IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>The highest spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akm-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7206:1" rel="noopener">AKM Industrial (1639 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excelpoint-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1774:1" rel="noopener">Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
The highest spreads are Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU).
Lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), AKM Industrial (1639 HK), Irongate Group (IAP AU), Giordano International (709 HK), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP).


Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jun) - Ramsay Health, Link Admin, Link Net, True/DTAC, ResApp, Giordano

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/dye-and-durham-re-thinks-link-bid-revised-offer-expected-20220626-p5awns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that after weeks of talk, Dye &amp; Durham (DND) is expected to lob a revised lower proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> as soon as this week.</li>
<li>Presumably, DND’s justification for a lower offer is to facilitate ACCC approval timelines. It remains to be seen if this is enough for the Board to recommend a lower offer. </li>
<li>Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the current peer multiples and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> share price points to a Link valuation range of A$3.52-4.40 per share. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that after weeks of talk, Dye &amp; Durham (DND) is expected to lob a revised lower proposal for Link Administration (LNK AU) as soon as this week.
Presumably, DND’s justification for a lower offer is to facilitate ACCC approval timelines. It remains to be seen if this is enough for the Board to recommend a lower offer. 
Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the current peer multiples and PEXA Group (PXA AU) share price points to a Link valuation range of A$3.52-4.40 per share. 


Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in July following the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. </li>
<li>There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There could be one change to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in July following the privatisation of Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU). 
Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. 
There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

<ul>
<li>The ACCC’s Statement of Issues noted “significant preliminary competition concerns” in relation to Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>. The findings will be announced on 8 September.</li>
<li>There is no easy fix. We think that satisfying the ACCC requires a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> stake disposal which could trigger a material adverse clause.</li>
<li>Link aims to proceed with the 13 July scheme meeting but this is a broken deal. While our SoTP suggests upside, there are no short-term positive catalysts.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC’s Statement of Issues noted “significant preliminary competition concerns” in relation to Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s acquisition of Link Administration (LNK AU). The findings will be announced on 8 September.
There is no easy fix. We think that satisfying the ACCC requires a PEXA Group (PXA AU) stake disposal which could trigger a material adverse clause.
Link aims to proceed with the 13 July scheme meeting but this is a broken deal. While our SoTP suggests upside, there are no short-term positive catalysts.


ACCC’s Concerns Likely to End in a Link-DND Deal Bust

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This transaction is looking increasingly toast. The ACCC has outlined significant preliminary competition concerns with Dye &amp; Durham’s (D&amp;D) proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Separately, Link's subsidiary, Link Fund Solutions Limited, has been notified that an application for a "Group Litigation Order" has been filed in the English High Court. </li>
<li>Link has to exit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA</a> for this transaction to proceed. But how badly do D&amp;D want PEXA? Will they walk? Time to look at Link fundamentally, separate from D&amp;D's Offer.</li>
</ul>


This transaction is looking increasingly toast. The ACCC has outlined significant preliminary competition concerns with Dye &amp; Durham’s (D&amp;D) proposed acquisition of Link Administration (LNK AU).
Separately, Link's subsidiary, Link Fund Solutions Limited, has been notified that an application for a "Group Litigation Order" has been filed in the English High Court. 
Link has to exit PEXA for this transaction to proceed. But how badly do D&amp;D want PEXA? Will they walk? Time to look at Link fundamentally, separate from D&amp;D's Offer.


Link Admin: Dye & Durham’s Deal All But Dead

Australia

PEXA Group Limited operates the property exchange network. The Company provides a robust, resilient, and cloud-based platform that connects financial institutions, practitioner firms, the reserve bank of Australia, land titles, and state revenue offices to enable the digital lodgment and settlement of property transactions collaborate to prepare for settlements.

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PEXA Group (PXA AU)

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jun) - Ramsay Health, Link Admin, Link Net, True/DTAC, ResApp, Giordano

This week, the highest gross spreads are Sezzle (74.8%), Link Admin (49.1%), VNET (27.8%), Alliance Aviation (26.0%), Ramsay (22.4%), ResApp...

Arun George

Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

Renewed bid spec is an unexpected positive catalyst. Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the market sell-off points to a Link valuation range of...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

There are a lot of potential changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices over the next few months. Passive trading impact is high on a lot of stocks...

Brian Freitas

ACCC’s Concerns Likely to End in a Link-DND Deal Bust

The deal is all but bust due to the ACCC's concerns. Our SoTP is A$3.74 which is a 12% upside to the last close. However, we would stay away as...

Arun George

Link Admin: Dye & Durham’s Deal All But Dead

Link is a buy here - $3.36 as I type. The deal is not officially dead, so there are possibly event holders involved, who could still kick out.

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jun) - Ramsay Health, Link Admin, Link Net, True/DTAC, ResApp, Giordano

This week, the highest gross spreads are Sezzle (74.8%), Link Admin (49.1%), VNET (27.8%), Alliance Aviation (26.0%), Ramsay (22.4%), ResApp...

Arun George

Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

Renewed bid spec is an unexpected positive catalyst. Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the market sell-off points to a Link valuation range of...

Arun George

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

There are a lot of potential changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices over the next few months. Passive trading impact is high on a lot of stocks...

Brian Freitas

ACCC’s Concerns Likely to End in a Link-DND Deal Bust

The deal is all but bust due to the ACCC's concerns. Our SoTP is A$3.74 which is a 12% upside to the last close. However, we would stay away as...

Arun George

Link Admin: Dye & Durham’s Deal All But Dead

Link is a buy here - $3.36 as I type. The deal is not officially dead, so there are possibly event holders involved, who could still kick out.

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes