European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders of Cambridge (UK)-based  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abcam-plc-fdbd66c6-5b3f-46b0-9e33-c7c79214544f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38641:1" rel="noopener">Abcam (ABCM US)</a> followed Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations and approved (&gt;84%) the scheme resolutions at both the Court Meeting and the GM.</li>
<li>The $24/share cash offer represents 10x EV/Fwd Revenue, 25x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danaher-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8243:1" rel="noopener">Danaher Corp (DHR US)</a> and Abcam have guided that the transaction is expected to close by mid-2024.</li>
<li>Spread is 3.21%/6.21% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 May). From the current levels, I see a balanced risk/reward.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders of Cambridge (UK)-based  Abcam (ABCM US) followed Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations and approved (&gt;84%) the scheme resolutions at both the Court Meeting and the GM.
The $24/share cash offer represents 10x EV/Fwd Revenue, 25x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. Danaher Corp (DHR US) and Abcam have guided that the transaction is expected to close by mid-2024.
Spread is 3.21%/6.21% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 May). From the current levels, I see a balanced risk/reward.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>If you are still long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokuhoku-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19006:1" rel="noopener">Financial Group (8377 JP)</a> from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness</li>
<li>Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI (9433 JP)</a> shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
</ul>


If you are still long the Financial Group (8377 JP) from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness
Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Kyocera (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI (9433 JP) shares (after an AGM disaster).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

<ul>
<li>The $26.00/share cash offer of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thermo-fisher-scientific-inc-49322cfa-b354-4c3d-ac3b-f4e91aead32b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26834:1" rel="noopener">Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO UN)</a> for Swedish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olink-holding-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36991:1" rel="noopener">Olink Holding (OLK US)</a> started on 31 October. The 74% premium reflects that high-growth, positive adjusted EBITDA targets are rare.</li>
<li>The offer values Olink at ~12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue vs. 6.4x median of peers. Irrevocables total 66%, but the minimum acceptance condition requires acceptances from a high 70.6% of float. </li>
<li>Barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as regulatory action, I anticipate the deal closing and set my TP at $26/share. Gross spread is 4.81%.</li>
</ul>


The $26.00/share cash offer of Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO UN) for Swedish Olink Holding (OLK US) started on 31 October. The 74% premium reflects that high-growth, positive adjusted EBITDA targets are rare.
The offer values Olink at ~12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue vs. 6.4x median of peers. Irrevocables total 66%, but the minimum acceptance condition requires acceptances from a high 70.6% of float. 
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as regulatory action, I anticipate the deal closing and set my TP at $26/share. Gross spread is 4.81%.


Sweden

Olink Holding AB operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on discovery and development protein biomarker based on a flexible and scalable technology platform for disease treatment and prevention that takes into account individual variability in genes, environment, and lifestyle for each person. Olink Holding serves customers worldwide.

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Olink Holding (OLK US)

Danaher/Abcam: Balanced Risk/Return

Shareholders of Abcam approve scheme resolutions, with a $24/share cash offer from Danaher Corp expected to close mid-2024. Balanced risk/reward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Start of Tender Offer

Thermo Fisher Scientific offers $26/share for Olink Holding, 12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue, higher than peers, 74% premium due to rare high-growth,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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Danaher/Abcam: Balanced Risk/Return

​Shareholders of Abcam approve scheme resolutions, with a $24/share cash offer from Danaher Corp expected to close mid-2024. Balanced risk/reward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Start of Tender Offer

​Thermo Fisher Scientific offers $26/share for Olink Holding, 12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue, higher than peers, 74% premium due to rare high-growth,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Shareholders of Abcam approve scheme resolutions, with a $24/share cash offer from Danaher Corp expected to close mid-2024. Balanced risk/reward...

Thermo Fisher Scientific offers $26/share for Olink Holding, 12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue, higher than peers, 74% premium due to rare high-growth,...