IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer.Paytm’s shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> (7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> (2.8%).  </p><p>Paytm will launch its IPO on 8 November at an indicative price range of Rs2,080-2,150 per share. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs83,000 million ($1.1 billion) and a secondary raise up to Rs100,000 million ($1.3 billion). The total IPO proceeds of $2.4 billion are around 10% higher than its earlier target. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paytm-ipo-initiation-a-payments-led-super-app" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54983" rel="noopener">Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App</a>, we stated as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-mobikwik-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33952:1" rel="noopener">One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)</a>) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim for the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we look at the updated prospectus which outlines the 1QFY22 results (for the quarter ending June) and recent developments. Overall, the recent results show a strong return to growth, reducing loss margin and reinforce our view that Paytm has attractive fundamentals. We will discuss valuation in our next note.  </p></div>

Paytm (PAYTM IN), formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer.Paytm’s shareholders include Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) (7.2%) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) (2.8%).  Paytm will launch its IPO on 8 November at an indicative price range of Rs2,080-2,150 per share. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs83,000 million ($1.1 billion) and a secondary raise up to Rs100,000 million ($1.3 billion). The total IPO proceeds of $2.4 billion are around 10% higher than its earlier target. In Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App, we stated as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim for the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. In this note, we look at the updated prospectus which outlines the 1QFY22 results (for the quarter ending June) and recent developments. Overall, the recent results show a strong return to growth, reducing loss margin and reinforce our view that Paytm has attractive fundamentals. We will discuss valuation in our next note.  

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</p></div><div></div><div>
<p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant, </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-peer-comparison-local-and-international" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and</a></li>
</ul>
</div><ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-valuation-and-likely-impact-of-latest-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement</a></li></ul><div><p>As the company is slated to be in front of investors again and finally launch its bookbuilding next week, in this note we will talk about the updates from the refiled prospectus and have a relook at valuations.</p></div>

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:

Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant, 
Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and

Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest AnnouncementAs the company is slated to be in front of investors again and finally launch its bookbuilding next week, in this note we will talk about the updates from the refiled prospectus and have a relook at valuations.

Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> (7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> (2.8%).  </p>
<p>Paytm is in talks with firms such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIC, Blackrock and Noumra to become anchor investors in its upcoming IPO, according to press reports. Paytm is also seeking to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) at a $20-22 billion valuation, according to press reports. </p>
</div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paytm-ipo-initiation-a-payments-led-super-app" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54983" rel="noopener">Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App</a>, we opined that as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-mobikwik-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33952:1" rel="noopener">One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)</a>) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. We concluded that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we take a first look at Paytm's valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.</p></div>
</div></div>


Paytm (PAYTM IN), formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) (7.2%) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) (2.8%).  
Paytm is in talks with firms such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, GIC, Blackrock and Noumra to become anchor investors in its upcoming IPO, according to press reports. Paytm is also seeking to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) at a $20-22 billion valuation, according to press reports. 

In Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App, we opined that as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, One Mobikwik Systems (1235487D IN)) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. We concluded that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. 
In this note, we take a first look at Paytm's valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a> has been one of the best performing SaaS stocks in the United States in the past year. Upstart Holdings completed its IPO in December 2020 at an IPO price of $20 per share. Since then, its share price has skyrocketed by 1,252% to reach $270.46 per share. Upstart's market cap has also jumped to $21 billion. Upstart Holdings is also one of the comps to Kakao Pay that the bankers used to price the Kakao Pay IPO. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>All in all, Upstart Holdings has experienced extraordinary growth in sales and profits in the past couple of years, driven by its superior AI driven technologies in the personal and auto loans sector. Upstart Holdings is clearly one of the most important companies to pay attention in the global AI-driven lending industry. </p>
<p>As Kakao Pay is trying to complete its IPO next month, it has chosen to include Upstart Holdings as one of the comps. However, we have concerns that investors are likely to put significant discount on the relative valuations of Kakao Pay as compared to Upstart due to the following factors such as increased regulatory scrutiny on the fintech services provided by Kakao Pay and higher marketing and operating costs that are likely to be required to change the way its current financial services are provided.</p>
</div>

Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US) has been one of the best performing SaaS stocks in the United States in the past year. Upstart Holdings completed its IPO in December 2020 at an IPO price of $20 per share. Since then, its share price has skyrocketed by 1,252% to reach $270.46 per share. Upstart's market cap has also jumped to $21 billion. Upstart Holdings is also one of the comps to Kakao Pay that the bankers used to price the Kakao Pay IPO. 
All in all, Upstart Holdings has experienced extraordinary growth in sales and profits in the past couple of years, driven by its superior AI driven technologies in the personal and auto loans sector. Upstart Holdings is clearly one of the most important companies to pay attention in the global AI-driven lending industry. 
As Kakao Pay is trying to complete its IPO next month, it has chosen to include Upstart Holdings as one of the comps. However, we have concerns that investors are likely to put significant discount on the relative valuations of Kakao Pay as compared to Upstart due to the following factors such as increased regulatory scrutiny on the fintech services provided by Kakao Pay and higher marketing and operating costs that are likely to be required to change the way its current financial services are provided.


Upstart Holdings - Up 1,252% from the IPO Price & A Key Comp for Kakao Pay

Event-Driven

<div><p>Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. It ended the first day of trading up 79% from its IPO price. </p></div><div>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:</div><div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-riding-on-parent-s-network-but-boundaries-with-kakao-pay-remain-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-pricey-as-it-should-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-lack-of-lock-up-and-msci-ftse-index-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-trading-one-for-instis-closer-look-at-ftse-and-msci-inclusion-remain-buyers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the first day trading and index inclusion.</p></div>

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. It ended the first day of trading up 79% from its IPO price. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:

Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear, 
Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be
Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications, and
Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers
In this note, we will talk about the first day trading and index inclusion.

Kakao Bank - MSCI Done, Missed FTSE by a Whisker.

Brazil

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. provides financial technology services. The Company offers multiple digital payment solutions, in-person payments via point of sales devices, and prepaid cards services. Pagseguro Digital serves clients in Brazil and the United States.

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Pagseguro Digital Ltd (PAGS US)

Paytm IPO: Bright Spot

Paytm will launch its IPO on 8 November to raise $2.4 bn. The updated prospectus which outlines the 1QFY22 results and recent developments...

Arun George

Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment

Kakao Pay aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. In this note, we will look at the recent updates and revisit our valuation.

Sumeet Singh

Paytm IPO: Valuation First Look

Paytm is seeking to raise up to $2.2 billion at a $20-22 billion valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured...

Arun George

Upstart Holdings - Up 1,252% from the IPO Price & A Key Comp for Kakao Pay

Upstart Holdings has experienced extraordinary growth in sales and profits in the past couple of years, driven by its superior AI driven...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Bank - MSCI Done, Missed FTSE by a Whisker.

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. It ended the first day of trading up 79% from its IPO...

Sumeet Singh

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