Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.</li>
<li>I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).</li>
<li>The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.
I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).
The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. 


Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.</li>
<li>There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. </li>
<li>Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. </li>
</ul>


The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.
There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. 
Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. 


Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

<ul>
<li>The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. </li>
<li>A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.</li>
<li>Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.</li>
</ul>


The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. 
A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.
Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.


TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Shin Keisei Electric Railway / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan-Based Railway Company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> (<strong>"Keisei"</strong>) and its 44.64%-owned equity method affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-keisei-electric-railway" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6262:1" rel="noopener">Shin Keisei Electric Railway (9014 JP)</a> (<strong>"Shin Keisei"</strong>) have signed a Share Exchange Agreement.</li>
<li>Shin Keisei Shareholders will receive 0.82 Keisei Shares per Shin Keisei Share. Following the completion of this Deal, Shin Keisei will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keisei.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the details of this Transaction and the likelihood of Deal Completion.</li>
</ul>


Japan-Based Railway Company Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) ("Keisei") and its 44.64%-owned equity method affiliate Shin Keisei Electric Railway (9014 JP) ("Shin Keisei") have signed a Share Exchange Agreement.
Shin Keisei Shareholders will receive 0.82 Keisei Shares per Shin Keisei Share. Following the completion of this Deal, Shin Keisei will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keisei.
Below is a closer look at the details of this Transaction and the likelihood of Deal Completion.


Keisei-Shin Keisei: Merger Seems like a Done Deal

Japan

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. operates a hamburger fast food restaurant chain throughout Japan.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores.

ZENSHO Holdings CO., LTD. operates a fast food chain specialized in GYUDON which serves bowls of rice topped with seasoned beef based in Kanto.      The Company operates also diversifying into other types of food chains such as "Coco's" and "Big Boy" in Japan.

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

RESORTTRUST, INC. plans, develops, markets, and operates timeshare resort hotels under the "XIV" and "SUN MEMBERS" brand name.  The Company's resort facilities are located in the suburb of major Japanese cities.  Resorttrust operates golf courses.

ROUND ONE Corporation operates bowling alleys and video game arcades.  The Company operates primarily in the Osaka area.

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation operates a variety of restaurants such as skewered grill chicken, Japanese noodle, ramen noodle, Japanese-style pancake, and pasta restaurants.  The Company operates its business at food courts in shopping centers, stations, highway rest areas, and suburbs.

create restaurants holdings inc. operates direct-run Western, Chinese, and Japanese restaurants.  The Company also operates fast food restaurants.

create restaurants holdings inc. (3387 JP)

SAIZERIYA CO., LTD. operates an Italian restaurant chain based in the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company's menu includes pizza, pasta, seafood, and meat entrees.

KYORITSU MAINTENANCE CO., LTD operates student dormitories and dormitories for young businessmen throughout Japan.  The Company builds condominiums and dormitories.

Food & Life Companies Limited operates sushi restaurant chains. The Company operates kaiten sushi stores and restaurants, sushi takeout, sushi bars with snacks, and more. Food & Life Companies serves customers worldwide.

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. owns and operates quick serve Mexican restaurants. The Company manages restaurants throughout the United States.

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Indian Hotels Company Limited operates The Taj Group of hotels.  The Company owns or maintains long term leases/licenses for hotels in India, in addition to International hotels.  The Group's hotels are divided into three groups: Luxury, Business, and, Leisure.

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

The September Nikkei 225 Rebal announcement is ~ 6 weeks away. Assuming the current plans go through, I see three adds, three deletes. The adds are...

Travis Lundy

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

The TOPIX Rebalance at end-May is upon us. ¥700+bn of buys and ¥700bn of sell flows at the close today (Friday). The big buys are NTT, Sony,...

Travis Lundy

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Keisei-Shin Keisei: Merger Seems like a Done Deal

Japan-Based Railway Company Keisei Electric Railway and its 44.64%-owned equity method affiliate Shin Keisei Electric Railway have signed a Share...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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