IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Equity Capital Markets

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN)</a> provides e-retailing of beauty and fashion products through two verticals Nykaa (beauty and personal care) and Nykaa Fashion (apparel and accessories). Nykaa is the largest speciality beauty and personal care platform in India as measured by the value of products sold in the FY21 and in 5MFY22 (five months ending August), according to RedSeer. </p><p>Nykaa will launch its IPO on 28 October. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs6,300 million ($84 million) with the remainder 42.0 million secondary shares. At the indicative price range of Rs1,085-1,125 per share, the gross proceeds are Rs51.8-53.2 billion ($691-714 million). The secondary sellers include promoters Falguni Nayar and Sanjay Nayar (through Sanjay Nayar Family Trust), TPG and Lighthouse.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nykaa-ipo-initiation-beauty-parade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58791" rel="noopener">Nykaa IPO Initiation: Beauty Parade</a>, we stated that Nykaa has a strong positioning in India’s e-commerce beauty products industry, underpinned by the strong brand recognition of the ‘Nykaa’ brand. It has been able to retain a large customer base, leading to repeat orders such that existing consumers accounted for 70% of GMV in FY21. Nykaa also has relationships with 2,476 brands but with no dependence on any brand or product. The financial performance is solid with strong growth, rising margins and cash generation. These characteristics should enable Nykaa to hold its own against intensifying competition. We concluded that Nykaa has attractive fundamentals.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we look at the updated prospectus which outlines the 1QFY22 results (for the quarter ending June) and KPIs for 5MFY22 (five months ending August). Overall, the recent results reinforce our view that Nykaa has the ability to deliver strong profitable growth. We will discuss valuation in our next note.  </p></div>

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN) provides e-retailing of beauty and fashion products through two verticals Nykaa (beauty and personal care) and Nykaa Fashion (apparel and accessories). Nykaa is the largest speciality beauty and personal care platform in India as measured by the value of products sold in the FY21 and in 5MFY22 (five months ending August), according to RedSeer. Nykaa will launch its IPO on 28 October. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs6,300 million ($84 million) with the remainder 42.0 million secondary shares. At the indicative price range of Rs1,085-1,125 per share, the gross proceeds are Rs51.8-53.2 billion ($691-714 million). The secondary sellers include promoters Falguni Nayar and Sanjay Nayar (through Sanjay Nayar Family Trust), TPG and Lighthouse.In Nykaa IPO Initiation: Beauty Parade, we stated that Nykaa has a strong positioning in India’s e-commerce beauty products industry, underpinned by the strong brand recognition of the ‘Nykaa’ brand. It has been able to retain a large customer base, leading to repeat orders such that existing consumers accounted for 70% of GMV in FY21. Nykaa also has relationships with 2,476 brands but with no dependence on any brand or product. The financial performance is solid with strong growth, rising margins and cash generation. These characteristics should enable Nykaa to hold its own against intensifying competition. We concluded that Nykaa has attractive fundamentals.In this note, we look at the updated prospectus which outlines the 1QFY22 results (for the quarter ending June) and KPIs for 5MFY22 (five months ending August). Overall, the recent results reinforce our view that Nykaa has the ability to deliver strong profitable growth. We will discuss valuation in our next note.  

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>The Oyo listing should be a win for Softbank Group, which owns 47% (pre-listing) for a mere $1.1bn but initial pricing talk of $10-12bn seems wildly optimistic when matched against comparable valuations for premium online travel companies like Airbnb (implied Oyo value $4bn) or India tech ($7bn). Last year we thought this was worthless, so the turnaround is a pleasant surprise but we would not be buyers over INR 80/share ($7bn).</p>

The Oyo listing should be a win for Softbank Group, which owns 47% (pre-listing) for a mere $1.1bn but initial pricing talk of $10-12bn seems wildly optimistic when matched against comparable valuations for premium online travel companies like Airbnb (implied Oyo value $4bn) or India tech ($7bn). Last year we thought this was worthless, so the turnaround is a pleasant surprise but we would not be buyers over INR 80/share ($7bn).

Oyo and Softbank Group - This Would Be Generously Valued at $4-7bn but that Keeps CEO Under Water

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN)</a> provides e-retailing of beauty and fashion products through two verticals Nykaa (beauty and personal care) and Nykaa Fashion (apparel and accessories). Nykaa is the largest speciality beauty and personal care platform in India as measured by the value of products sold in the FY21, according to RedSeer. </p><p>Nykaa is looking to raise $500 million through an IPO in India, according to press reports. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs5,250 million ($70 million) and 43.1 million secondary shares. </p><p>Nykaa has a large addressable market opportunity with the beauty and personal care opportunity currently worth $16 billion and the fashion opportunity currently worth $54 billion, according to RedSeer. At 8% penetration in FY21, beauty and personal care are one of the more underpenetrated e-commerce categories in India. Online penetration in fashion in India is slightly higher at 12% in FY21 but is still relatively low compared to mature e-tailing categories such as mobiles and electronics. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Nykaa has a strong positioning in India’s e-commerce beauty products industry, underpinned by the strong brand recognition of the ‘Nykaa’ brand. It has been able to retain a large customer base, leading to repeat orders such that existing consumers accounted for 70% of GMV in FY21. Nykaa also has relationships with 2,476 brands but with no dependence on any brand or product. The financial performance is solid with strong growth, rising margins and cash generation. These characteristics should enable Nykaa to hold its own against intensifying competition. Overall, we think that Nykaa has attractive fundamentals.</p></div>

