External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and margin outperformance. Labour efficiency has recovered to 90-95% after hitting a trough at 70% in April-21. The company expects commodity price impact to be minimal, given the escalation clauses in much of the order book. The company has guided for 20-25% topline growth, 12-12.5% margin and INR 60-70bn order inflow for FY22. We maintain BUY on the stock, given low leverage (net D/E of ~0.1x) and comfortable liquidity position.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and margin outperformance. Labour efficiency has recovered to 90-95% after hitting a trough at 70% in April-21. The company expects commodity price impact to be minimal, given the escalation clauses in much of the order book. The company has guided for 20-25% topline growth, 12-12.5% margin and INR 60-70bn order inflow for FY22. We maintain BUY on the stock, given low leverage (net D/E of ~0.1x) and comfortable liquidity position.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Oil India, Ashoka Buildcon

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s <em>Int’l Compass </em>report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.</p>

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>Asia Index Private Limited has announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> for the upcoming review in June. The rebalance will be effective from the open on 21 June and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on 18 June.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> will be included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> was the highest ranking non-constituent but the Index Committee went with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> to reduce the underweight of the Materials sector in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> vs the BSE All Cap index.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> was deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> in December and makes its way back into the index after a big rally while out of the index.</p><p>Passive funds will need to buy 0.33 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> and sell 1.63 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a>. The actual impact will be higher since the delivery volumes on both stocks are much lower, especially on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a>. </p>

Asia Index Private Limited has announced the changes to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) for the upcoming review in June. The rebalance will be effective from the open on 21 June and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on 18 June.Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) will be included in the index replacing Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN).Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) was the highest ranking non-constituent but the Index Committee went with Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) to reduce the underweight of the Materials sector in the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) vs the BSE All Cap index.Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) was deleted from the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) in December and makes its way back into the index after a big rally while out of the index.Passive funds will need to buy 0.33 days of ADV on Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) and sell 1.63 days of ADV on Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN). The actual impact will be higher since the delivery volumes on both stocks are much lower, especially on Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN). 

Sensex Index Rebalance: Tata Steel IN, ONGC OUT

<div><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.</p></div><div>
<p>The June review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 November to 30 April to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is made 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.</p>
<p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a> as a high probability deletion, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> holds the edge over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> as an index inclusion.</p>
<p>There will be between 3-6 days of average delivery volume to trade from passive funds on the stocks that are included into and deleted from the index.</p>
</div>

The S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.
The June review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 November to 30 April to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is made 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
We see Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) as a high probability deletion, while Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) holds the edge over Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) as an index inclusion.
There will be between 3-6 days of average delivery volume to trade from passive funds on the stocks that are included into and deleted from the index.


Sensex June21 Index Rebalance Preview: Index Committee Has a Decision to Make

<p>Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.</p>

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

India

Oil India Ltd. explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in India and internationally. The Company is also involved in the transportation of crude oil, production of liquefied petroleum gas, pipeline services, as well as various exploration and production related services.

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Oil India Ltd (OINL IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Oil India, Ashoka Buildcon

Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and...

HDFC Securities

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

Sensex Index Rebalance: Tata Steel IN, ONGC OUT

Tata Steel will replace ONGC in the Sensex after the close of trading on 18 June. Tata Steel is back in the index after a 6 month break. Rebalance...

Brian Freitas

Sensex June21 Index Rebalance Preview: Index Committee Has a Decision to Make

ONGC is a high probability deletion from the Sensex at the June review. The index committee needs to decide whether to include Wipro or Tata Steel....

Brian Freitas

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

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