Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> closed down last week (CC=-1), this week is rising again, we analyze the new, reset resistance levels to see how far it can go.</li>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-sp-asx200-index-will-it-break-out-of-its-range" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous, recent insight</a> discussed the fact that the index has been locked in a range for 2 years, an uptrend may be unfolding but it must breach 7600.</li>
<li>The current trend pattern is bearish, the index won't rise more than 2-3 weeks, and it would probably go not very far: 7300-7400 should be the limit</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) closed down last week (CC=-1), this week is rising again, we analyze the new, reset resistance levels to see how far it can go.
Our previous, recent insight discussed the fact that the index has been locked in a range for 2 years, an uptrend may be unfolding but it must breach 7600.
The current trend pattern is bearish, the index won't rise more than 2-3 weeks, and it would probably go not very far: 7300-7400 should be the limit


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

<ul>
<li>There is one add and two deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the September rebalance. Plus there are free float and capping changes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 11.1% and will result in a one-way trade of US$58m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5 days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-huayou-cobalt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25048:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799 CH)</a> are surprises.</li>
</ul>


There is one add and two deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the September rebalance. Plus there are free float and capping changes.
One way turnover is estimated at 11.1% and will result in a one-way trade of US$58m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5 days of ADV to trade.
The inclusion of Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and deletion of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799 CH) are surprises.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> at A$3.00 per share, a 20.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$2.50.</li>
<li>The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. The offer price is final, barring a superior proposal.</li>
<li>Liontown has granted Albemarle a limited period of exclusive due diligence. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal at A$3.00 per share. The retail vote could be a risk.</li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) has received a revised non-binding privatisation proposal from Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at A$3.00 per share, a 20.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$2.50.
The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. The offer price is final, barring a superior proposal.
Liontown has granted Albemarle a limited period of exclusive due diligence. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal at A$3.00 per share. The retail vote could be a risk.


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Albemarle’s Final A$3.00 Offer

<ul>
<li>The review period for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index ended 31 August. The changes will be announced on 8 September and implemented at the close on 15 September.</li>
<li>Coming in around the 85% cutoff, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rising-nonferrous-metals-share-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14860:1" rel="noopener">Rising Nonferrous Metals Share (600259 CH)</a> is a potential inclusion. There are two stocks that are very close to the 98% deletion threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> is a deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance and there could be more to sell if deleted from this index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index ended 31 August. The changes will be announced on 8 September and implemented at the close on 15 September.
Coming in around the 85% cutoff, Rising Nonferrous Metals Share (600259 CH) is a potential inclusion. There are two stocks that are very close to the 98% deletion threshold.

Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) is a deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the September rebalance and there could be more to sell if deleted from this index.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete

Australia

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

Price Gauge
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Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...

Nico Rosti

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

One add, two deletes, float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover estimated at 11.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$58m. There...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Albemarle’s Final A$3.00 Offer

The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. At the...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete

With the review period complete, there is 1 potential add and 2 potential deletes. LKE is a potential delete and will also be deleted from the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Index Looking Bearish: Resistance Levels Reset

​The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...

Nico Rosti

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

One add, two deletes, float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover estimated at 11.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$58m. There...

Brian Freitas

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Albemarle’s Final A$3.00 Offer

The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. At the...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete

With the review period complete, there is 1 potential add and 2 potential deletes. LKE is a potential delete and will also be deleted from the...

Brian Freitas

The current MRM reading for the current SP/ASX 200 trend pattern is bearish, suggesting a 2-3 weeks rally maximum, with limited gains (2% to 3%...

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes & Big Turnover

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete