IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Lithium Power International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a> IE considers Codelco’s A$0.57 offer fair and reasonable as it is above the midpoint of its A$0.30-0.68 per share valuation range. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as LPI’s assets are outside Australia in Chile.</li>
<li>Irrevocables represent 32.05% of outstanding shares. At the last close and for the 16 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.6%/26.3%.</li>
</ul>


The Lithium Power International (LPI AU) IE considers Codelco’s A$0.57 offer fair and reasonable as it is above the midpoint of its A$0.30-0.68 per share valuation range. 
The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as LPI’s assets are outside Australia in Chile.
Irrevocables represent 32.05% of outstanding shares. At the last close and for the 16 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.6%/26.3%.


Lithium Power (LPI AU): Scheme Vote on 23 January

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> has entered a new transaction implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The emergence of Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. </li>
<li>The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.</li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a new transaction implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The emergence of Hancock and Mineral Resources (MIN AU) as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. 
The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM/Hancock Team up for a New Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. </li>
<li>It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"</li>
<li>But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-update-much-more-than-meets-the-eye" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. 
It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"
But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details here.


Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wisetech Global, Mineral Resource, Liontown, ANZ, CSL, Macquarie, Car.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wisetech Global, Mineral Resource, Liontown, ANZ, CSL, Macquarie, Car.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 8th): Wisetech Global, Mineral Resource, Liontown, ANZ, CSL

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.</li>
<li>Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

Australia

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

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Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)

Lithium Power (LPI AU): Scheme Vote on 23 January

This is a done deal. Irrevocables represent 32.05% of outstanding shares. At the last close and for the 16 February payment, the gross/annualised...

Arun George

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM/Hancock Team up for a New Offer

The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers....

Arun George

Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Allkem/Livent shareholder meetings are tomorrow. Sentiment is mixed but this likely gets done. And if not, Allkem is likely the one to own. Once...

Travis Lundy

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 8th): Wisetech Global, Mineral Resource, Liontown, ANZ, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wisetech Global, Mineral Resource, Liontown, ANZ,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

There are 3 deletions for the index in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a one-way trade of A$99m. Shorts will look to cover...

Brian Freitas

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