Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We asked Keyence about the impact of COVID-19 on their business. They were not terribly helpful.</p><ul>
<li>Management expects market conditions to revert to pre-COVID normal as the economy recovers. They see no material change in their business mix, growth drivers or competition. </li>
<li>Their business in China began to recover in the three months to June. Sales in all other regions were down, although activity has picked up recently with the easing of travel restrictions.</li>
<li>As usual, they provided no guidance. </li>
</ul><p>The share price is sticking near the all-time high reached a month ago. Valuations suggest profit taking is in order. So do economic factors. It took three years for operating profit to recover from the Lehman Shock.</p>

We asked Keyence about the impact of COVID-19 on their business. They were not terribly helpful.
Management expects market conditions to revert to pre-COVID normal as the economy recovers. They see no material change in their business mix, growth drivers or competition. 
Their business in China began to recover in the three months to June. Sales in all other regions were down, although activity has picked up recently with the easing of travel restrictions.
As usual, they provided no guidance. 
The share price is sticking near the all-time high reached a month ago. Valuations suggest profit taking is in order. So do economic factors. It took three years for operating profit to recover from the Lehman Shock.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/490/original/2020-07-29_05-46-56.png?1595972235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148490"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/491/original/2020-07-29_05-47-39.png?1595972270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148491"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>OUTLIERS</strong> - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and the FA business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>.  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/493/original/2020-07-29_06-48-44.png?1595972935" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148493"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/494/original/2020-07-29_06-49-07.png?1595972973" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148494"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>55 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 31%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score</strong>: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.8</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and the FA business of Fanuc (6954 JP).  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS55 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 31%
 23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/661/original/2020-04-26_07-20-46.png?1587853286" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129661"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE WEDGE</strong> - Both Japanese equities and the $/¥ exchange rate have traded in a narrow range over the last two weeks. Undeterred, the Bank of Japan intervened through ETF purchases three times last week. In total, since the low of March 16th, the central bank has bought ETFs equivalent to 3.5% of market value, and have supported a 15% 29-day rally. As the markets consolidate in anticipation of the impending 'rendezvous with reality' in the form of quarterly earnings, the resolution of the 'wedge' formations above will be to the downside.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/662/original/2020-04-26_07-39-05.png?1587854366" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129662"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CANARIES</strong> - As we noted in Friday's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-revisions-results-23rd-april-getting-worse-rapidly-obics-tgas-canon-omron" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38697" rel="noopener">Results Review</a>, interim forecasts are a useful 'canary' and, with some help from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, our composite Score is heading lower rapidly. A growing number of companies lacking Fanuc's candour are refusing to make initial full-year or interim forecasts this year leaving the market, and the sell-side, to 'fly blind'. The lack of foresight is resulting in a degree of misplaced optimism, as amply demonstrated by Friday's 7.5% gain in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a> for 'beating' a six-month-old forecast for a mostly pre-COVID-19 year.     </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/665/original/File%202020-04-26%205%2006%2033.jpeg?1587856452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129665"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/666/original/File%202020-04-26%205%2007%2018.jpeg?1587856466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129666"></figure><p><strong>PERSISTENCE</strong> - Japan is still 'behind' the world and ahead of the rest of Asia in COVID-19 metrics - Marco Piani's excellent global timeline chart is attached as an Appendix in the DETAIL below. The number of confirmed new cases is persistent at around 300, of which, alarmingly, an increasing number are outside Tokyo, while the rolling 3-day number of deaths is moving more towards Europe than the rest of Asia. The northern island of Hokkaido which saw some of the earliest case clusters in Japan is experiencing a second wave of infections.  Nishimura, the Cabinet minister in charge of the response to COVID-19, is now in quarantine at home after one of his aides tested positive. Sunday has brought some welcome good news - the nationwide daily case count has declined to 140. <strong>Nevertheless, with just ten days until the proposed end of the states of emergency, at least one extension is likely, possibly until the end of May. Such a declaration is not yet discounted in the equity market.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/667/original/IMG_1515.jpg?1587857128" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129667"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>PREVALENCE</strong> - Although a lack of widespread testing biases this data, the detected rates of infection by age cohort (descending in the chart above) and sex (male blue/female red) reveal the consequences of Japan's version of social distancing. The highest rates of infection are amongst those that have to commute or come into contact with others, men between the ages of 20 and 50 and childless women in their twenties, many of whom work in hospitals or check-out counters. 10% of all COVID-19 cases in Japan are medical staff or patients who were infected nosocomially.  Testing is still a major bottleneck due to excessive fax-centric bureaucracy and reliance on only non-private institutions. Only 6,000 tests are being carried out every day, two-thirds of total capacity, and the results take one week to obtain. </p><p><strong>PLEASE DIE AT HOME</strong> - A number of those infected with COVID-19 who have been told to 'stay home' as the hospitals are full are now dying in situ or on the street. Some local governments are being forced to change tack. All newly-confirmed patients that cannot be accommodated in hospitals are to be moved to hotels with medical staff in attendance. However, there is now a severe shortage of such personnel. Hospitals in Tokyo are still turning away suspected COVID-19 patients. Aichi prefecture has resorted to offering 'subsidies' of up to ¥4 million to hospitals for accepting new patients.</p><p><strong>ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR</strong> - Japan is not immune to anti-social behaviour at the worst of times. Cars with license plates from other prefectures have been vandalised when parked or tailgated or verbally-abused on the road. Child care facilities are turning away children of hospital staff for fear they may already be asymptomatic carriers, prompting many medical workers to quit their jobs. Some companies are requiring employees who are working from home to be monitored by video during working hours to ensure they are at their desks and not helping out with the housework.