Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Following the <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/THBEV_Potential_Spin_Off_Listing_of_BeerCo.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=647386" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no-objection notice</a> from the SGX concerning its BeerCo IPO, the key focus will be on the appropriate discount <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> will trade to the spun-off entity, and in turn, BeerCo's discount to 53.5%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-beer-alcohol-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23645:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN)</a>. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on ThaiBev <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Following the no-objection notice from the SGX concerning its BeerCo IPO, the key focus will be on the appropriate discount Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) will trade to the spun-off entity, and in turn, BeerCo's discount to 53.5%-held Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN). 




Preceding my comments on ThaiBev and PCCW Ltd (8 HK) are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Double Stub Via ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO

Event-Driven

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<p>Last Week in Event <strong>SPACE</strong> ...</p>
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<li>Reportedly <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faw-car-company-limited-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6497:1" rel="noopener">Faw Car Company Limited A (000800 CH)</a></strong> is allegedly jostling to take a turn at the wheel of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brilliance-china-automotive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:469:1" rel="noopener">Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)</a></strong>.</li>
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<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a></strong> is now an overpriced stock with a supply overhang. The hope of a <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nabtesco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13176:1" rel="noopener">Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP)</a></strong> event is now gone.</li>
<li>Whoever takes control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sawada-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Sawada Holdings (8699 JP</strong>)</a> is going to see the bulk of its major asset liquidated. Buy this stock with both hands at ¥760/share.</li>
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<p>Murakami-affiliated bidder City Index Eleventh has launched an overbid for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-asia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12428:1" rel="noopener">Japan Asia (3751 JP)</a></strong> at ¥1,210/share. The explanation is an eye-opener, and the strategy is very well done.</p>
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<li>Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a></strong>/<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a></strong> to sell more shares of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a></strong>,  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. </li>
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<li>Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.</li>
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<p><em>(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving <strong>S</strong>tubs, <strong>P</strong>airs, <strong>A</strong>rbitrage, share <strong>C</strong>lassifications, and <strong>E</strong>vents - or <strong>SPACE</strong> - in the past week)</em></p>


Last Week in Event SPACE ...



Reportedly Faw Car Company Limited A (000800 CH) is allegedly jostling to take a turn at the wheel of Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK).

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) is now an overpriced stock with a supply overhang. The hope of a Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP) event is now gone.
Whoever takes control of Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) is going to see the bulk of its major asset liquidated. Buy this stock with both hands at ¥760/share.

Murakami-affiliated bidder City Index Eleventh has launched an overbid for Japan Asia (3751 JP) at ¥1,210/share. The explanation is an eye-opener, and the strategy is very well done.

Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) to sell more shares of Tencent Holdings (700 HK),  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. 




Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.


(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Brilliance China, Harmonic Drive, Sawada, Japan Asia, Naspers/Tencent

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> to sell more shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>,  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) to sell more shares of Tencent Holdings (700 HK),  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. 




Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus/Tencent and PCCW Ltd (8 HK), are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Naspers' Unsustainable Look-Through

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> plumbs a new discount to NAV low after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a>'s meteoric post-placement gain; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> discount to NAV retraces, as expected; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> still look cheap versus its sum of parts.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...

Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) plumbs a new discount to NAV low after Evergrande Auto (708 HK)'s meteoric post-placement gain; PCCW Ltd (8 HK) discount to NAV retraces, as expected; and LG Corp (003550 KS) still look cheap versus its sum of parts.




Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Evergrande Auto, PCCW, LG Corp

<p>A number of corporate developments have unfolded at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> over the past year including a partial offer from Richard Li (<em><a href="https://skr.ma/97Cbz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PCCW: Partial Offer To Lift Li Above 30%</a></em>), lifting his stake above the general Offer threshold level of 30%; partially in-specie-ing its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-century-premium-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19652:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Century Premium Developments (432 HK)</a>, such that the property developer is no longer consolidated; selling NOW TV to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a>; and selling non-core related investments in Malaysia.</p>
<p>The Partial Offer led to a significant narrowing in PCCW's discount to NAV, where it has steadfastly remained. </p>
<p>PCCW has marginally underperformed the HSI over the past year - -4% vs -1.5% - but has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a>'s -13.5%. </p>
<p>Despite the gradual cleaning of house, and Li's move to consolidate greater control, PCCW's stub ops - ex-HKT - stubbornly remain in the red (on an EBITDA basis), as they have done so for near-on a decade.</p>
<p>Reports are now emerging PCCW is in the cross-hairs to be deleted from the MSCI in the May review.</p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>

A number of corporate developments have unfolded at PCCW Ltd (8 HK) over the past year including a partial offer from Richard Li (PCCW: Partial Offer To Lift Li Above 30%), lifting his stake above the general Offer threshold level of 30%; partially in-specie-ing its stake in Pacific Century Premium Developments (432 HK), such that the property developer is no longer consolidated; selling NOW TV to HKT Ltd (6823 HK); and selling non-core related investments in Malaysia.
The Partial Offer led to a significant narrowing in PCCW's discount to NAV, where it has steadfastly remained. 
PCCW has marginally underperformed the HSI over the past year - -4% vs -1.5% - but has outperformed HKT Ltd (6823 HK)'s -13.5%. 
Despite the gradual cleaning of house, and Li's move to consolidate greater control, PCCW's stub ops - ex-HKT - stubbornly remain in the red (on an EBITDA basis), as they have done so for near-on a decade.
Reports are now emerging PCCW is in the cross-hairs to be deleted from the MSCI in the May review.
As always, more below the fold.

