Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil anticipates a USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion dent on its Q2 earnings due to the industry-wide contraction in refining margins.</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil anticipates the USD 300 million to USD 700 million negative impact on earnings from lower gas prices to be offset by gains from higher oil prices.</li>
<li>Since acquiring Pioneer, Exxon more than doubled production to 1.3 mboepd from 2023. Full merger effects are expected in Q3.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil anticipates a USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion dent on its Q2 earnings due to the industry-wide contraction in refining margins.
Exxon Mobil anticipates the USD 300 million to USD 700 million negative impact on earnings from lower gas prices to be offset by gains from higher oil prices.
Since acquiring Pioneer, Exxon more than doubled production to 1.3 mboepd from 2023. Full merger effects are expected in Q3.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Profit Hit as Refining Margins Tighten

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.</li>
<li>Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.</li>
<li>The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).</li>
</ul>


Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.
Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.
The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).


ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pioneer-natural-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10341:1" rel="noopener">Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistra-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27958:1" rel="noopener">Vistra (VST US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 7 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings</a> stock price to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> is near the lows.</li>
</ul>


Following Exxon Mobil (XOM US)'s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Vistra (VST US) will be added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 7 May.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings stock price to Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) is near the lows.


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

United States

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

Price Gauge
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Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD US)

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Profit Hit as Refining Margins Tighten

Exxon expects rising oil prices to offset falling nat-gas prices. Shrinking refining margins to hurt profits by USD 1.1 – USD 1.5 billion. Strong...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

ExxonMobil's acquisition will lead to Vistra being added to the SPX. Marathon Digital is an inclusion to the SmallCap 600 index and there could be...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Profit Hit as Refining Margins Tighten

Exxon expects rising oil prices to offset falling nat-gas prices. Shrinking refining margins to hurt profits by USD 1.1 – USD 1.5 billion. Strong...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

​Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

ExxonMobil's acquisition will lead to Vistra being added to the SPX. Marathon Digital is an inclusion to the SmallCap 600 index and there could be...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...