Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.</li>
<li>Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.</li>
<li>Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.</li>
</ul>


Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.
Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.
Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.


Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Insurance Group  of / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weak results at Ping An Insurance across many divisions, with banking most important</li>
<li>Life and Health negative insurance revenue delta, not offset by insurance cost delta</li>
<li>Net asset growth is now at 5% YoY, from 9% YoY last year, from ~29% avg for years</li>
</ul>


Weak results at Ping An Insurance across many divisions, with banking most important
Life and Health negative insurance revenue delta, not offset by insurance cost delta
Net asset growth is now at 5% YoY, from 9% YoY last year, from ~29% avg for years


Ping An Insurance - Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> has jumped from 4% to 14% in the space of a week.</li>
<li>There has also been a jump in the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index and big inflows to mainland China ETF raising the possibility of National Team buying.</li>
<li>A stabilisation in onshore China markets could lead to the AH premium dropping back towards parity and we would gradually scale out of long A/ short H positions.</li>
</ul>


The premium of Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) to Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) has jumped from 4% to 14% in the space of a week.
There has also been a jump in the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index and big inflows to mainland China ETF raising the possibility of National Team buying.
A stabilisation in onshore China markets could lead to the AH premium dropping back towards parity and we would gradually scale out of long A/ short H positions.


Ping An A/​H Premium: Sell the A's, Buy the H's; National Team at Work?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongan-online-p-c-insurance-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23681:1" rel="noopener">ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK)</a> is benefiting from the cross-selling opportunities  generated through the eco-systems of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, its parent companies</li>
<li>Largest solely online insurance company in China with Rmb 30B gross premiums written in 2023.</li>
<li>Expertise and cross-selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> , another parent company with a jointly run auto insurance business.</li>
</ul>



ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK) is benefiting from the cross-selling opportunities  generated through the eco-systems of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK), its parent companies
Largest solely online insurance company in China with Rmb 30B gross premiums written in 2023.
Expertise and cross-selling from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) , another parent company with a jointly run auto insurance business.


Baba's Babies: Co-Parenting Works! Zhong An Online P&C Insurance

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.</li>
<li>Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). </li>
</ul>


A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.
Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

China

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

New China Life Insurance Company Limited provides life insurance in local and foreign currencies, acts as an insurance agent, provides checks, claims and insurance consulting. The Company's main products include life insurance, accident insurance, health insurance products and services.

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited, through its subsidiaries, offers a range of property and casualty insurance products. The Company also offers asset management services for a variety of customers throughout China.

China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation is a reinsurance company. The company operates four principal business segments, consisting of P&C reinsurance, life and health reinsurance, primary P&C insurance and asset management businesses.

ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co., Ltd. operates as an insurance company. The Company develops and sells health, airline, and automotive insurance, and other products. ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance also offers online consumer finance services.

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, investment banking, asset management, and investment consulting services.

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

Chubb Limited operates as a property and casualty insurance company. The Company provides commercial and personal property, casualty, and personal accident and supplemental health insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance to a diverse group of clients.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

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Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

Ping An Insurance - Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions

Ping An Insurance reported 1H23 results, with negative profit growth or losses across many divisions, only banking appears strong. Net asset growth...

Daniel Tabbush

Ping An A/H Premium: Sell the A's, Buy the H's; National Team at Work?

The AH premium on Ping An has increased from 4% to 14% in a week and the HSAHP Index has jumped too. Mainland China ETFs have taken in US$13bn+...

Brian Freitas

Baba's Babies: Co-Parenting Works! Zhong An Online P&C Insurance

Zhong An Online Insurance is experience rapid growth through cross selling opportunities from its part owners Alibaba, Tencent and Ping An, as well...

David Mudd

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

Ping An Insurance - Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions

Ping An Insurance reported 1H23 results, with negative profit growth or losses across many divisions, only banking appears strong. Net asset growth...

Daniel Tabbush

Ping An A/​H Premium: Sell the A's, Buy the H's; National Team at Work?

The AH premium on Ping An has increased from 4% to 14% in a week and the HSAHP Index has jumped too. Mainland China ETFs have taken in US$13bn+...

Brian Freitas

Baba's Babies: Co-Parenting Works! Zhong An Online P&C Insurance

Zhong An Online Insurance is experience rapid growth through cross selling opportunities from its part owners Alibaba, Tencent and Ping An, as well...

David Mudd

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

Ping An A/H Premium: Sell the A's, Buy the H's; National Team at Work?