IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Mixc Lifestyle / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-mixc-lifestyle-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29285:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK)</a>/CR Mixc is a Chinese property management and commercial operational service provider. CR Mixc was the fifth-largest Chinese property management companies as measured by property management service revenue in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The controlling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:418:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Land (1109 HK)</a>. </p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$18.60-22.30 per share, CR Mixc will have a market cap of HK$40,920-49,060 million ($5.3-6.3 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total proceeds are HK$11,004.7 million ($1.4 billion). </p></div><div><p>Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $650 million worth of the offer shares (44.8% of the offer shares at the IPO mid-point). The cornerstone investors are GIC, Hillhouse Capital, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>,  Cephei Capital, Matthews Funds, China Structural Reform Fund and GLP. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-resources-mixc-lifestyle-ipo-initiation-the-paradox-of-plenty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45244" rel="noopener">China Resources Mixc Lifestyle IPO Initiation: The Paradox of Plenty</a>, we stated that CR Mixc’s fundamentals are mixed, in our view. We label this insight bearish as our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at most at the low-end of the IPO price range. </p></div></div></div>

China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK)/CR Mixc is a Chinese property management and commercial operational service provider. CR Mixc was the fifth-largest Chinese property management companies as measured by property management service revenue in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The controlling shareholder is China Resources Land (1109 HK). At the proposed IPO price range of HK$18.60-22.30 per share, CR Mixc will have a market cap of HK$40,920-49,060 million ($5.3-6.3 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total proceeds are HK$11,004.7 million ($1.4 billion). Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $650 million worth of the offer shares (44.8% of the offer shares at the IPO mid-point). The cornerstone investors are GIC, Hillhouse Capital, Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK),  Cephei Capital, Matthews Funds, China Structural Reform Fund and GLP. In China Resources Mixc Lifestyle IPO Initiation: The Paradox of Plenty, we stated that CR Mixc’s fundamentals are mixed, in our view. We label this insight bearish as our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at most at the low-end of the IPO price range. 

China Resources Mixc Lifestyle IPO: Valuation Insights

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Challenges Ignored: </em></strong>Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An Insurance]. In typical fashion, the management of Ping An barely scratched the surface in their discussion of its weakened franchise;   </p><p><strong><em>*Only A Discussion On Life and P&amp;C: </em></strong>Management guided that Ping An Life (PAL) will have positive Value of New Business (VONB) growth for 2021, as a beneficiary of health reforms. It sees a number of new digital tools empowering agents in sales and customer development, in addition to improving agency recruitment. For Ping An P&amp;C, management guided that the full-year combined ratio would be “slightly higher” than the 99.1% posted through 3Q20. This means that Ping An P&amp;C likely will be loss making on an operational basis if the combined ratio exceeds 100%; and</p><p><strong><em>* Move Along, Nothing To See Here:</em></strong> There was no discussion of the following: 1) Continued weakness in Ping An Life’s results; 2) It being  a finalist to acqure Tahoe Insurance in Hong Kong; 3) technology platform; credit insurance risk; and the capital contrained Ping An Bank. </p>

*Challenges Ignored: Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An Insurance]. In typical fashion, the management of Ping An barely scratched the surface in their discussion of its weakened franchise;   *Only A Discussion On Life and P&amp;C: Management guided that Ping An Life (PAL) will have positive Value of New Business (VONB) growth for 2021, as a beneficiary of health reforms. It sees a number of new digital tools empowering agents in sales and customer development, in addition to improving agency recruitment. For Ping An P&amp;C, management guided that the full-year combined ratio would be “slightly higher” than the 99.1% posted through 3Q20. This means that Ping An P&amp;C likely will be loss making on an operational basis if the combined ratio exceeds 100%; and* Move Along, Nothing To See Here: There was no discussion of the following: 1) Continued weakness in Ping An Life’s results; 2) It being  a finalist to acqure Tahoe Insurance in Hong Kong; 3) technology platform; credit insurance risk; and the capital contrained Ping An Bank. 

