IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group Holdings (FWD US)</a> is a Pan-Asia insurer founded in 2013 by Richard Li. FWD is seeking to raise $2 billion through an NYSE IPO and a valuation between $13 billion and $15 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-ipo-forward-march" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58263" rel="noopener">FWD Group IPO: Forward March</a>, we stated that in the long-term, FWD’s compelling customer propositions and multi-channel distribution across different geographies within Asia will likely support further market share gains. FWD notes that there remains significant potential for cross-selling and up-selling to its millennial customers (59% of organic new individual policyholders in 1H21) as they advance through different life stages and gain spending power. On balance, we concluded that FWD has sufficient headroom to continue to gain market share while improving profitability. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>A successful listing of FWD will provide investors with a new proxy for Asian insurance growth vs well-established names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prudential-plc-4b9124ab-0799-4543-abca-bac6f31da5b6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34048:1" rel="noopener">Prudential PLC (2378 HK)</a>. Prudential’s recent oversubscribed share offer which raised US$2.4 billion in Hong Kong will help grow its investor base in Hong Kong and increase the liquidity of its shares on the HKEx. In this context, there is increasing interest in drawing comparisons between FWD, AIA and Prudential. In this note, we compare the insurers’ actuarial assumptions and key metrics across FWD’s key regions.  </p></div>

FWD Group Holdings (FWD US) is a Pan-Asia insurer founded in 2013 by Richard Li. FWD is seeking to raise $2 billion through an NYSE IPO and a valuation between $13 billion and $15 billion, according to press reports. In FWD Group IPO: Forward March, we stated that in the long-term, FWD’s compelling customer propositions and multi-channel distribution across different geographies within Asia will likely support further market share gains. FWD notes that there remains significant potential for cross-selling and up-selling to its millennial customers (59% of organic new individual policyholders in 1H21) as they advance through different life stages and gain spending power. On balance, we concluded that FWD has sufficient headroom to continue to gain market share while improving profitability. A successful listing of FWD will provide investors with a new proxy for Asian insurance growth vs well-established names such as AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and Prudential PLC (2378 HK). Prudential’s recent oversubscribed share offer which raised US$2.4 billion in Hong Kong will help grow its investor base in Hong Kong and increase the liquidity of its shares on the HKEx. In this context, there is increasing interest in drawing comparisons between FWD, AIA and Prudential. In this note, we compare the insurers’ actuarial assumptions and key metrics across FWD’s key regions.  

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Ping An A-shares <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH)</a> are trading at a 11% premium to the H-shares <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>. This continues the cycle of premiums and discounts going back to 2015.</p><p>The last time the A-shares traded at a premium this large to the H-shares was in December last year. By mid to late January, the A-shares were trading near parity versus the H-shares.</p><p>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH)</a> trading at a 11% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> the risk/reward is favourable to setting up a premium contraction trade. The current premium lies at the 95th percentile over the last 5 years and the premium has widened faster than that of the HSAHP Index.</p><p>Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect holdings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> have dropped sharply over the last couple of months, though there has been an uptick over the last couple of weeks.</p><p>In this Insight, we look at the historical premium for Ping An and compare it to the premium on the AH index and other large caps, and look at some catalysts that could lead to an contraction of the premium.</p>

The Ping An A-shares Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH) are trading at a 11% premium to the H-shares Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK). This continues the cycle of premiums and discounts going back to 2015.The last time the A-shares traded at a premium this large to the H-shares was in December last year. By mid to late January, the A-shares were trading near parity versus the H-shares.With Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH) trading at a 11% premium to Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) the risk/reward is favourable to setting up a premium contraction trade. The current premium lies at the 95th percentile over the last 5 years and the premium has widened faster than that of the HSAHP Index.Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect holdings of Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH) and Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) have dropped sharply over the last couple of months, though there has been an uptick over the last couple of weeks.In this Insight, we look at the historical premium for Ping An and compare it to the premium on the AH index and other large caps, and look at some catalysts that could lead to an contraction of the premium.

Ping An A/​H: Discount Turns to a BIG Premium

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

FWD Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. </p></div><div><p>FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia. Southeast Asia markets contributed over 40% of its Value of New Business (VNB) in 2020. It had served over 9.9m customers as of Jun 21.</p></div><div>
<div>In our previous note, we spoke about the positive  and negatives aspects of the deal in our earleir notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-the-positives-growing-fast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growing Fast</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-the-negatives-strategy-remains-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Strategy Remains Unclear </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a>.</div>
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<div>In this note we will talk about valuations.</div>
</div>

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia. Southeast Asia markets contributed over 40% of its Value of New Business (VNB) in 2020. It had served over 9.9m customers as of Jun 21.
In our previous note, we spoke about the positive  and negatives aspects of the deal in our earleir notes, FWD Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growing Fast, FWD Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Strategy Remains Unclear and FWD Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison.

In this note we will talk about valuations.


<div><p>FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. </p></div><div><p>FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia. Southeast Asia markets contributed over 40% of its Value of New Business (VNB) in 2020. It had served over 9.9m customers as of Jun 21.</p></div><div><div>In our previous note, we spoke about the positive  and negatives aspects of the deal in our earleir notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-the-positives-growing-fast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growing Fast</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-pre-ipo-the-negatives-strategy-remains-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FWD Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Strategy Remains Unclear</a>.</div></div><p></p><p>In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.</p>

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia. Southeast Asia markets contributed over 40% of its Value of New Business (VNB) in 2020. It had served over 9.9m customers as of Jun 21.In our previous note, we spoke about the positive  and negatives aspects of the deal in our earleir notes, FWD Pre-IPO - The Positives - Growing Fast and FWD Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Strategy Remains Unclear.In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

Beijing Airdoc Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-airdoc-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33524:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Airdoc Technology (BAT HK)</a> is a global market leader and pioneer in providing AI-empowered retina-based early detection, auxiliary diagnosis and health risk assessment solutions. The core product is Airdoc-AIFUNDUS which is an AI-based Software-as-a-Medical Device (SaMD) that uses deep learning algorithms to accurately detect and diagnose chronic diseases from retinal images. Airdoc-AIFUNDUS (1.0), the first version of the core product, was commercialised at the start of 2021. Airdoc is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. </p><p>Airdoc has a credible management team with a commendable track record in developing and commercialising AI technology. It also has several blue-chip backers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sogou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25996:1" rel="noopener">Sogou Inc (SOGO US)</a>, CITIC Securities, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, Lilly Asia, Lake Bleu Capital and OrbiMed. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Unlike most healthcare IPO hopefuls, Airdoc has recently commercially launched a version of its core product. With industry-leading sensitivity and specificity achieved in multi-centre clinical trials, Airdoc-AIFUNDUS has the potential to succeed in a competitive market. Overall, we believe that Airdoc is worth a closer look. </p></div>

Beijing Airdoc Technology (BAT HK) is a global market leader and pioneer in providing AI-empowered retina-based early detection, auxiliary diagnosis and health risk assessment solutions. The core product is Airdoc-AIFUNDUS which is an AI-based Software-as-a-Medical Device (SaMD) that uses deep learning algorithms to accurately detect and diagnose chronic diseases from retinal images. Airdoc-AIFUNDUS (1.0), the first version of the core product, was commercialised at the start of 2021. Airdoc is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. Airdoc has a credible management team with a commendable track record in developing and commercialising AI technology. It also has several blue-chip backers such as Fosun International (656 HK), Sogou Inc (SOGO US), CITIC Securities, Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Lilly Asia, Lake Bleu Capital and OrbiMed. Unlike most healthcare IPO hopefuls, Airdoc has recently commercially launched a version of its core product. With industry-leading sensitivity and specificity achieved in multi-centre clinical trials, Airdoc-AIFUNDUS has the potential to succeed in a competitive market. Overall, we believe that Airdoc is worth a closer look. 

Airdoc Technology IPO Initiation: Seeing the Light

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

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Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)

FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential

FWD is seeking to raise $2 billion through an NYSE IPO. In this note, we compare FWD, AIA and Pru’s actuarial assumptions and key metrics across...

Arun George

Ping An A/H: Discount Turns to a BIG Premium

Ping An A-shs are now trading at a 11% premium to the H-shs. This is in the 95th percentile and is partly driven by the buyback on A-shs. We like a...

Brian Freitas

FWD Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. In this note we will talk about our thoughts on...

Sumeet Singh

FWD Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Airdoc Technology IPO Initiation: Seeing the Light

Airdoc is seeking to raise $300m in an HKEx IPO. Airdoc has recently commercially launched a version of its core product. Overall, we believe that...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential

FWD is seeking to raise $2 billion through an NYSE IPO. In this note, we compare FWD, AIA and Pru’s actuarial assumptions and key metrics across...

Arun George

Ping An A/​H: Discount Turns to a BIG Premium

Ping An A-shs are now trading at a 11% premium to the H-shs. This is in the 95th percentile and is partly driven by the buyback on A-shs. We like a...

Brian Freitas

FWD Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. In this note we will talk about our thoughts on...

Sumeet Singh

FWD Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its US IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Airdoc Technology IPO Initiation: Seeing the Light

Airdoc is seeking to raise $300m in an HKEx IPO. Airdoc has recently commercially launched a version of its core product. Overall, we believe that...

Arun George

Ping An A/H: Discount Turns to a BIG Premium