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<ul><li>Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to demand sluggishness (elections impact and heavy rains all around)</li><li>At the industry level, we estimate demand contracted by 2% YoY in Q2FY25, as against ~4% YoY growth in Q1FY25</li><li>We estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will decline 1% YoY in Q2, implying a 14% QoQ volume decline</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to demand sluggishness (elections impact and heavy rains all around)At the industry level, we estimate demand contracted by 2% YoY in Q2FY25, as against ~4% YoY growth in Q1FY25We estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will decline 1% YoY in Q2, implying a 14% QoQ volume declineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Demand Contracts and Pricing Slip Further in Q2

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas production</li><li>In Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory levies</li><li>PAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costs</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas productionIn Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory leviesPAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

<ul><li>Demand growth slows in Q1FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during the general elections in April and May has adversely impacted cement sales in these months</li><li>The scorching heat further dented demand during Q1FY25 and the industry demand growth is expected to slow down to low single digit YoY</li><li>We estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will deliver 5% YoY volume growth, implying 8% QoQ volume decline.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand growth slows in Q1FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during the general elections in April and May has adversely impacted cement sales in these monthsThe scorching heat further dented demand during Q1FY25 and the industry demand growth is expected to slow down to low single digit YoYWe estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will deliver 5% YoY volume growth, implying 8% QoQ volume decline.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q1FY25 Results Preview): Weak Pricing Continues to Offset Cost Gains

<ul><li>Ambuja Cement: We maintain ADD with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (16.5x its consolidated FY26E EBITDA)</li><li>During Q4FY24, consolidated volumes rose 17% YoY owing to the low base and ramp-up of recently acquired Sanghi plants</li><li>Weak pricing across markets drove down NSR by INR 394/MT QoQ (-7%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cement: We maintain ADD with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (16.5x its consolidated FY26E EBITDA)During Q4FY24, consolidated volumes rose 17% YoY owing to the low base and ramp-up of recently acquired Sanghi plantsWeak pricing across markets drove down NSR by INR 394/MT QoQ (-7%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Ambuja Cement, Havells India, Dabur, ACC

<ul><li>Growth tapers after six consecutive quarters of robust show: We estimate cement demand cooled off to ~7% YoY in Q3FY24, after delivering ~9-16% growth rate (average 12%) in the preceding six quarters</li><li>While demand remained strong in Oct, it slipped off in Nov/Dec—attributable to multiple reasons: elections in four states, flooding in the southern region, sand issues in certain states, and festivals</li><li>Thus, as against general expectations of demand firming up post-monsoon by ~10-15% QoQ, cement sales recovered a modest 4% QoQ, leading to demand tapering.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Growth tapers after six consecutive quarters of robust show: We estimate cement demand cooled off to ~7% YoY in Q3FY24, after delivering ~9-16% growth rate (average 12%) in the preceding six quartersWhile demand remained strong in Oct, it slipped off in Nov/Dec—attributable to multiple reasons: elections in four states, flooding in the southern region, sand issues in certain states, and festivalsThus, as against general expectations of demand firming up post-monsoon by ~10-15% QoQ, cement sales recovered a modest 4% QoQ, leading to demand tapering.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Industry Margin Surges to a Nine-Quarter High

India

Orient Cement Limited manufactures and distributes cement.

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Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN)

Cement (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Demand Contracts and Pricing Slip Further in Q2

Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in...

HDFC Securities

Cement (Q1FY25 Results Preview): Weak Pricing Continues to Offset Cost Gains

Demand growth slows in Q1FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during the general elections in April and May has adversely impacted cement...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Ambuja Cement, Havells India, Dabur, ACC

During Q4FY24, consolidated volumes rose 17% YoY owing to the low base and ramp-up of recently acquired Sanghi plants. Weak pricing across markets...

HDFC Securities

Cement (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Industry Margin Surges to a Nine-Quarter High

We estimate cement demand cooled off to ~7% YoY in Q3FY24, after delivering ~9-16% growth rate (average 12%) in the preceding six quarters

HDFC Securities

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