and markets cosmetic products, centering in skincare  products. Under its multi-brand strategy, the Company holds nine cosmetic brands including POLA, prestige skincare brand, ORBIS, oil-free skincare brand, H2O PLUS and Jurlique.

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Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)

Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation Insights

The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price...

Arun George

Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look

Giant Biogene will launch its US$500 million HKEx IPO this week. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at its potential...

Arun George

Japanese Cosmetics: Trading Around Q3 Earnings

The latest rally in Japanese cosmetics, driven by improving domestic market conditions has strangely avoided two of the big names in the market,...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers

We think investors who want to get in early to the travel retail surge and the recovery of inbound demand should be better off with exposure to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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