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/670/original/title_1.jpg?1587859428" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129670"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Sharp</div><p><strong>ABE-'NO-MASKS'</strong><strong>AND THE SHARP LOTTERY</strong> - The government has had to recall the small washable cloth masks that PM Abe planned to distribute two of per household due to mould, stains and insects being found in up to one-third of early batches. The roll-out of these much-criticised 'Abe masks' will be further delayed. Meanwhile, demand for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp (6753 JP)</a>'s newly-manufactured higher quality single-use masks so overwhelmed the company's website, that Sharp has decided to hold a lottery as a way of rationing demand.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/725/original/2020-04-26_15-42-04.png?1587883347" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129725"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source ♦ Japan Analytics</div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made on Friday by larger-cap companies.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for Friday's 28 results announcements was 13:1:14, and the net change in Results Score was -1. For the 47 revisions/forecasts, the split was 21:2:24 but the net change in Revision Score totalled -170. Of the eighteen companies declaring full-year results, only half made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. As we shall see below the 'worst' forecasts were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amano-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8135:1" rel="noopener">Amano (6436 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso (6902 JP)</a> (see chart above). Large=caps with improved Revisions Scores were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mochida-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3655:1" rel="noopener">Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/okinawa-cellular-telephone" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6517:1" rel="noopener">Okinawa Cellular Telephone (9436 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8897:1" rel="noopener">Acom (8572 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi (4507 JP)</a> and two other companies raised dividends; none cut their payouts.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE WEDGE - Both Japanese equities and the $/¥ exchange rate have traded in a narrow range over the last two weeks. Undeterred, the Bank of Japan intervened through ETF purchases three times last week. In total, since the low of March 16th, the central bank has bought ETFs equivalent to 3.5% of market value, and have supported a 15% 29-day rally. As the markets consolidate in anticipation of the impending 'rendezvous with reality' in the form of quarterly earnings, the resolution of the 'wedge' formations above will be to the downside.Source • Japan AnalyticsCANARIES - As we noted in Friday's Results Review, interim forecasts are a useful 'canary' and, with some help from Fanuc (6954 JP), our composite Score is heading lower rapidly. A growing number of companies lacking Fanuc's candour are refusing to make initial full-year or interim forecasts this year leaving the market, and the sell-side, to 'fly blind'. The lack of foresight is resulting in a degree of misplaced optimism, as amply demonstrated by Friday's 7.5% gain in Omron (6645 JP) for 'beating' a six-month-old forecast for a mostly pre-COVID-19 year.     PERSISTENCE - Japan is still 'behind' the world and ahead of the rest of Asia in COVID-19 metrics - Marco Piani's excellent global timeline chart is attached as an Appendix in the DETAIL below. The number of confirmed new cases is persistent at around 300, of which, alarmingly, an increasing number are outside Tokyo, while the rolling 3-day number of deaths is moving more towards Europe than the rest of Asia. The northern island of Hokkaido which saw some of the earliest case clusters in Japan is experiencing a second wave of infections.  Nishimura, the Cabinet minister in charge of the response to COVID-19, is now in quarantine at home after one of his aides tested positive. Sunday has brought some welcome good news - the nationwide daily case count has declined to 140. Nevertheless, with just ten days until the proposed end of the states of emergency, at least one extension is likely, possibly until the end of May. Such a declaration is not yet discounted in the equity market.Source • NHKPREVALENCE - Although a lack of widespread testing biases this data, the detected rates of infection by age cohort (descending in the chart above) and sex (male blue/female red) reveal the consequences of Japan's version of social distancing. The highest rates of infection are amongst those that have to commute or come into contact with others, men between the ages of 20 and 50 and childless women in their twenties, many of whom work in hospitals or check-out counters. 10% of all COVID-19 cases in Japan are medical staff or patients who were infected nosocomially.  Testing is still a major bottleneck due to excessive fax-centric bureaucracy and reliance on only non-private institutions. Only 6,000 tests are being carried out every day, two-thirds of total capacity, and the results take one week to obtain. PLEASE DIE AT HOME - A number of those infected with COVID-19 who have been told to 'stay home' as the hospitals are full are now dying in situ or on the street. Some local governments are being forced to change tack. All newly-confirmed patients that cannot be accommodated in hospitals are to be moved to hotels with medical staff in attendance. However, there is now a severe shortage of such personnel. Hospitals in Tokyo are still turning away suspected COVID-19 patients. Aichi prefecture has resorted to offering 'subsidies' of up to ¥4 million to hospitals for accepting new patients.ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR - Japan is not immune to anti-social behaviour at the worst of times. Cars with license plates from other prefectures have been vandalised when parked or tailgated or verbally-abused on the road. Child care facilities are turning away children of hospital staff for fear they may already be asymptomatic carriers, prompting many medical workers to quit their jobs. Some companies are requiring employees who are working from home to be monitored by video during working hours to ensure they are at their desks and not helping out with the housework.Source • SharpABE-'NO-MASKS'AND THE SHARP LOTTERY - The government has had to recall the small washable cloth masks that PM Abe planned to distribute two of per household due to mould, stains and insects being found in up to one-third of early batches. The roll-out of these much-criticised 'Abe masks' will be further delayed. Meanwhile, demand for Sharp (6753 JP)'s newly-manufactured higher quality single-use masks so overwhelmed the company's website, that Sharp has decided to hold a lottery as a way of rationing demand.Source ♦ Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made on Friday by larger-cap companies.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for Friday's 28 results announcements was 13:1:14, and the net change in Results Score was -1. For the 47 revisions/forecasts, the split was 21:2:24 but the net change in Revision Score totalled -170. Of the eighteen companies declaring full-year results, only half made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. As we shall see below the 'worst' forecasts were from Fanuc (6954 JP), Amano (6436 JP), ANA (9202 JP), and Denso (6902 JP) (see chart above). Large=caps with improved Revisions Scores were Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP), Okinawa Cellular Telephone (9436 JP) and Acom (8572 JP). Shionogi (4507 JP) and two other companies raised dividends; none cut their payouts.

