Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>’s 1QFY23 was broadly in line with consensus estimates with revenue and OP of ¥473.7bn (consensus: ¥473.8bn) and ¥23.9bn (consensus: ¥23.8bn) respectively.</li>
<li>Personal brands growth and Asia expansion are driving up PPIH’s margins while most companies in the consumer sphere are failing to pass down cost inflation.</li>
<li>With signs of OP moving to the pre-UNY acquisition level, we think that there’s an upside to the company’s medium-term guidance and consensus.</li>
</ul>



Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s 1QFY23 was broadly in line with consensus estimates with revenue and OP of ¥473.7bn (consensus: ¥473.8bn) and ¥23.9bn (consensus: ¥23.8bn) respectively.
Personal brands growth and Asia expansion are driving up PPIH’s margins while most companies in the consumer sphere are failing to pass down cost inflation.
With signs of OP moving to the pre-UNY acquisition level, we think that there’s an upside to the company’s medium-term guidance and consensus.


PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

<ul>
<li>After beating the Q4 consensus OP by more than 26%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>’s share price has bounced back towards the mid-point of its long-term trend channel.</li>
<li>With inbound demand set to return to further boost PPIH’s profitability, we are expecting additional upside to consensus FY23 OP, which is based on conservative company guidance.</li>
<li>Based on the FY+1 consensus OP to share price trend, our annual run-rate OP estimate of ¥160bn suggests that there could be an additional 50% upside to Pan Pacific International.</li>
</ul>


After beating the Q4 consensus OP by more than 26%, Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s share price has bounced back towards the mid-point of its long-term trend channel.
With inbound demand set to return to further boost PPIH’s profitability, we are expecting additional upside to consensus FY23 OP, which is based on conservative company guidance.
Based on the FY+1 consensus OP to share price trend, our annual run-rate OP estimate of ¥160bn suggests that there could be an additional 50% upside to Pan Pacific International.


PPIH – Inbound Demand & Personal Brands Growth Could Propel The Share Price Above ¥4,000

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance will be done in three parts due to the delisting of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shizuoka-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4437:1" rel="noopener">Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP)</a> and the relisting of Shizuoka Financial Group (5831).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC Corp (6273 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unitika-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7669:1" rel="noopener">Unitika Ltd (3103 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oki-electric-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2181:1" rel="noopener">Oki Electric Industry (6703 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy over 10 days ADV on the adds and there is a large impact of the funding trade given the add/delete size difference.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance will be done in three parts due to the delisting of Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP) and the relisting of Shizuoka Financial Group (5831).

Nidec Corp (6594 JP), SMC Corp (6273 JP) and Hoya Corp (7741 JP) replace Unitika Ltd (3103 JP), Oki Electric Industry (6703 JP) and Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP). 
Passive trackers need to buy over 10 days ADV on the adds and there is a large impact of the funding trade given the add/delete size difference.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mostly on Expected Lines

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The "Accelerated Share Repurchase" construct for share repurchases is used with some degree of regularity in the United States. It is theoretically legal, but heretofore unused, in Japan to-date.</li>
<li>Home improvement retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyful-honda-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13616:1" rel="noopener">Joyful Honda (3191 JP)</a> today announced a buyback of ¥2.5bn, in line with the Share Repurchase Plan announcement made in early June.  That's the first step.</li>
<li>The rest is pretty easy and straight-forward, but given its novelty, it may deserve explanation.</li>
</ul>


The "Accelerated Share Repurchase" construct for share repurchases is used with some degree of regularity in the United States. It is theoretically legal, but heretofore unused, in Japan to-date.
Home improvement retailer Joyful Honda (3191 JP) today announced a buyback of ¥2.5bn, in line with the Share Repurchase Plan announcement made in early June.  That's the first step.
The rest is pretty easy and straight-forward, but given its novelty, it may deserve explanation.


Joyful Honda Conducts Japan's First* Official ASR - And It Remains Cheap on an MBO Framework

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the September rebalance of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.
The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

PPIH’s medium-term guidance of ¥120bn OP (6% OPM) in FY25 could be conservative, especially considering that there’s an additional upside to PPIH’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mostly on Expected Lines

There are 4 changes to the index that will be executed in three parts - changes were mostly expected. One-way turnover is expected at 2.68% and...

Brian Freitas

Joyful Honda Conducts Japan's First* Official ASR - And It Remains Cheap on an MBO Framework

DIY store operator Joyful Honda has improved earnings structure and shareholder payout dramatically in the last five years. It has bought back...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

The market consultation conclusion were confirmed last week. We expect 3 changes to the index in September and another 3 in March. The adds/deletes...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

PPIH’s medium-term guidance of ¥120bn OP (6% OPM) in FY25 could be conservative, especially considering that there’s an additional upside to PPIH’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

PPIH – Inbound Demand & Personal Brands Growth Could Propel The Share Price Above ¥4,000

With inbound demand set to return to further boost PPIH’s profitability, we are expecting additional upside to consensus FY23 OP, which is based on...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mostly on Expected Lines

There are 4 changes to the index that will be executed in three parts - changes were mostly expected. One-way turnover is expected at 2.68% and...

Brian Freitas

Joyful Honda Conducts Japan's First* Official ASR - And It Remains Cheap on an MBO Framework

DIY store operator Joyful Honda has improved earnings structure and shareholder payout dramatically in the last five years. It has bought back...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

The market consultation conclusion were confirmed last week. We expect 3 changes to the index in September and another 3 in March. The adds/deletes...

Brian Freitas