Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.</li>
<li>2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).</li>
<li>In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  </li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.
2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).
In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  


Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a> recorded 13% YoY revenue growth to ¥120B in Q1FY24, driven by 12% YoY growth in product revenue. Royalty revenue grew 14% YoY.</li>
<li>Revenue from Opdivo grew 11% YoY to ¥37.8B, due to expanded use in treatments for gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, urothelial carcinoma, etc. Revenue from Forxiga grew 34% YoY to ¥17.5B.</li>
<li>For FY24, Ono continues to expect revenue growth of 6% to ¥475B. Operating and net profits are expected to increase 8% and 2% to ¥153B and ¥115B, respectively, for FY24.</li>
</ul>



Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) recorded 13% YoY revenue growth to ¥120B in Q1FY24, driven by 12% YoY growth in product revenue. Royalty revenue grew 14% YoY.
Revenue from Opdivo grew 11% YoY to ¥37.8B, due to expanded use in treatments for gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, urothelial carcinoma, etc. Revenue from Forxiga grew 34% YoY to ¥17.5B.
For FY24, Ono continues to expect revenue growth of 6% to ¥475B. Operating and net profits are expected to increase 8% and 2% to ¥153B and ¥115B, respectively, for FY24.


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Mixed Q1 Result; Guidance Reiterated; Buyback Plan Announced

SK Biopharmaceuticals   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 1Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a> recorded Xcopri U.S. revenue of KRW53.9B, up 70% YoY and 8% QoQ. Xcopri growth is expected to accelerate in US in H2.</li>
<li>The company’s operating loss narrowed to KRW23B in 1Q23, recording the lowest level excluding the one-off sales, compared with operating loss of KRW45B in 4Q22 and KRW37B in 1Q22.</li>
<li>The company is looking for Xcopri revenue of KRW300B in 2023. With stable cash generation and expansion into three new modalities, SKBP aims to become a $15B company by 2026.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q23, SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) recorded Xcopri U.S. revenue of KRW53.9B, up 70% YoY and 8% QoQ. Xcopri growth is expected to accelerate in US in H2.
The company’s operating loss narrowed to KRW23B in 1Q23, recording the lowest level excluding the one-off sales, compared with operating loss of KRW45B in 4Q22 and KRW37B in 1Q22.
The company is looking for Xcopri revenue of KRW300B in 2023. With stable cash generation and expansion into three new modalities, SKBP aims to become a $15B company by 2026.


SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Starts 2023 on Strong Note; Unveils New Mid to Long-Term Strategy

<ul>
<li>In FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.</li>
<li>For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.</li>
</ul>


In FY23, Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.
For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.
Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

Japan

ONO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company mainly researches and develops prescription drugs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

In 1H23, revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with 1H22. 2023 guidance calls for a 12% YoY revenue...

Tina Banerjee