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE 26th April - Thin End of the Wedge

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/414/original/2020-04-24_05-17-46.png?1587673330" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129414"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/415/original/2020-04-24_05-22-47.png?1587673388" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129415"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • IHS Markit/au Jibun Bank, Cabinet Office</div><p><strong>"GETTING WORSE RAPIDLY"</strong> - According to Japan's Cabinet Office in language that has not been used since May 2009, "the Japanese economy is getting worse rapidly in an extremely severe situation" and has dropped the word "recovering" for the first time in the Abenomics era. The IHS Markit Composite PMI data (sponsored by au Jibun Bank) shown above is already below the trough of 2009 and expectations suggest that the manufacturing output indicator will follow Services into the "20s" next month. The Bank of Japan is reported to be discussing 'unlimited' purchases of fixed income securities.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/417/original/IMG_1497.jpg?1587675446" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129417"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>SIGNALLING</strong> - COVID-19 daily case counts remain above 300 and 100, respectively, although these are lagging indicators given that it takes up to one week to get a test result due to a lack of personnel and excessively fax-centric bureaucratic processes.  The central and local governments are stepping up their rhetoric to encourage more social distancing, especially over the upcoming Golden Week national holidays. They have asked companies to 'cease operations' from tomorrow until 6th May. Parking lots at tourist attractions are being closed, and flower buds are being culled in parks and nature reserves. The closure of national highway routes is also being discussed. Many pachinko parlours are defying the government's request to cease operations. They may now be subjected to 'naming and shaming' - a tactic complicated by the over-representation of Korean ethnic minorities in the industry.<strong> Japan's current strategy risks falling between its twin objectives of limiting the damage to the economy while avoiding 'overshoot' in the medical system. We continue to expect the 'states of emergency' to be extended beyond 6th May.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/418/original/2020-04-23_07-03-24.png?1587676688" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129418"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTERIM FORECASTS</strong> - Many companies issue forecasts for the interim as well as the annual period ahead. The former forecasts are often prepared and reviewed at a lower 'level' in the company than the latter, which are seen as 'targets' set by the CEO. As a result and as seen last year, the interim forecasts provide better forward guidance, a pattern that is beginning to repeat this year as seen in our scoring above. </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 16 results was 9:0:7; and for the 17 revisions/forecasts, the split was 12:0:5, with three of the twelve 'positives' being in the Information Technology Sector. Of the eleven companies reporting annual results, only five made a forecast for the current year. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a></strong>became the largest company so far by market cap to withdraw its year-end forecasts. One company withdrew its dividend forecast; two increased their payouts, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nok-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2980:1" rel="noopener">NOK (7240 JP)</a> reduced.</p>

Source • IHS Markit/au Jibun Bank, Cabinet Office"GETTING WORSE RAPIDLY" - According to Japan's Cabinet Office in language that has not been used since May 2009, "the Japanese economy is getting worse rapidly in an extremely severe situation" and has dropped the word "recovering" for the first time in the Abenomics era. The IHS Markit Composite PMI data (sponsored by au Jibun Bank) shown above is already below the trough of 2009 and expectations suggest that the manufacturing output indicator will follow Services into the "20s" next month. The Bank of Japan is reported to be discussing 'unlimited' purchases of fixed income securities.  Source • NHKSIGNALLING - COVID-19 daily case counts remain above 300 and 100, respectively, although these are lagging indicators given that it takes up to one week to get a test result due to a lack of personnel and excessively fax-centric bureaucratic processes.  The central and local governments are stepping up their rhetoric to encourage more social distancing, especially over the upcoming Golden Week national holidays. They have asked companies to 'cease operations' from tomorrow until 6th May. Parking lots at tourist attractions are being closed, and flower buds are being culled in parks and nature reserves. The closure of national highway routes is also being discussed. Many pachinko parlours are defying the government's request to cease operations. They may now be subjected to 'naming and shaming' - a tactic complicated by the over-representation of Korean ethnic minorities in the industry. Japan's current strategy risks falling between its twin objectives of limiting the damage to the economy while avoiding 'overshoot' in the medical system. We continue to expect the 'states of emergency' to be extended beyond 6th May.Source • Japan AnalyticsINTERIM FORECASTS - Many companies issue forecasts for the interim as well as the annual period ahead. The former forecasts are often prepared and reviewed at a lower 'level' in the company than the latter, which are seen as 'targets' set by the CEO. As a result and as seen last year, the interim forecasts provide better forward guidance, a pattern that is beginning to repeat this year as seen in our scoring above. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 16 results was 9:0:7; and for the 17 revisions/forecasts, the split was 12:0:5, with three of the twelve 'positives' being in the Information Technology Sector. Of the eleven companies reporting annual results, only five made a forecast for the current year. Canon (7751 JP)became the largest company so far by market cap to withdraw its year-end forecasts. One company withdrew its dividend forecast; two increased their payouts, while NOK (7240 JP) reduced.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 23rd April - "Getting Worse Rapidly" + OBICs, TGas, Canon, Omron

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<p>Omron reported 4Q results that were down 20% and 26% YoY at the revenue and OP lines respectively, largely due to the sale of its Automotive Electronic Components (AEC) unit to Nidec. On a like for like basis results were still down 7% and 17% respectively with the deterioration in profitability exacerbated due to the continued weakness in its Electronic and Mechanical Components (EMC) business. The biggest concern though is the deterioration in sales in China, and if this is a precursor of what is to come in other regions then there is substantial risk to the FA sector overall.</p>

Omron reported 4Q results that were down 20% and 26% YoY at the revenue and OP lines respectively, largely due to the sale of its Automotive Electronic Components (AEC) unit to Nidec. On a like for like basis results were still down 7% and 17% respectively with the deterioration in profitability exacerbated due to the continued weakness in its Electronic and Mechanical Components (EMC) business. The biggest concern though is the deterioration in sales in China, and if this is a precursor of what is to come in other regions then there is substantial risk to the FA sector overall.

Omron – Results Beat but China Sales Trend Is the COVID Concern

Japan

OMRON Corporation manufactures electronic components, equipment and systems used for factory automation. The Company provides products and services in a variety of fields including industrial automation, electronic components, automotive electronics, social systems such as ticket gate machines and traffic control, and healthcare.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Omron Corp (6645 JP)

Keyence (6861 JP): Back to the Future?

xxx xxx Keyence expects market conditions to revert to normal as the economy recovers.But that wouldn’t put a time frame on that and, since it’s...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

OUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE 26th April - Thin End of the Wedge

THE WEDGE - Both Japanese equities and the $/¥ exchange rate have traded in a narrow range over the last two weeks. Undeterred, the Bank of Japan...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 23rd April - "Getting Worse Rapidly" + OBICs, TGas, Canon, Omron

"GETTING WORSE RAPIDLY" - According to Japan's Cabinet Office in language that has not been used since May 2009, "the Japanese economy is getting...

Campbell Gunn

Omron – Results Beat but China Sales Trend Is the COVID Concern

Omron reported 4Q results that were down 20% and 26% YoY at the revenue and OP lines respectively, largely due to the sale of its Automotive...

Mio Kato

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