Ping An Insurance – Avoiding The Hard Questions

<p><strong>*Virtual Call Does Little To Quell Concerns: </strong>Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA]. In typical fashion, the management of AIA only discussed the positives neglecting many of the market realities;   </p><p><strong><em>*Mainland China Expansion and ASEAN Margins In Focus: </em></strong>According to management, the mainland Chinese expansion is of course progressing well as it plans three regional hubs - Beijing, Shanghai and recently approved Sichuan branch - to act as business centers. As discussed at the latest 3Q20 earnings release and now re-discussed, VONB margins have been increasing in select ASEAN markets; and</p><p><strong><em>*Elephants In The Room: </em></strong>Given both the earnings and balance sheet headwinds, who really cares about how many agents were added in mainland China? What was not discussed: negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; the bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; the flailing Hong Kong flagship; and its USD-based investment portfolio.  </p>

*Virtual Call Does Little To Quell Concerns: Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA]. In typical fashion, the management of AIA only discussed the positives neglecting many of the market realities;   *Mainland China Expansion and ASEAN Margins In Focus: According to management, the mainland Chinese expansion is of course progressing well as it plans three regional hubs - Beijing, Shanghai and recently approved Sichuan branch - to act as business centers. As discussed at the latest 3Q20 earnings release and now re-discussed, VONB margins have been increasing in select ASEAN markets; and*Elephants In The Room: Given both the earnings and balance sheet headwinds, who really cares about how many agents were added in mainland China? What was not discussed: negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; the bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; the flailing Hong Kong flagship; and its USD-based investment portfolio.  

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Financials and Health Care stocks, and decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Communication Services, Information Technology and Real Estate names.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20185:1" rel="noopener">Miura Co Ltd (6005 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-corp-aichi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12942:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Machine Mfg (6134 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1" rel="noopener">Casio Computer (6952 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Financials, while shorts were covered on Consumer Staples.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were seen on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-chemicals-co-ltd-new" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26190:1" rel="noopener">Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-oil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1667:1" rel="noopener">S Oil Corp (010950 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wiwynn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27838:1" rel="noopener">Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/century-iron-steel-indus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8853:1" rel="noopener">Century Iron &amp; Steel Indus (9958 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-petrochemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20875:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) and Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) while there was short covering on Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK). Shorts increased in Financials and Health Care stocks, and decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Communication Services, Information Technology and Real Estate names.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP), Mercari Inc (4385 JP) and Miura Co Ltd (6005 JP) while shorts decreased on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Fuji Machine Mfg (6134 JP), Casio Computer (6952 JP) and Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Financials, while shorts were covered on Consumer Staples.In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were seen on Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and Samsung SDI (006400 KS) while shorts were covered on Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS), S Oil Corp (010950 KS) and HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Asustek Computer (2357 TT), Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT), Acer Inc (2353 TT) and Largan Precision (3008 TT) while shorts were covered on Unimicron Technology (3037 TT), Century Iron &amp; Steel Indus (9958 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and Formosa Petrochemical (6505 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Haier, Sunny Optical, Itochu, Mercari, Toshiba, HMM, Asustek, Acer

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><em>*Yongcheng Coal Default: </em></strong>According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and</p><p><strong><em>*Watch Your Banks: </em></strong>The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.</p>

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

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Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)

China Resources Mixc Lifestyle IPO: Valuation Insights

At the mid-point of the IPO price range, CR Mixc will raise net proceeds of $1.4 billion. We label this insight bearish as we would participate at...

Arun George

Ping An Insurance – Avoiding The Hard Questions

PING AN INSURANCE: Everyone Understands That Ping An Insurance Is Struggling In Every Business Line. Management Refuses To Discuss How They Are...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group – Let’s Get Real

AIA GROUP: AIA Must Not Believe Its Investor Base Cares About Anything But China Growth. It Expects Everyone To Ignore Hong Kong, Negative Tax...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Haier, Sunny Optical, Itochu, Mercari, Toshiba, HMM, Asustek, Acer

This Insight looks at short interest movements in stocks across Asian markets and highlights stocks that have seen large increase/ decrease in...

Brian Freitas

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

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