Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in March while there are 3 deletions for the index.</li>
<li>The constituent changes along with float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a one-way trade of US$263m.</li>
<li>There are 9 stocks with more than US$10m to trade and 9 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>



Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) will be added to the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March while there are 3 deletions for the index.
The constituent changes along with float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a one-way trade of US$263m.
There are 9 stocks with more than US$10m to trade and 9 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Over US$500m to Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs and our flow expectations for the index rebal event in March 2024. </li>
</ul>


The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs and our flow expectations for the index rebal event in March 2024. 


Quiddity Leaderboard MV J-Gold Miners Mar 24: One High-Conviction DEL and More Low-Conviction Cases

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Gold continued to rise in December, gaining 1.3% on the month and closed out 2023 up 13% to $2,062/oz.</li>
<li>Sentiment Update Gold closed out the year up 13% at $2,062/oz, marking an all-time high in December at $2,135/oz.</li>
<li>Uranium posted yet another month of positive gains, ending the month up 12% at $91.0/lb and closing the year up 89%.</li>
</ul>


Gold continued to rise in December, gaining 1.3% on the month and closed out 2023 up 13% to $2,062/oz.
Sentiment Update Gold closed out the year up 13% at $2,062/oz, marking an all-time high in December at $2,135/oz.
Uranium posted yet another month of positive gains, ending the month up 12% at $91.0/lb and closing the year up 89%.


<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in December, but there are float and capping changes for some stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% and that leads to a one-way trade of US$122m.</li>
<li>There are 13 stocks with over US$5m to trade from passive trackers, though the impact is not very big on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December, but there are float and capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% and that leads to a one-way trade of US$122m.
There are 13 stocks with over US$5m to trade from passive trackers, though the impact is not very big on the stocks.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes

Canada

Alamos Gold Inc. is an intermediate gold producer. The Company acquires, explores and produces gold from mines located in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

Yamana Gold Inc. is an intermediate gold producer with production, development stage, and exploration properties throughout Brazil.  The Company also holds gold exploration properties in Argentina.

B2Gold Corporation is a gold exploration and production company. The Company is a Vancouver based gold producer with mines in Nicaragua and a portfolio of development and exploration assets in Nicaragua, Colombia and Uruguay.

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd operates as a precious metal royalty and stream company. The Company holds royalties and streams in base metals, gold, and silver mines. Osisko Gold Royalties serves customers in Canada.

Lundin Gold Inc. is a Canadian mining company. The Company owns and operates gold projects located in southeast Ecuador.

Hudbay Minerals Inc. operates as a mining company. The Company mines and produces zinc, copper, gold, and silver. Hudbay Minerals offers its services across the Americas .

IAMGOLD Corporation is a mid-tier gold mining company. The Company is focused in West Africa, the Guiana Shield of South America and in Quebec where it has a pipeline of development and exploration projects.

First Majestic Silver Corp. is a silver producing mining company.  The Company's presently owns and operates producing silver mines in Mexico; the La Parrilla Silver Mine, the San Martin Silver Mine, the La Encantada Silver Mine, the La Guitarra Silver Mine, and Del Toro Silver Mine.

Sandstorm Gold Ltd. acquires gold purchase agreements with companies that have advanced stage development projects or operating mines.  The Company makes an upfront cash payment to its partners and receives the right to purchase a percentage of the gold produced, for the life of the mine, at a fixed price per ounce.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and markets aluminum products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, aluminum rolls, and aluminum alloys.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates coal businesses. The Company mines, processes, and distributes coal, cokes, coal chemical products, and other products. Huaibei Mining Holdings also produces methanol, crude benzene, ammonium sulfate, and other products.

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Over US$500m to Trade

There is 1 add and 3 deletes for the GDXJ in March. The constituent changes along with float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard MV J-Gold Miners Mar 24: One High-Conviction DEL and More Low-Conviction Cases

The inaugural leaderboard coverage for the "MV" Jr Gold Miner Index. It is an interesting index with somewhat high float tracking. There is one...

Travis Lundy

Mining Monthly: December Edition

Gold continued to rise in December, gaining 1.3% on the month and closed out 2023 up 13% to $2,062/oz. Sentiment Update Gold closed out the year...

Atrium Research

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes

There are no constituent changes for the stocks, but there are a lot of float changes and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% and...

Brian Freitas

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