Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</div><div>
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.
</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on 19 June.There are 5 additions in the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-industrial-fund" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17517:1">Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/megaport-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24310:1">Megaport Ltd (MP1 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesoblast-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:769:1">Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperor-energy-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9522:1">Oil Basins Ltd (OBL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>.There are 6 deletions in the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hub24-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12336:1">Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jumbo-interactive-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11495:1">Jumbo Interactive (JIN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> and Pinnacle Investment Management Group.With only 6 days to implementation day there could be big moves ahead. As I type, the adds are down 2.61% on average while the deletes are 6.31% lower on average.

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on 19 June.There are 5 additions in the review: Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP AU), Megaport Ltd (MP1 AU), Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU), Oil Basins Ltd (OBL AU) and Perseus Mining (PRU AU).There are 6 deletions in the review: Estia Health (EHE AU), Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU), Jumbo Interactive (JIN AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Pinnacle Investment Management Group.With only 6 days to implementation day there could be big moves ahead. As I type, the adds are down 2.61% on average while the deletes are 6.31% lower on average.

ASX200 Index Review - A Handful of Changes

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine companies we cover. Our sector fair value factors 4.5% annual revenue growth for the five years to fiscal 2021, including no growth in fiscal 2017. EBITDA growth is a bit higher at 6.4%, due to aggressive cost-outs and industry deflation. Mining and energy remain the foundations, supporting an estimated two thirds of sector earnings. However, we don’t expect investment activity here to bottom until fiscal 2018, and even then, expect only a modest turnaround—well below what the market is pricing in. Instead, we view growth stemming from increased maintenance activity, rising public infrastructure spending unrelated to mining and energy (particularly in Australian road and rail programs in line with government budgets), and other specialised nonmining activities like ALS Limited’s life sciences focus. More than half our forecast earnings boost is totally unrelated to resources; we believe the market overestimates the likely improvement in commodity investment.We derive a sector price/fair value of 1.34, with all companies trading at some premium. Least overvalued is are global explosives provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:895:1">Orica Ltd (ORI AU)</a> at 1.1, and authorised Caterpillar dealer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1">Seven Group Holdings Ltd (SVW AU)</a> at 1.2. Most overvalued are materials tester <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14351" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14351:1">Als Ltd (ALQ AU)</a> at 1.7, and oil and gas engineering services provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/178" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:178:1">Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR AU)</a>  at 1.6.Analyst: Mark Taylor

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine companies we cover. Our sector fair value factors 4.5% annual revenue growth for the five years to fiscal 2021, including no growth in fiscal 2017. EBITDA growth is a bit higher at 6.4%, due to aggressive cost-outs and industry deflation. Mining and energy remain the foundations, supporting an estimated two thirds of sector earnings. However, we don’t expect investment activity here to bottom until fiscal 2018, and even then, expect only a modest turnaround—well below what the market is pricing in. Instead, we view growth stemming from increased maintenance activity, rising public infrastructure spending unrelated to mining and energy (particularly in Australian road and rail programs in line with government budgets), and other specialised nonmining activities like ALS Limited’s life sciences focus. More than half our forecast earnings boost is totally unrelated to resources; we believe the market overestimates the likely improvement in commodity investment.We derive a sector price/fair value of 1.34, with all companies trading at some premium. Least overvalued is are global explosives provider Orica Ltd (ORI AU) at 1.1, and authorised Caterpillar dealer Seven Group Holdings Ltd (SVW AU) at 1.2. Most overvalued are materials tester Als Ltd (ALQ AU) at 1.7, and oil and gas engineering services provider Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR AU)  at 1.6.Analyst: Mark Taylor

Shares Overcook Potential for a Mining Services Turnaround

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


Australia

Perseus Mining Limited is a mining and exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, develops, mines, and produces gold. Perseus Mining conducts its mining operations in Africa and Australia.

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Perseus Mining (PRU AU)

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Review - A Handful of Changes

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) today. The changes are effective at the open of trading on 22 June...

Brian Freitas

Shares Overcook Potential for a Mining Services Turnaround

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine...

Morningstar, Inc.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments. These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last...

Greg Gibbs

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

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