Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives</li>
<li>This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).</li>
</ul>


The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).


"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a> is reportedly drawing takeover interest from Boston Scientific. Shockwave can potentially be one of Boston Scientific's largest ever acquisitions. Probable pricing still offers upside potential.</li>
<li>Shockwave has an addressable market opportunity of $8.5 billion. The company has guided for 2023 revenue of $660–680 million, which represents 35–39% YoY growth.</li>
<li>Addition of Shockwave will bolster Boston Scientific’s cardiovascular portfolio. No official announcement has been made by any of the companies. There is no certainty they will lead to a deal.</li>
</ul>



Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) is reportedly drawing takeover interest from Boston Scientific. Shockwave can potentially be one of Boston Scientific's largest ever acquisitions. Probable pricing still offers upside potential.
Shockwave has an addressable market opportunity of $8.5 billion. The company has guided for 2023 revenue of $660–680 million, which represents 35–39% YoY growth.
Addition of Shockwave will bolster Boston Scientific’s cardiovascular portfolio. No official announcement has been made by any of the companies. There is no certainty they will lead to a deal.


Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Initial Thought on Takeover Talk and Probable Pricing

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

Equity Bottom-Up

Acotec Scientific Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)</a> is an early-mover in peripheral drug coated balloon market in China and holds a dominant 85%+ market share.  </li>
<li>On November 7, Acotec received its first FDA approval for Vericor, a peripheral support catheter designed to enhance access to peripheral vessels.</li>
<li>Acotec started 2022 on a strong note, with revenue increasing 25% y/y in H1 2022 due to increasing adoption of the company’s product in Chinese hospitals.</li>
</ul>



Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) is an early-mover in peripheral drug coated balloon market in China and holds a dominant 85%+ market share.  
On November 7, Acotec received its first FDA approval for Vericor, a peripheral support catheter designed to enhance access to peripheral vessels.
Acotec started 2022 on a strong note, with revenue increasing 25% y/y in H1 2022 due to increasing adoption of the company’s product in Chinese hospitals.


Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK): Base Business, Geography Expansion, New Launch to Drive Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected FY22 results, driven by overseas sales primarily in Europe and China mainly due to market recovery and a weaker yen versus other major currencies.</li>
<li>Asahi has raised FY23 revenue guidance to ¥89.3 billion (+15% y/y) from ¥83.5 billion earlier. However, with weakening yen, another beat is on card.</li>
<li>Although Asahi shares have strong upside potential, continued hospital staff shortages in the U.S. and COVID-related restrictions in China are the main downside risks.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported better-than-expected FY22 results, driven by overseas sales primarily in Europe and China mainly due to market recovery and a weaker yen versus other major currencies.
Asahi has raised FY23 revenue guidance to ¥89.3 billion (+15% y/y) from ¥83.5 billion earlier. However, with weakening yen, another beat is on card.
Although Asahi shares have strong upside potential, continued hospital staff shortages in the U.S. and COVID-related restrictions in China are the main downside risks.


Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Stellar Performance in FY22 Likely to Accelerate in FY23

United States

Penumbra, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices. The Company offers peripheral vascular and neurovascular devices that help patients suffering from stroke and other neurovascular diseases. Penumbra operates in the United States.

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Penumbra (PEN US)

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value Poised to Outperform?; Watching Semiconductors $SOXX $XSD and Banks $KRE $KBE for breakage....

Vermilion Research

Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Initial Thought on Takeover Talk and Probable Pricing

Shockwave Medical is reportedly drawing takeover interest from Boston Scientific. This can potentially be one of Boston Scientific's largest ever...

Tina Banerjee

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

The $SPX reversed topside the 2-month downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023;...

Vermilion Research

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK): Base Business, Geography Expansion, New Launch to Drive Growth

Although recent price rally seems to be overdone, Acotec’s strong base business enhances conviction on its growth potential. Normalization of China...

Tina Banerjee

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Stellar Performance in FY22 Likely to Accelerate in FY23

Driven by global procedure volume recovery and favorable Fx, Asahi is expected to report double-digit revenue growth through FY25 and achieve its...

Tina Banerjee

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