Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The top 5 highest ranked ASX 200 Potential ADDs have 10+ days to buy and a couple of these names could become intra-review additions. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> is an ASX 50 ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> is an ASX 50 DEL as it stands. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.
The top 5 highest ranked ASX 200 Potential ADDs have 10+ days to buy and a couple of these names could become intra-review additions. 

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is an ASX 50 ADD and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) is an ASX 50 DEL as it stands. 


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Top Ranked ASX200 ADDs Look Interesting

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>After dropping all the way back down to $75 on September 26th, OPEC’s ~1M/barrel day production cut announcement last week was followed up by another bullish crude oil inventory draw last week, which sent WTI crude oil rocketing higher 16%. </li><li>This was the largest weekly gain since Russia invaded Ukraine and caught the market by surprise. </li><li>The production cut also sent a strong signal to President Biden after OPEC agreed to a production increase in early August after his Saudi Arabia visit (last week’s cut was more than 9X the production increase previously agreed to!). </li></ul>

After dropping all the way back down to $75 on September 26th, OPEC’s ~1M/barrel day production cut announcement last week was followed up by another bullish crude oil inventory draw last week, which sent WTI crude oil rocketing higher 16%. This was the largest weekly gain since Russia invaded Ukraine and caught the market by surprise. The production cut also sent a strong signal to President Biden after OPEC agreed to a production increase in early August after his Saudi Arabia visit (last week’s cut was more than 9X the production increase previously agreed to!). 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.</li>
<li>There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.</li>
</ul>


Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.
Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.
There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

<ul>
<li>At the December rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. Announcement is on 2 December with implementation on 16 December.</li>
<li>If added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ioneer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10264:1" rel="noopener">ioneer Ltd (INR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Shorts have dropped on nearly all potential adds and deletes over the last couple of months. With shorts at low levels, short covering will have limited impact at the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


At the December rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). Announcement is on 2 December with implementation on 16 December.
If added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on Monadelphous (MND AU) and ioneer Ltd (INR AU).
Shorts have dropped on nearly all potential adds and deletes over the last couple of months. With shorts at low levels, short covering will have limited impact at the rebalance.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The only way that noisy shareholders in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> can be eliminated, allowing management and employees to focus on "making Toshiba stronger" is to arrange a privatisation. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected. There are hints now that A$30 may be the price.   </li>
<li>After 23 months of negotiations with various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> is now without an Offer.</li>
</ul>


The only way that noisy shareholders in Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) can be eliminated, allowing management and employees to focus on "making Toshiba stronger" is to arrange a privatisation. 

BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) approached OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected. There are hints now that A$30 may be the price.   
After 23 months of negotiations with various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) is now without an Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

Australia

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

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Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)

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There could be two changes each for the ASX50 and ASX200 indices in December. There is a large impact expected on a couple of the adds while short...

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Top Ranked ASX200 ADDs Look Interesting

Tassal and Nearmap could get deleted from the ASX 200 index before the December 2022 Rebalance. Monadelphous and PolyNovo are leading the race to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 10/10

After dropping all the way back down to $75 on September 26th, OPEC’s ~1M/barrel day production cut announcement last week was followed up by...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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There could be two changes each for the ASX50 and ASX200 indices in December. There is a large impact expected on a couple of the adds while short...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Top Ranked ASX200 ADDs Look Interesting

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds