Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.</li><li>M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.</li><li>Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.</li></ul>

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan American Silver (PAAS) completed the Yamana transaction at the end of March, continuing its track record of timely and value-accretive acquisitions that add scale and improve profitability. With the full annualised contribution from the Yamana assets, we estimate PAAS will produce c 25Moz of silver and 1.1Moz of gold in FY24. The anticipated launch of Escobal (FY25e) could further increase silver production to above 40Moz, bringing PAAS closer to the industry leader, Fresnillo. In this note we reinstate our estimates and update our valuation to reflect the Yamana acquisition. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation is now US$22.5/share.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) completed the Yamana transaction at the end of March, continuing its track record of timely and value-accretive acquisitions that add scale and improve profitability. With the full annualised contribution from the Yamana assets, we estimate PAAS will produce c 25Moz of silver and 1.1Moz of gold in FY24. The anticipated launch of Escobal (FY25e) could further increase silver production to above 40Moz, bringing PAAS closer to the industry leader, Fresnillo. In this note we reinstate our estimates and update our valuation to reflect the Yamana acquisition. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation is now US$22.5/share. 

Pan American Silver - Bigger scale, stronger profitability

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives</li>
<li>Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). </li>
</ul>


Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). 


Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported that the Mexican Federal Economic Competition Commission approved the company’s plan of arrangement with Yamana and Agnico Eagle. This is the final regulatory approval that paves the way for the completion of the transaction, which is guided to occur by end March, in line with management’s expectations. In other news, PAAS recommended a Q123 cash dividend of US$0.10 per share, implying a 2.2% yield on an annualised basis.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported that the Mexican Federal Economic Competition Commission approved the company’s plan of arrangement with Yamana and Agnico Eagle. This is the final regulatory approval that paves the way for the completion of the transaction, which is guided to occur by end March, in line with management’s expectations. In other news, PAAS recommended a Q123 cash dividend of US$0.10 per share, implying a 2.2% yield on an annualised basis.

Pan American Silver - Yamana transaction fully approved

Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported an encouraging set of Q4/FY22 results, with Q4 EBITDA of US$92.3m exceeding consensus expectations by c 21% and FY22 EBITDA coming in at US$272m, c 6% above consensus. The bottom line was negatively affected by US$157.3m of one-off costs relating to the Yamana transaction, which is expected to be completed in Q123. Our valuation and forecasts remain under review.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported an encouraging set of Q4/FY22 results, with Q4 EBITDA of US$92.3m exceeding consensus expectations by c 21% and FY22 EBITDA coming in at US$272m, c 6% above consensus. The bottom line was negatively affected by US$157.3m of one-off costs relating to the Yamana transaction, which is expected to be completed in Q123. Our valuation and forecasts remain under review.

Pan American Silver - FY22 results beat consensus expectations

United States

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS US)

Mining Monthly: May Edition

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months...

Atrium Research

Pan American Silver - Bigger scale, stronger profitability

Pan American Silver (PAAS) completed the Yamana transaction at the end of March, continuing its track record of timely and value-accretive...

Edison Investment Research

Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Defensive Sectors including Health Care $XLV, Utilities $RYU $XLU, and Staples $XLP are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price...

Vermilion Research

Pan American Silver - Yamana transaction fully approved

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported that the Mexican Federal Economic Competition Commission approved the company’s plan of arrangement with...

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver - FY22 results beat consensus expectations

Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported an encouraging set of Q4/FY22 results, with Q4 EBITDA of US$92.3m exceeding consensus expectations by c 21% and...

Edison Investment Research

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