Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

New China Life Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiss-re-ag-1f83dcbc-730e-46fa-82f2-bfe7e8e361a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27914:1" rel="noopener">Swiss Re AG (SREN SW)</a> plans to raise around US$290m via selling all of its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-china-life-insurance-c-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:377:1" rel="noopener">New China Life Insurance (1336 HK)</a>. This is not the first selldown by the company. It last sold a similar sized stake in Oct 2017, which we covered in our note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-china-life-placement-picked-the-bottom-for-buying-hopefully-not-the-top-for-selling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New China Life Placement - Picked the Bottom for Buying, Hopefully Not the Top for Selling</a>.That deal ended up doing well.

Swiss Re AG (SREN SW) plans to raise around US$290m via selling all of its remaining stake in New China Life Insurance (1336 HK). This is not the first selldown by the company. It last sold a similar sized stake in Oct 2017, which we covered in our note, New China Life Placement - Picked the Bottom for Buying, Hopefully Not the Top for Selling.That deal ended up doing well.

New China Life Placement - Clean-Up Helps, past Deal Did Well

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

ICBC <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">(1398 HK</a> | <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:494:1" rel="noopener">601398 CH)</a> 
The market rout since April has taken ICBC-H <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">(1398 HK)</a> back to HKD5.00/share. The stock is now trading at historically low forward P/B and P/E multiples and offers a hefty yield of 7%. Investors are pricing the shares exactly as if the bank is a dividend stock with no perpetual growth.
A perpetual bond may just be what the bank is. The market-implied NPL ratio of over 8% is not out of the realm of possibility. We forecast cumulative loan write-offs of CNY1 trillion (USD155 billion) over the next five years. It doesn't take another global crisis for us to get there. Asset quality concerns will continue to weigh heavily on the stock and the lack of catalysts will limit re-rating potential, in our view.
A multi-year ROE compression story is taking shape. Even the most bullish forecasts see the bank's ROE trending lower as impairment charges eat into interest and fee income. A strong provision level helps to an extent. But we expect the bank to burn down its reserve cover considerably in 2021E to 2025E just to maintain its dividends. 
Asset quality will likely get worse, but the mortgage book provides a glimmer of hope. ICBC continues to be a major funding source of China's capital-intensive recovery. The bank's infrastructure book has grown by CNY1.6 trillion (USD247 billion) since 2016. Indirect exposures to local government finances have also been on the rise. On a more positive note, the mortgage book has been a star. Even if NPLs tick up moderately as the portfolio seasons, homeowners are paying most of the bank's shareholder dividends.
We are underweight ICBC-H against MSCI China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-china-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22895:1" rel="noopener">(MXCN INDEX)</a> and would look to build a net short position if the stock edges past HKD6.00/share. The bank's dividend capacity puts a floor on the stock, but offers limited room for capital appreciation. The key risks to our call are macro-related. Rising tides lift all boats and any unexpected form of monetary easing by the PBOC will drive the shares higher.
(Attachment: Financial Summary)

ICBC (1398 HK | 601398 CH) 
The market rout since April has taken ICBC-H (1398 HK) back to HKD5.00/share. The stock is now trading at historically low forward P/B and P/E multiples and offers a hefty yield of 7%. Investors are pricing the shares exactly as if the bank is a dividend stock with no perpetual growth.
A perpetual bond may just be what the bank is. The market-implied NPL ratio of over 8% is not out of the realm of possibility. We forecast cumulative loan write-offs of CNY1 trillion (USD155 billion) over the next five years. It doesn't take another global crisis for us to get there. Asset quality concerns will continue to weigh heavily on the stock and the lack of catalysts will limit re-rating potential, in our view.
A multi-year ROE compression story is taking shape. Even the most bullish forecasts see the bank's ROE trending lower as impairment charges eat into interest and fee income. A strong provision level helps to an extent. But we expect the bank to burn down its reserve cover considerably in 2021E to 2025E just to maintain its dividends. 
Asset quality will likely get worse, but the mortgage book provides a glimmer of hope. ICBC continues to be a major funding source of China's capital-intensive recovery. The bank's infrastructure book has grown by CNY1.6 trillion (USD247 billion) since 2016. Indirect exposures to local government finances have also been on the rise. On a more positive note, the mortgage book has been a star. Even if NPLs tick up moderately as the portfolio seasons, homeowners are paying most of the bank's shareholder dividends.
We are underweight ICBC-H against MSCI China (MXCN INDEX) and would look to build a net short position if the stock edges past HKD6.00/share. The bank's dividend capacity puts a floor on the stock, but offers limited room for capital appreciation. The key risks to our call are macro-related. Rising tides lift all boats and any unexpected form of monetary easing by the PBOC will drive the shares higher.
(Attachment: Financial Summary)

ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] released its limited set of 1Q21 results. AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) improved 404 or 62.3% on a linked quarter basis due to a combination of higher new sales volume (ANP up 422 or 32.9%) and an VONB margin expansion of 11.7% to 61.6% - closing in on pre-Covid levels and driven by mainland China, Thailand, and Malaysia; and* China And Hong Kong Risks Still Need To Be Addressed: Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary. In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; and getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong.

*Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] released its limited set of 1Q21 results. AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) improved 404 or 62.3% on a linked quarter basis due to a combination of higher new sales volume (ANP up 422 or 32.9%) and an VONB margin expansion of 11.7% to 61.6% - closing in on pre-Covid levels and driven by mainland China, Thailand, and Malaysia; and* China And Hong Kong Risks Still Need To Be Addressed: Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary. In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; and getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</div><div>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (9626 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Consumer Staples and Materials sectors, and decreased in the Financials sector.</div><div>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keihan-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6120:1" rel="noopener">Keihan Holdings Co., Ltd. (9045 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE Holdings (5411 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daito-trust-construct-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1" rel="noopener">Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ai-inside-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33241:1" rel="noopener">AI Inside (4488 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology sector.</div><div>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a>. The largest percentage increase in shorts was seen on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kcc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11109:1" rel="noopener">Kcc Corp (002380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daelim-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18095:1" rel="noopener">DL Co Ltd (000210 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongkuk-steel-mill-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7293:1" rel="noopener">Dongkuk Steel Mill (001230 KS)</a>.</div><div>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:962:1" rel="noopener">China Steel (2002 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17677:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Financial Holding Co (2882 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mega-financial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3463:1" rel="noopener">Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4591:1" rel="noopener">China Airlines (2610 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silergy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13998:1" rel="noopener">Silergy Corp (6415 TT)</a>.</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Sunny Optical (2382 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Bilibili Inc (9626 HK) and China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), HSBC Holdings (5 HK) and Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Consumer Staples and Materials sectors, and decreased in the Financials sector.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Sharp Corp (6753 JP), CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP), Keihan Holdings Co., Ltd. (9045 JP) and JFE Holdings (5411 JP) while shorts decreased on Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), BASE Inc (4477 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP) and AI Inside (4488 JP). Shorts increased in the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology sector.In Korea, shorts increased on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), LG Display (034220 KS) and Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS). The largest percentage increase in shorts was seen on Kcc Corp (002380 KS), Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS), DL Co Ltd (000210 KS) and Dongkuk Steel Mill (001230 KS).In Taiwan, shorts increased on China Steel (2002 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), AU Optronics (2409 TT) and United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) while shorts covered on Cathay Financial Holding Co (2882 TT), Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT), China Airlines (2610 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) and Silergy Corp (6415 TT).

Asia Shorts: Sunny Optic, CMB, Ping An, 7&I, Keihan, Celltrion, Shinpoong, KCC, China Steel, Novatek

*Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] will report 1Q21 operating metrics on May 14, 2021. We anticipate a low base YOY rebound in VONB to USD 950 mn (15%). Mainland China and Malaysia should be this quarter’s standouts, whilst Hong Kong likely exhibits yet another decline in 1Q21 due to the border closure with mainland China;  and * China And Hong Kong Risks Still Need To Be Addressed: Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary. In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; and getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong.

*Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] will report 1Q21 operating metrics on May 14, 2021. We anticipate a low base YOY rebound in VONB to USD 950 mn (15%). Mainland China and Malaysia should be this quarter’s standouts, whilst Hong Kong likely exhibits yet another decline in 1Q21 due to the border closure with mainland China;  and * China And Hong Kong Risks Still Need To Be Addressed: Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary. In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; and getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong. 

AIA Group – 1Q21 Preview; Better But Off Low Base

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

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Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)

New China Life Placement - Clean-Up Helps, past Deal Did Well

Swiss Re AG plans to raise around US$290m via selling all of its remaining stake in New China Life Insurance (1336 HK). This is not the first...

Sumeet Singh

ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story

ICBC-H offers a hefty yield of 7% and is trading precisely as a zero-growth dividend-paying stock. But we are not buyers just yet and there is a...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

AIA Group – Risks Remain High

AIA GROUP: AIA 1Q21 results with VONB improving 62.3% QOQ due to higher sales volume and VONB margin expansion driven by China, Thailand, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia Shorts: Sunny Optic, CMB, Ping An, 7&I, Keihan, Celltrion, Shinpoong, KCC, China Steel, Novatek

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

AIA Group – 1Q21 Preview; Better But Off Low Base

AIA GROUP: AIA reports 1Q21 metrics on May 14. We expect a low base YOY rebound in VONB of 15%. With weaker organic growth, AIA went on a deal...

Thomas J. Monaco

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