Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-of-lithium-equals-has-index-surprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101879" rel="noopener">Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-enlarged-charging-unit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101914" rel="noopener">Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit</a> is on track.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230928/pdf/05vdp2j4k6sqn9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As of the end of last month</a>, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.</li>
<li>The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.</li>
</ul>


The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises and Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit is on track.

As of the end of last month, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.
The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.


Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update:  MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

<ul>
<li>The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. </li>
<li>It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"</li>
<li>But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-update-much-more-than-meets-the-eye" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. 
It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"
But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details here.


Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> inked a $US10bn+ "merger of equals" with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>, ostensibly forming the world's fifth largest lithium producer.</li>
<li>Allkem's Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem's board unanimously recommends the transaction. </li>
<li>This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. </li>
</ul>


On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ "merger of equals" with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world's fifth largest lithium producer.
Allkem's Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem's board unanimously recommends the transaction. 
This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. 


Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> has reached an agreement to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">(ALTM US)</a> for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to the October 4th closing price of $US3.08/share.</li>
<li>Terms remain below where Arcadium was trading back in January of this year. But it is perhaps disingenuous to call the Offer Price opportunistic. More a counter-cyclical move.</li>
<li>The Scheme Offer is subject to a 75% shareholder vote and minimal regulatory approvals. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has reached an agreement to buy Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/(ALTM US) for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to the October 4th closing price of $US3.08/share.
Terms remain below where Arcadium was trading back in January of this year. But it is perhaps disingenuous to call the Offer Price opportunistic. More a counter-cyclical move.
The Scheme Offer is subject to a 75% shareholder vote and minimal regulatory approvals. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: More Brine To Compliment Rocks

Australia

Allkem Limited operates as a specialty lithium chemicals company. The Company's portfolio includes lithium brine and borax operations in Argentina, a hard-rock lithium operation in Australia and a lithium hydroxide conversion facility in Japan.

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Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)

Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update: MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

The Allkem/Livent Shareholder Meetings take place 19 Dec. If agreed, this deal gets done quickly. Then we have index fun. The price of lithium...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Allkem/Livent shareholder meetings are tomorrow. Sentiment is mixed but this likely gets done. And if not, Allkem is likely the one to own. Once...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

This looks done. Buy Livent (LTHM US). And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in days following.

David Blennerhassett

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: More Brine To Compliment Rocks

This looks done.Trading at a 6.1%/8.6% gross/annualised return using mid 2025 completion. That's okay. Not super attractive. Additionally, run a...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update: MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

The Allkem/Livent Shareholder Meetings take place 19 Dec. If agreed, this deal gets done quickly. Then we have index fun. The price of lithium...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Allkem/Livent shareholder meetings are tomorrow. Sentiment is mixed but this likely gets done. And if not, Allkem is likely the one to own. Once...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

This looks done. Buy Livent (LTHM US). And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in days following.

David Blennerhassett

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: More Brine To Compliment Rocks

This looks done.Trading at a 6.1%/8.6% gross/annualised return using mid 2025 completion. That's okay. Not super attractive. Additionally, run a...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem/Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote