Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and margin outperformance. Labour efficiency has recovered to 90-95% after hitting a trough at 70% in April-21. The company expects commodity price impact to be minimal, given the escalation clauses in much of the order book. The company has guided for 20-25% topline growth, 12-12.5% margin and INR 60-70bn order inflow for FY22. We maintain BUY on the stock, given low leverage (net D/E of ~0.1x) and comfortable liquidity position.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and margin outperformance. Labour efficiency has recovered to 90-95% after hitting a trough at 70% in April-21. The company expects commodity price impact to be minimal, given the escalation clauses in much of the order book. The company has guided for 20-25% topline growth, 12-12.5% margin and INR 60-70bn order inflow for FY22. We maintain BUY on the stock, given low leverage (net D/E of ~0.1x) and comfortable liquidity position.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Oil India, Ashoka Buildcon

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

India

Oil India Ltd. explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in India and internationally. The Company is also involved in the transportation of crude oil, production of liquefied petroleum gas, pipeline services, as well as various exploration and production related services.

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Oil India Ltd (OINL IN)

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Oil India, Ashoka Buildcon

Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Oil India, Ashoka Buildcon

Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and...

HDFC Securities

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

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