Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.</li>
<li>Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.</li>
<li>Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.</li>
</ul>


Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.
Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.
Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> and listed in May 2018, has announced a<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1114/2024111400573.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> change in use of proceeds</a>.</li>
<li>Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.</li>
</ul>



Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) and listed in May 2018, has announced a change in use of proceeds.
Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.


2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) - The Arb Is To Take The Stock

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is considerable worsening in net profit, including from key divisions </li>
<li>Despite rising assets for Health and Life, profit in this core division is down a lot</li>
<li>Banking exposure is significant, with a poor outlook, and making Ping An less pure</li>
</ul>


There is considerable worsening in net profit, including from key divisions 
Despite rising assets for Health and Life, profit in this core division is down a lot
Banking exposure is significant, with a poor outlook, and making Ping An less pure


Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

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Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) - The Arb Is To Take The Stock

IF you like PA Gooddoctor, buy here. Or just buy irrespectively. Then either opt for the scrip dividend. Or perhaps take the dividend on 50% of...

David Blennerhassett

Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Expect earnings to be released soon. There remains considerable risk to core insurance operations, with worsening China and Hong Kong markets, but...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) - The Arb Is To Take The Stock

IF you like PA Gooddoctor, buy here. Or just buy irrespectively. Then either opt for the scrip dividend. Or perhaps take the dividend on 50% of...

David Blennerhassett

Ping An Insurance - Dramatic Worsening Key Areas, Big Bank Exposure, Macro Insurance Stats Are Poor

Expect earnings to be released soon. There remains considerable risk to core insurance operations, with worsening China and Hong Kong markets, but...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...