Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make weekly and discuss the new recommendations as well as those we closed over the past month. We have made a total of 21 trade recommendations so far, of which 15 are in the money.

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make weekly and discuss the new recommendations as well as those we closed over the past month. We have made a total of 21 trade recommendations so far, of which 15 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – August 2021

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate in Czech Republic vs paying the 5-year rate in Poland via IRS. Poland’s rates have outperformed its regional peers on the back of the uber-dovish monetary policy stance of the central bank and the June CPI reading coming off slightly from May. We continue to find the nominal and real rates in Poland to be too low in comparison with other countries, particularly Czechia, and unlikely to sustain at current levels with inflation running hot on the back of easy monetary and fiscal policies.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate in Czech Republic vs paying the 5-year rate in Poland via IRS. Poland’s rates have outperformed its regional peers on the back of the uber-dovish monetary policy stance of the central bank and the June CPI reading coming off slightly from May. We continue to find the nominal and real rates in Poland to be too low in comparison with other countries, particularly Czechia, and unlikely to sustain at current levels with inflation running hot on the back of easy monetary and fiscal policies.

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 5y Vs Pay Poland 5y Rate

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make on a weekly basis and discuss those we closed last month. We have made a total of 18 trade recommendations so far, of which 13 are in the money.

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make on a weekly basis and discuss those we closed last month. We have made a total of 18 trade recommendations so far, of which 13 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Trade Ideas Performance Summary – July 2021

Poland's central bank held rates steady at the MPC meeting last month while Hungary and Czechia embarked on their tightening cycles. Rates in Poland have thus outperformed its counterparts, weighing on our trade recommendation to Receive Czech 2y vs Pay Poland 2y rate. We maintain the recommendation because we expect rates in Poland to catch up with its neighbors as the economy is rebounding strongly which should lead to persistent inflationary pressures.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Poland's central bank held rates steady at the MPC meeting last month while Hungary and Czechia embarked on their tightening cycles. Rates in Poland have thus outperformed its counterparts, weighing on our trade recommendation to Receive Czech 2y vs Pay Poland 2y rate. We maintain the recommendation because we expect rates in Poland to catch up with its neighbors as the economy is rebounding strongly which should lead to persistent inflationary pressures.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Interest Rates in Poland Diverge from Neighbors

In this note, we point out the best and worst performers among 10y rates in EM countries and connect their performance with their volatility-adjusted yields, allowing us to identify those that can perform well going forward.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In this note, we point out the best and worst performers among 10y rates in EM countries and connect their performance with their volatility-adjusted yields, allowing us to identify those that can perform well going forward.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: YTD Leaders and Laggards Among EM 10y Rates

Poland

A vanilla interest rate swap us an agreement between two counterparties to exchange cashflows (fixed vs floating) in the same currency. This agreement is often used by counterparties to change their fixed cashflows to floating or vice versa. The payments are made during the life of the swap in the frequency that is pre-established by the counterparties.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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PLN 2Y (PZSW2 CURNCY)

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – August 2021

We provide a performance update of all our trade recommendations along with discussing the new trades from last month. We have made a total of 21...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 5y Vs Pay Poland 5y Rate

Poland’s nominal and real rates are very low compared with other countries, particularly Czech, and are unlikely to sustain with inflation running...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Trade Ideas Performance Summary – July 2021

We provide a performance update of all our trade recommendations along with discussing those we closed last month. We have made a total of 18...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Interest Rates in Poland Diverge from Neighbors

Despite the rally in Poland's rates on the back of the dovish central bank, we continue to recommend paying Poland 2y rates against receiving Czech...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: YTD Leaders and Laggards Among EM 10y Rates

We connect the best and worst performers among 10y rates in EM countries with their volatility-adjusted yields, allowing us to identify those that...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)