Hong Kong

Citic Telecom International Holdings Ltd. provides connectivity services to telecommunications operators with a focus on the China and Hong Kong markets. The group owns and operates and independent telecommunication hubs.

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings Limited is an integrated mobile and fixed-line services telecom operator. The Company operates GSM dual-band and 3G mobile telecom services in Hong Kong and Macau. It also provides fixed-line telecom services for corporate, carrier, and international customers under the licensed "HGC" brand.

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings

HKBN Ltd., provides telephone voice and data communications services. The Company offers wireless internet service, IDD and IPTV service, local telephony services, and other value-added services.

APT Satellite Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, maintains, operates, and leases satellite telecommunication systems.

SmarTone Telecommunications Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides mobile telecommunication and related services and sells mobile telephones and accessories.

HKT Trust and HKT Ltd trade together as a stapled security.  HKT Ltd provides telecommunications services.  The Company's business provides telecommunications products and services including local telephony services, local data and broadband services, international telecommunications services, and other services.

Digital Domain Holdings Limited is a diversified investment holding company. The Company's operating and investment businesses span Hong Kong, the United States, Canada, Mainland China and other countries. Digital Domain Holdings also encompasses businesses such as media entertainment, VFX, co-production of movies, property investment, and trading.

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

SEEC Media Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides advertising agency services.

Sunny Side Up Culture Holdings Limited operates funeral business. The Company provides funeral, funeral planning, and cemetery services. Sunny Side Up Culture Holdings also provide movies production, concerts organization, and other entertainment services.

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

China Communications Services Corporation Limited provides specialized telecommunications support services to telecommunications operators.  The Company offers telecommunications infrastructure services, including design, construction and project supervision and management, business process outsourcing services , and applications, content and other services.

China Communications Services Corp Ltd. (552 HK)

Cogent Communications Holdings Inc. is a next generation optical Internet servic e provider focused on delivering ultra-high speed Internet access and transport services.The Company serves businesses in the multi-tenant marketplace and servi ce providers located in major metropolitan areas across the United States.

United Internet AG operates as an internet services company. The Company provides landline and mobile internet access products, as well as cloud applications at data centers with fixed monthly fees and volume-based charges. United Internet serves consumers and business clients worldwide.

Telecom Argentina SA provides telecommunications services including local, long-distance and international service in Argentina.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides cellular telecommunications services and offers paging services.

Bezeq Israeli Telecommunication Corporation Ltd. offers local, long-distance, and international telecommunications services in Israel.  The Company also offers Internet access lines, calling cards, and high volume data transfer networks.

True Corporation PCL is an integrated telecommunications provider. The Company offers a wide range of voice, video, and data services, including dial-up and broadband Internet services, pay television, fixed-line phone, online games, and mobile phone services.

LG Uplus Corp., an affiliate of LG Group, provides a wide range of personal communications services (PCS) using code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.  The Company offers call forwarding, call and data transfer, call waiting, voice mail, Internet-phone, prepaid call, and authentication text-to-speech (TTS) services.

Iridium Communications, Inc. offers mobile satellite communications services. The Company's satellites operate in a low-earth orbit and provide 100% global coverage.  Iridium Holdings offers voice and data communications services to the United States and foreign governments; businesses; non-governmental organizations; and consumers.

Proximus SA provides communication services and products to residential, business and corporate customers both domestically and internationally.  The Group offers multimedia products, payphones, pagers, operator services and calling cards.  Proximus SA also provides mobile phone and Internet services.

PCCW Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications, Internet access, multimedia services and related equipment.  The Company also offers computer, engineering, and other technical services in Hong Kong.  In addition, PCCW invests in and develops system integration and technology-related business, infrastructure and properties in Hong Kong and China.

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PCCW Ltd (8 HK)

StubWorld: Double Stub Via ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO

I estimate minimal upside for ThaiBev here if assuming a 25% discount to NAV. ThaiBev is trading at 16.5x trailing EV/EBITDA, but its forward EV...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Brilliance China, Harmonic Drive, Sawada, Japan Asia, Naspers/Tencent

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Naspers' Unsustainable Look-Through

Long Naspers vs Tencent, is the obvious trade at the current look-through value. IF Naspers+Prosus decides to sell some more Tencent, expect...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Evergrande Auto, PCCW, LG Corp

Chine Evergrande (3333 HK) looks "cheap" and Evergrande Auto (708 HK) frothy, suggesting a set-up here. Personally, I would avoid both.

David Blennerhassett

PCCW (8 HK): Possible MSCI Deletion

PCCW appears to be fully priced at 2+STD on a NAV discount. I would look to unwind here if already in, and look to reverse the stub - Short PCCW,...

David Blennerhassett

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