Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Attractive Yield Pick-Up of EM Local Debt over DM

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – August 2021

Rates 10y Dashboard: Cross-Correlations Between EM Rates Drop

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 2y Vs Pay Poland 2y Rates

Rates 10y Dashboard: YTD Leaders and Laggards Among EM 10y Rates

Rates 10y Dashboard: Interest Rates in Poland Diverge from Neighbors

Rates 10y Dashboard: Poland’s Rates Need to Rise Further to Account for Inflation Risk

FX & Rates

<p>In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate in Czech Republic vs paying the 5-year rate in Poland via IRS. Poland’s rates have outperformed its regional peers on the back of the uber-dovish monetary policy stance of the central bank and the June CPI reading coming off slightly from May. We continue to find the nominal and real rates in Poland to be too low in comparison with other countries, particularly Czechia, and unlikely to sustain at current levels with inflation running hot on the back of easy monetary and fiscal policies.</p>

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate in Czech Republic vs paying the 5-year rate in Poland via IRS. Poland’s rates have outperformed its regional peers on the back of the uber-dovish monetary policy stance of the central bank and the June CPI reading coming off slightly from May. We continue to find the nominal and real rates in Poland to be too low in comparison with other countries, particularly Czechia, and unlikely to sustain at current levels with inflation running hot on the back of easy monetary and fiscal policies.

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 5y Vs Pay Poland 5y Rate

PLN 5Y

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 5y Vs Pay Poland 5y Rate