Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. </li>
<li>There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. 
There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. 
These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.


S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P BSE family of indices represents the performance of stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) across various sizes, themes, industries, and strategies.</li>
<li>This series will mainly focus on the following indices of the S&amp;P BSE family: S&amp;P BSE 500, S&amp;P BSE 200, S&amp;P BSE 100, and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes during the June 2022 Semi-annual Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P BSE family of indices represents the performance of stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) across various sizes, themes, industries, and strategies.
This series will mainly focus on the following indices of the S&amp;P BSE family: S&amp;P BSE 500, S&amp;P BSE 200, S&amp;P BSE 100, and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX.
In this insight, we take a look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes during the June 2022 Semi-annual Rebalance.


S&P BSE Indices (SENSEX Family): Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 Rebalance (Final)

S&P BSE Indices (SENSEX Family): Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 Rebalance

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

In 2016, a Blackstone fund purchased 60.5% of India-based IT Solutions Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> from Hewlett Packard (which had been looking to sell its stake for quite a while after having purchased it in 2008 when it bought out EDS) at Rs 430/share, then conducted an Open Offer to buy more shares at Rs 457 and change. The deal was to purchase 106.2mm shares from the sellers and another 26% or 54.93mm shares via an Open Offer, and if no shares were acquired in the Open Offer, the Blackstone fund would buy the other 20.9mm shares from the HPE entity selling and HPE would own no more shares. 
When the deal was announced, the price was just below Rs 500/share and during the course of the summer the price rose further so that the Open Offer at the time obtained only 0.001% of shares out. 
The shares rose, doubling reasonably quickly as Blackstone quickly revamped operations. Over the years, Blackstone opportunistically bought and sold small slices of the company in market operations. Late last year, it became clear that Blackstone was weighing the possibility of selling its 56.16% stake in the company as the valuation had run and shares were three times where they were when they bought. There were suggestions it might also be related to the possible departure of Blackstone India senior managing director Amit Jain who was rumored to be quitting to take up the co-head spot at Carlyle India. By January, seller due diligence had been conducted, banks were engaged, and Blackstone was en route to selling its stake (and the Buyer would be liable to launch an Open Offer) in its largest India investment to date to one of the four PE houses which were expected to put in bids - Brookfield, Bain, Carlyle, and Permira. 
Final round bids were due 24 February and by early March, the sale had been called off as the prospective lead buyer Carlyle and Blackstone as seller couldn't come to terms.
Today, we have a deal. But it's not Carlyle.
Blackstone is selling to Blackstone.

In 2016, a Blackstone fund purchased 60.5% of India-based IT Solutions Provider Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) from Hewlett Packard (which had been looking to sell its stake for quite a while after having purchased it in 2008 when it bought out EDS) at Rs 430/share, then conducted an Open Offer to buy more shares at Rs 457 and change. The deal was to purchase 106.2mm shares from the sellers and another 26% or 54.93mm shares via an Open Offer, and if no shares were acquired in the Open Offer, the Blackstone fund would buy the other 20.9mm shares from the HPE entity selling and HPE would own no more shares. 
When the deal was announced, the price was just below Rs 500/share and during the course of the summer the price rose further so that the Open Offer at the time obtained only 0.001% of shares out. 
The shares rose, doubling reasonably quickly as Blackstone quickly revamped operations. Over the years, Blackstone opportunistically bought and sold small slices of the company in market operations. Late last year, it became clear that Blackstone was weighing the possibility of selling its 56.16% stake in the company as the valuation had run and shares were three times where they were when they bought. There were suggestions it might also be related to the possible departure of Blackstone India senior managing director Amit Jain who was rumored to be quitting to take up the co-head spot at Carlyle India. By January, seller due diligence had been conducted, banks were engaged, and Blackstone was en route to selling its stake (and the Buyer would be liable to launch an Open Offer) in its largest India investment to date to one of the four PE houses which were expected to put in bids - Brookfield, Bain, Carlyle, and Permira. 
Final round bids were due 24 February and by early March, the sale had been called off as the prospective lead buyer Carlyle and Blackstone as seller couldn't come to terms.
Today, we have a deal. But it's not Carlyle.
Blackstone is selling to Blackstone. 

Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option

India

Persistent Systems Limited offers outsourced software product development. The Company offer services that include testing, support, and professional services.

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Persistent Systems (PSYS IN)

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

S&P BSE Index changes for June 2022 were announced last week. No changes for SENSEX. 7 Adds/Deletes for BSE 100 including some negative and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P BSE Indices (SENSEX Family): Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 Rebalance (Final)

A look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELETEs for the S&P BSE SENSEX, S&P BSE 100, S&P BSE 200, and S&P BSE 500 Indices for the upcoming...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P BSE Indices (SENSEX Family): Quiddity Leaderboard for June 2022 Rebalance

In this insight, we take a look at the leading candidates who could become Adds/Deletes during the June 2022 Semi-annual Rebalance for S&P BSE 500,...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option

Blackstone is selling its large stake in Mphasis purchased in 2016 to another Blackstone consortium. Price is 3% below here. There may be a 2% div...

Travis Lundy

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