HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. </li>
<li>We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.</li>
<li>We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.</li>
</ul>


If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable. 
We haven't seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.
We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.


Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) - What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a> reported beat-and-raise Q3 results. Revenue declined 2% operationally to $22.6 billion, beating consensus by $1.5 billion. Adjusted EPS of $1.78 was ahead of consensus of $1.40.</li>
<li>Pfizer raised its 2022 financial guidance, on an operational basis, for revenue and adjusted EPS by approximately $1.7 billion and $0.19, respectively.</li>
<li>The company aims to launch 19 new products or indications, of which more than two thirds have the potential to be blockbusters, in the market over the next 18 months.</li>
</ul>



Pfizer Inc (PFE US) reported beat-and-raise Q3 results. Revenue declined 2% operationally to $22.6 billion, beating consensus by $1.5 billion. Adjusted EPS of $1.78 was ahead of consensus of $1.40.
Pfizer raised its 2022 financial guidance, on an operational basis, for revenue and adjusted EPS by approximately $1.7 billion and $0.19, respectively.
The company aims to launch 19 new products or indications, of which more than two thirds have the potential to be blockbusters, in the market over the next 18 months.


Pfizer Inc (PFE US): Stellar Q3 Performance; Despite Unfavorable Fx Impact, Raises 2022 Guidance

Shinpoong Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a> is re-purposing its existing anti-malarial drug Pyramax as an oral treatment for the COVID-19. The company is conducting phase 3 study in six countries, including Korea.</li>
<li>South Korean oral COVID-19 treatment market is currently dominated by Paxlovid. Other domestic companies are also in race to develop homegrown oral COVID-19 drugs, thereby creating a crowded market.</li>
<li>With declining cases and hospitalizations, Pyramax has muted growth prospect as a treatment for COVID-19. Shinpoong is reporting operating loss due to accelerated R&amp;D expenditures.  </li>
</ul>



Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS) is re-purposing its existing anti-malarial drug Pyramax as an oral treatment for the COVID-19. The company is conducting phase 3 study in six countries, including Korea.
South Korean oral COVID-19 treatment market is currently dominated by Paxlovid. Other domestic companies are also in race to develop homegrown oral COVID-19 drugs, thereby creating a crowded market.
With declining cases and hospitalizations, Pyramax has muted growth prospect as a treatment for COVID-19. Shinpoong is reporting operating loss due to accelerated R&amp;D expenditures.  


Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS): Late Entry in COVID Drug Market; Legal Overhang Still Persists

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sumitomo has offered $22.75/share in cash, 27% premium, for the 48% stake it doesn't hold in Myovant, whose Board has rejected the offer and is open to negotiate.</li>
<li>The sell-side forecasts peak sales of over $2 billion for Orgovyx and Myfembree. Myovant also has a co-marketing deal with Pfizer could be worth $3.8 billion in milestones.</li>
<li>My TP is $22.84 (in line with consensus and the offer price). The market certainly believes that Sumitomo could be preparing a sweetened offer. Will Orgovyx become a blockbuster?</li>
</ul>


Sumitomo has offered $22.75/share in cash, 27% premium, for the 48% stake it doesn't hold in Myovant, whose Board has rejected the offer and is open to negotiate.
The sell-side forecasts peak sales of over $2 billion for Orgovyx and Myfembree. Myovant also has a co-marketing deal with Pfizer could be worth $3.8 billion in milestones.
My TP is $22.84 (in line with consensus and the offer price). The market certainly believes that Sumitomo could be preparing a sweetened offer. Will Orgovyx become a blockbuster?


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/myovant-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36419:1" rel="noopener">Myovant Sciences (MYOV US)</a> rejected $2.5 billion takeover offer from its largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a>, as the bid significantly undervalues the company.</li>
<li>Amid its tight cash situation, upcoming patent cliff, and ongoing late-stage clinical trials, Sumitomo is not expected to revise its offer upward.</li>
<li>New acquisition offer from marketing partner Pfizer is the most likely scenario. Even if the company does not receive any takeover offer, Myovant is capable of running its operating activities.</li>
</ul>



Myovant Sciences (MYOV US) rejected $2.5 billion takeover offer from its largest shareholder, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP), as the bid significantly undervalues the company.
Amid its tight cash situation, upcoming patent cliff, and ongoing late-stage clinical trials, Sumitomo is not expected to revise its offer upward.
New acquisition offer from marketing partner Pfizer is the most likely scenario. Even if the company does not receive any takeover offer, Myovant is capable of running its operating activities.


Myovant Sciences (MYOV US): Rejects Sumitomo’s $2.5B Bid; Remains Open for Better Offer

United States

Pfizer Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company offers medicines, vaccines, medical devices, and consumer healthcare products for oncology, inflammation, cardiovascular, and other therapeutic areas. Pfizer serves customers worldwide.

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Pfizer (PFE UN)

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Myovant has turned down acquisition offer from its largest shareholder, leading to share price volatility. A revised offer or a fresh offer from...

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