Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9014:1" rel="noopener">Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT)</a> , one of Shimano's top customers, is reportedly having a production issue and can only sort it out by the end of this year. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano Inc (7309 JP)</a> is no longer Japan-centric but a global company with customers all over the world. </li>
<li>Low valuation gives an illusion that it is cheap historically but expects a bumpy road ahead.</li>
</ul>



Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT) , one of Shimano's top customers, is reportedly having a production issue and can only sort it out by the end of this year. 

Shimano Inc (7309 JP) is no longer Japan-centric but a global company with customers all over the world. 
Low valuation gives an illusion that it is cheap historically but expects a bumpy road ahead.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a> just sold two-thirds of its stake in subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC Inc (4483 JP)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> for ¥112bn - pretty good for a ¥61bn marketcap.</li>
<li>This is the payday for those who have been long NK as a proxy for JMDC and possibly short JMDC against it. Now the shape of the company is different.</li>
<li>A closer look at the pro-forma financial profile is warranted. It's a lot of money. BUT... if you look today and buy today you do NOT get the special div!
</li>
</ul>



Noritsu Koki (7744 JP) just sold two-thirds of its stake in subsidiary JMDC Inc (4483 JP) to Omron Corp (6645 JP) for ¥112bn - pretty good for a ¥61bn marketcap.
This is the payday for those who have been long NK as a proxy for JMDC and possibly short JMDC against it. Now the shape of the company is different.
A closer look at the pro-forma financial profile is warranted. It's a lot of money. BUT... if you look today and buy today you do NOT get the special div!



Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.</li>
<li>It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. </li>
<li>Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.</li>
</ul>


After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.
It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. 
Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

<ul>
<li>Omron reported its 3QFY22 results on 28th January which saw revenues of ¥190.9bn (+5.8% QoQ, +13.4% YoY) and OP of ¥19.2bn. </li>
<li>The reported results were 0.6% and 17.1% lower than the consensus estimates for revenue and OP respectively. </li>
<li>This weakness also lead to a downgrade in guidance the size of which was a touch surprising.</li>
</ul>


Omron reported its 3QFY22 results on 28th January which saw revenues of ¥190.9bn (+5.8% QoQ, +13.4% YoY) and OP of ¥19.2bn. 
The reported results were 0.6% and 17.1% lower than the consensus estimates for revenue and OP respectively. 
This weakness also lead to a downgrade in guidance the size of which was a touch surprising.


Omron – Downgrade on Normalising Profitability

Keyence has been our boring top pick within the factory automation sector for some time and has boringly and consistently outperformed peers. We still consider it the highest quality name within the sector but given valuations, we are reluctantly disembarking here.

Keyence has been our boring top pick within the factory automation sector for some time and has boringly and consistently outperformed peers. We still consider it the highest quality name within the sector but given valuations, we are reluctantly disembarking here.

Keyence – Time to Step Off and Some Warning Signs for Markets

Japan

OMRON Corporation manufactures electronic components, equipment and systems used for factory automation. The Company provides products and services in a variety of fields including industrial automation, electronic components, automotive electronics, social systems such as ticket gate machines and traffic control, and healthcare.

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Omron Corp (6645 JP)

Shimano (7309): Bumpy

China lockdown also impacts Shimano negatively. When PE has dropped more than the share price it is followed by a sideways movement of the share...

Henry Soediarko

Noritsu Koki (7744) - PAAAAYDAAAAY!

Noritsu Koki (7744) just got paid. They got ¥112bn for 2/3 of their stake in JMDC (4483), hold 15.7% still, now have net cash, and ongoing...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off. It is now...

Mio Kato

Omron – Downgrade on Normalising Profitability

Omron's reported results were 0.6% and 17.1% lower than consensus estimates for revenue and OP respectively. This weakness lead to a downgrade in...

Mio Kato

Keyence – Time to Step Off and Some Warning Signs for Markets

Keyence has been our top pick in the FA sector and has outperformed peers consistently but while we still consider it the highest quality name...

Mio Kato

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