IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> at A$4.81 per share has received approvals from the ACCC and the Central Bank of Ireland.</li>
<li>Key conditions precedent remaining are FIRB, UK FCA and Luxembourg approvals. The second court hearing date has been adjourned to 15 September.</li>
<li>The transaction is in the home stretch and will likely complete. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a 27 September payment is 4.8% and 151%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s proposed acquisition of Link Administration (LNK AU) at A$4.81 per share has received approvals from the ACCC and the Central Bank of Ireland.
Key conditions precedent remaining are FIRB, UK FCA and Luxembourg approvals. The second court hearing date has been adjourned to 15 September.
The transaction is in the home stretch and will likely complete. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a 27 September payment is 4.8% and 151%, respectively.


Link’s Scheme in the Home Stretch by Securing ACCC and CBI Approval

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a></strong> has announced the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission will not oppose Dye &amp; Durham's proposed acquisition.</li>
<li>The next step is the rescheduled second court hearing on the 15 September.</li>
<li>The key outstanding condition concerns the "Woodford Matters", and whether D&amp;D potentially waives this condition, or digs in its heels.  </li>
</ul>



Link Administration (LNK AU) has announced the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission will not oppose Dye &amp; Durham's proposed acquisition.
The next step is the rescheduled second court hearing on the 15 September.
The key outstanding condition concerns the "Woodford Matters", and whether D&amp;D potentially waives this condition, or digs in its heels.  


Link Admin Gets ACCC Nod. Woodford Condition Outstanding

<ul>
<li>Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.</li>
<li>Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.</li>
<li>The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).</li>
</ul>


Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, Link Administration (LNK AU) shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.
Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.
The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).


Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

<ul>
<li>The ACCC is seeking views on whether Dye &amp; Durham’s proposed sale of GlobalX and the Australian operations of SAI Global, is sufficient to approve <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a></strong>'s takeover.</li>
<li>Separately, the postponed Scheme meeting will be held on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02549152-2A1388559?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">22 August</a>.  The Independent Expert continues to conclude that the Revised Scheme is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The proposed date for the announcement of ACCC’s findings is the 8th September, one day prior to the Second Court Date.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC is seeking views on whether Dye &amp; Durham’s proposed sale of GlobalX and the Australian operations of SAI Global, is sufficient to approve Link Administration (LNK AU)'s takeover.
Separately, the postponed Scheme meeting will be held on the 22 August.  The Independent Expert continues to conclude that the Revised Scheme is fair and reasonable.
The proposed date for the announcement of ACCC’s findings is the 8th September, one day prior to the Second Court Date.


Link Admin: Dye & Durham Offers To Sell Aussie Ops To Appease ACCC

Australia

PEXA Group Limited operates the property exchange network. The Company provides a robust, resilient, and cloud-based platform that connects financial institutions, practitioner firms, the reserve bank of Australia, land titles, and state revenue offices to enable the digital lodgment and settlement of property transactions collaborate to prepare for settlements.

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PEXA Group (PXA AU)

Link’s Scheme in the Home Stretch by Securing ACCC and CBI Approval

The transaction is in the home stretch and will likely be completed. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a 27 September payment...

Arun George

Link Admin Gets ACCC Nod. Woodford Condition Outstanding

I don't see D&D scuppering this deal should a determination from the Financial Ombudsman Service be lodged in the next week. If you are in, stay...

David Blennerhassett

Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

The scheme is approved, but the deal break risks from conditions precedent remain. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%)...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Link Admin: Dye & Durham Offers To Sell Aussie Ops To Appease ACCC

Assuming late September payment, this is trading at gross/annualised spread of 7.1%/61%. If you are in, stay in. Or get involved around these levels.

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Link’s Scheme in the Home Stretch by Securing ACCC and CBI Approval

The transaction is in the home stretch and will likely be completed. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a 27 September payment...

Arun George

Link Admin Gets ACCC Nod. Woodford Condition Outstanding

I don't see D&D scuppering this deal should a determination from the Financial Ombudsman Service be lodged in the next week. If you are in, stay...

David Blennerhassett

Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

The scheme is approved, but the deal break risks from conditions precedent remain. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%)...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Link Admin: Dye & Durham Offers To Sell Aussie Ops To Appease ACCC

Assuming late September payment, this is trading at gross/annualised spread of 7.1%/61%. If you are in, stay in. Or get involved around these levels.

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears