Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Equity Capital Markets

JD Health International  / Equity Capital Markets

This Insight discusses the assumptions required to justify JD Health's reportedly target valuation of US$20 billion. Our analysis indicates that the online pharmacy business could be worth US$10 billion assuming some degree of margin improvement. Further, the online healthcare services business will have to penetrate roughly 2% of healthcare services spending to justify the balance (US$10 billion) valuation, which we think is achievable.

This Insight discusses the assumptions required to justify JD Health's reportedly target valuation of US$20 billion. Our analysis indicates that the online pharmacy business could be worth US$10 billion assuming some degree of margin improvement. Further, the online healthcare services business will have to penetrate roughly 2% of healthcare services spending to justify the balance (US$10 billion) valuation, which we think is achievable.  

JD Health: Framing the Valuation Discussion

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1. Industry viewpoints:
<ul>
<li>As the population ages, it is expected that the domestic dental prosthesis market has a great potential for development.</li>
<li>In the future, the market of China medical beauty has a broad space for growth.</li>
<li>POCT (point-of-care testing) has gained popularity in recent years and has become one of the fastest growing IVD tracks.</li>
</ul>
2. Company news:
News from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>, Aravive and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> about the progress of new drugs, vaccine for COVID-19, new license agreement and the establishment of the Internet Eye Center.
3. Market review:
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.23%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.59% over the same period of time. 
4. Risk Disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:

As the population ages, it is expected that the domestic dental prosthesis market has a great potential for development.
In the future, the market of China medical beauty has a broad space for growth.
POCT (point-of-care testing) has gained popularity in recent years and has become one of the fastest growing IVD tracks.

2. Company news:
News from BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK), Aravive and Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) about the progress of new drugs, vaccine for COVID-19, new license agreement and the establishment of the Internet Eye Center.
3. Market review:
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.23%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.59% over the same period of time. 
4. Risk Disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (JDH HK)</a> is the largest online healthcare platform and the largest online retail pharmacy by revenue in China in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. JD Health has filed its PHIP and kicked off pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise around $3 billion.  <div class="content-highlight">In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-health-ipo-initiation-e-ppointments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45106" rel="noopener">JD Health IPO Initiation: E-Ppointments</a>, we stated that JD Health’s fundamentals suggest that it is an attractive play on China’s online healthcare platform industry. JD Health will tend to be compared to its listed peers – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a>/PAHTG, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>. The new data points disclosed in the PHIP along with our peer analysis reinforce our view that JD Health has attractive fundamentals. </div>

JD Health (JDH HK) is the largest online healthcare platform and the largest online retail pharmacy by revenue in China in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. JD Health has filed its PHIP and kicked off pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise around $3 billion.  In JD Health IPO Initiation: E-Ppointments, we stated that JD Health’s fundamentals suggest that it is an attractive play on China’s online healthcare platform industry. JD Health will tend to be compared to its listed peers – Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)/PAHTG, Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) and 111 Inc (YI US). The new data points disclosed in the PHIP along with our peer analysis reinforce our view that JD Health has attractive fundamentals. 

JD Health IPO: PHIP New Data Points and Peer Comparison

The development of a leading online healthcare services business not only is a critical component of JD Health’s strategy, but also a key support to the rumored listing valuation of US$20 billion. In contrast with the retail pharmacy business, the company's online healthcare services segment is in its infancy. In fact, the industry has yet to generate profits. This Insight takes a ground-level view of the online healthcare services sector using academic research and competitors' data to provide tools to evaluate JD Health's and its peers' execution.

The development of a leading online healthcare services business not only is a critical component of JD Health’s strategy, but also a key support to the rumored listing valuation of US$20 billion. In contrast with the retail pharmacy business, the company's online healthcare services segment is in its infancy. In fact, the industry has yet to generate profits. This Insight takes a ground-level view of the online healthcare services sector using academic research and competitors' data to provide tools to evaluate JD Health's and its peers' execution.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the Hang Seng TECH Index, there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ming-yuan-cloud-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29268:1" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archosaur-games" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28948:1" rel="noopener">Archosaur Games (9990 HK)</a>, while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengten-networks-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">HengTen Ltd (136 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netdragon-websoft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3703:1" rel="noopener">Netdragon Websoft (777 HK)</a>. One way turnover is 7.97% due to the inclusions/ exclusions, capping, and free float changes.Both inclusions have 0.67 days of ADV to buy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengten-networks-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">HengTen Ltd (136 HK)</a> has 0.6 days of ADV to sell, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netdragon-websoft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3703:1" rel="noopener">Netdragon Websoft (777 HK)</a> has 1 day of ADV to sell.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the Hang Seng TECH Index, there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.The inclusions are Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) and Archosaur Games (9990 HK), while the deletions are HengTen Ltd (136 HK) and Netdragon Websoft (777 HK). One way turnover is 7.97% due to the inclusions/ exclusions, capping, and free float changes.Both inclusions have 0.67 days of ADV to buy, HengTen Ltd (136 HK) has 0.6 days of ADV to sell, while Netdragon Websoft (777 HK) has 1 day of ADV to sell.

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: Two Changes as Assets Continue to Grow

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited provides health care software solutions. The Company offers mobile platform for online consultation, hospital referral and appointment, health management, and wellness interaction services, as well as connects consumers and patients with health care resources. Ping An Healthcare and Technology serves customers in China.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

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Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

JD Health: Framing the Valuation Discussion

This Insight discusses the assumptions required to justify JD Health's reportedly target valuation of US$20 billion with a buildup by each business...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.13)

The article summarized the major industry viewpoints, company news and capital market review for China healthcare industry in the week of November...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

JD Health IPO: PHIP New Data Points and Peer Comparison

JD Health has kicked off pre-marketing for an HK IPO to raise around $3 billion. The new PHIP data points along with our peer analysis reinforce...

Arun George

JD Health: Examining the Infant

This Insight offers a ground-level view of the nascent online healthcare services sector using academic research and other sources to evaluate the...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: Two Changes as Assets Continue to Grow

The first review of the Hang Seng TECH index has 2 inclusions and 2 deletions. Assets benchmarked to the index are north of US$1.1bn and will...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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