Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a> is reporting decelerating revenue from its flagship drug, Opdivo. During H1FY25, domestic revenue from Opdivo decreased 17% YoY to ¥62.6B.</li>
<li>Opdivo will start to lose patent protection starting from 2028. Prolific commercialization of these new drugs will remain crucial for Ono riding the patent cliff successfully.</li>
<li>Ono shares plunged 36% over the last one year to trade at attractive valuation. In absence of any near-term growth catalyst, the shares are not expected to see much upside.</li>
</ul>



Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) is reporting decelerating revenue from its flagship drug, Opdivo. During H1FY25, domestic revenue from Opdivo decreased 17% YoY to ¥62.6B.
Opdivo will start to lose patent protection starting from 2028. Prolific commercialization of these new drugs will remain crucial for Ono riding the patent cliff successfully.
Ono shares plunged 36% over the last one year to trade at attractive valuation. In absence of any near-term growth catalyst, the shares are not expected to see much upside.


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Struggle Continues with Opdivo; Competition and Price Cuts Loom Large

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a> revenue dropped 23% to ¥26B during 9MFY25, dragged by lower contractual payments. With higher R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses, the company reported operating loss of ¥754M.</li>
<li>FY25 Guidance has been revised downwards with revised sales now stands at ¥39B. While product sales remain largely on track, income from contractual payment was revised downward.</li>
<li>The heavy dependence on one major product and no major product launch lined up anytime soon poses as a negative on the company’s prospects in near future.</li>
</ul>



Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP) revenue dropped 23% to ¥26B during 9MFY25, dragged by lower contractual payments. With higher R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses, the company reported operating loss of ¥754M.
FY25 Guidance has been revised downwards with revised sales now stands at ¥39B. While product sales remain largely on track, income from contractual payment was revised downward.
The heavy dependence on one major product and no major product launch lined up anytime soon poses as a negative on the company’s prospects in near future.


JCR Pharmaceutical (4552 JP): Sluggish 9MFY25 Performance, Guidance Revised Downward

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deciphera-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26289:1" rel="noopener">Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH US)</a> for $25.60/share in cash through a tender offer. The total equity value of the acquisition is approximately $2.4B.</li>
<li>Ono is expected to reap the benefit of Deciphera acquisition earliest from FY27. In the short-run, the company’s major problem of loss of revenue will not be addressed.</li>
<li>Ono needs to stretch its balance sheet to fund Deciphera acquisition. The acquisition will be earnings dilutive for Ono. Pricey valuation of the deal is another deterrent.</li>
</ul>



Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) is acquiring Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH US) for $25.60/share in cash through a tender offer. The total equity value of the acquisition is approximately $2.4B.
Ono is expected to reap the benefit of Deciphera acquisition earliest from FY27. In the short-run, the company’s major problem of loss of revenue will not be addressed.
Ono needs to stretch its balance sheet to fund Deciphera acquisition. The acquisition will be earnings dilutive for Ono. Pricey valuation of the deal is another deterrent.


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Deciphera Acquisition Will Not Bring Immediate Respite

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Celltrion received FDA approval for Omlyclo, the first and only biosimilar designated as interchangeable with Xolair. Ono Pharmaceutical in-licensed drug candidate for polycythemia vera from Ionis Pharmaceuticals.</li>
<li>Sun Pharmaceutical will acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics for an upfront cash payment of $4.10 per share. Syngene is acquiring Emergent’s biologics facility in Baltimore for $36.5M.</li>
<li>Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 85.6% stake in in Amplitude Surgical for €257M. Sichuan Kelun received China approval for sacituzumab tirumotecan for certain types of non-small cell lung cancer.</li>
</ul>


Celltrion received FDA approval for Omlyclo, the first and only biosimilar designated as interchangeable with Xolair. Ono Pharmaceutical in-licensed drug candidate for polycythemia vera from Ionis Pharmaceuticals.
Sun Pharmaceutical will acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics for an upfront cash payment of $4.10 per share. Syngene is acquiring Emergent’s biologics facility in Baltimore for $36.5M.
Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 85.6% stake in in Amplitude Surgical for €257M. Sichuan Kelun received China approval for sacituzumab tirumotecan for certain types of non-small cell lung cancer.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 16)- Celltrion, Ono Pharma, Sun Pharma, Syngene, Zydus, Sichuan Kelun

Japan

ONO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company mainly researches and develops prescription drugs.

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Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)