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN) provides e-retailing of beauty and fashion products through two verticals Nykaa (beauty and personal care) and Nykaa Fashion (apparel and accessories). Nykaa is the largest speciality beauty and personal care platform in India as measured by the value of products sold in the FY21, according to RedSeer. Nykaa is looking to raise $500 million through an IPO in India, according to press reports. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs5,250 million ($70 million) and 43.1 million secondary shares. Nykaa has a large addressable market opportunity with the beauty and personal care opportunity currently worth $16 billion and the fashion opportunity currently worth $54 billion, according to RedSeer. At 8% penetration in FY21, beauty and personal care are one of the more underpenetrated e-commerce categories in India. Online penetration in fashion in India is slightly higher at 12% in FY21 but is still relatively low compared to mature e-tailing categories such as mobiles and electronics. Nykaa has a strong positioning in India’s e-commerce beauty products industry, underpinned by the strong brand recognition of the ‘Nykaa’ brand. It has been able to retain a large customer base, leading to repeat orders such that existing consumers accounted for 70% of GMV in FY21. Nykaa also has relationships with 2,476 brands but with no dependence on any brand or product. The financial performance is solid with strong growth, rising margins and cash generation. These characteristics should enable Nykaa to hold its own against intensifying competition. Overall, we think that Nykaa has attractive fundamentals.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> (7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> (2.8%).  </p>
<p>Paytm is in talks with firms such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIC, Blackrock and Noumra to become anchor investors in its upcoming IPO, according to press reports. Paytm is also seeking to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) at a $20-22 billion valuation, according to press reports. </p>
</div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paytm-ipo-initiation-a-payments-led-super-app" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54983" rel="noopener">Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App</a>, we opined that as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-mobikwik-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33952:1" rel="noopener">One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)</a>) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. We concluded that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we take a first look at Paytm's valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.</p></div>
</div></div>


Paytm (PAYTM IN), formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) (7.2%) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) (2.8%).  
Paytm is in talks with firms such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIC, Blackrock and Noumra to become anchor investors in its upcoming IPO, according to press reports. Paytm is also seeking to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) at a $20-22 billion valuation, according to press reports. 

In Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App, we opined that as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. We concluded that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. 
In this note, we take a first look at Paytm's valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.


Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The next financial report for Softbank will be a tough one. With the quarterly results in, Vision Fund’s public portfolio losses appear to be in the range of $18.3bn with another $1.4bn in losses for parent level investments. China exposure is a major driver whilst Coupang continues to spiral down from the heady highs in March. The holding company discount has held up (-41% v -44% at Q1-end) but the underlying value per share has spiraled down as VF and Alibaba weaken. We think a higher discount makes more sense but optimism on upcoming IPOs for PayTM and AutoStore could lend support in the near-term. </p>

The next financial report for Softbank will be a tough one. With the quarterly results in, Vision Fund’s public portfolio losses appear to be in the range of $18.3bn with another $1.4bn in losses for parent level investments. China exposure is a major driver whilst Coupang continues to spiral down from the heady highs in March. The holding company discount has held up (-41% v -44% at Q1-end) but the underlying value per share has spiraled down as VF and Alibaba weaken. We think a higher discount makes more sense but optimism on upcoming IPOs for PayTM and AutoStore could lend support in the near-term. 

Softbank Group - A First Look at Investment Losses for the Quarter

India

One 97 Communications Limited provides payment solutions. The Company provides online services such as hotel booking, top ups, data processing, games, mobile content, and bill payments. One 97 Communications Limited serves customers worldwide.

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Paytm (PAYTM IN)

Nykaa IPO: On Trend

In this note, we look at the updated prospectus which outlines 1QFY22 results and KPIs for 5MFY22. The recent results reinforce our view that Nykaa...

Arun George

Oyo and Softbank Group - This Would Be Generously Valued at $4-7bn but that Keeps CEO Under Water

An Oyo listing is a likely win for Softbank, which owns 47% for a mere $1.1bn but pricing talk of $10-12bn is optimistic compared to the $4-7bn...

Kirk Boodry

Nykaa IPO Initiation: Beauty Parade

Nykaa is looking to raise $500 m through an IPO in India. The financial performance is solid with strong growth, rising margins and cash...

Arun George

Paytm IPO: Valuation First Look

Paytm is seeking to raise up to $2.2 billion at a $20-22 billion valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured...

Arun George

Softbank Group - A First Look at Investment Losses for the Quarter

The next financial report for Softbank will be a tough one. With quarterly results in, Vision Fund’s public portfolio losses are c. $18.3bn. We...

Kirk Boodry

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