CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 172% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 62%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 172% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 62%


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a> disclosed a revised conditional offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-aerospace-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:504:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> at S$0.67, an 11.7% premium to the initial S$0.60 offer.</li>
<li>The Estate (largest shareholder) stated that the previous S$0.60 offer was not compelling. The final offer addresses most of the Estate’s valuation concerns.</li>
<li>The Estate’s view and IFA opinion in the circular (despatched by 23 October) will be crucial to the acceptance rate. They are likely to support the final offer. </li>
</ul>



Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP) disclosed a revised conditional offer from Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at S$0.67, an 11.7% premium to the initial S$0.60 offer.
The Estate (largest shareholder) stated that the previous S$0.60 offer was not compelling. The final offer addresses most of the Estate’s valuation concerns.
The Estate’s view and IFA opinion in the circular (despatched by 23 October) will be crucial to the acceptance rate. They are likely to support the final offer. 


Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Final Offer Could Get the Deal Done

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a> disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-aerospace-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:504:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> at S$0.60, a 21.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on regulatory approval (Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore) and a 50% minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples. However, it may face resistance as it is below the recent high of S$0.615 and Dyna-Mac's improving outlook (S$681 million order book). </li>
</ul>



Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP) disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at S$0.60, a 21.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is conditional on regulatory approval (Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore) and a 50% minimum acceptance condition. 
The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples. However, it may face resistance as it is below the recent high of S$0.615 and Dyna-Mac's improving outlook (S$681 million order book). 


Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Voluntary Conditional Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Western Superconducting Techno / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI500 Index</a>, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.</li>
<li>With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.
With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Shanghai United Imaging Health / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the <em>next</em> largest 500 names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>I currently expect 13 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. </li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
I currently expect 13 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. 


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​500 Dec 23: Massive Baskets, US$2.5bn One-Way

China

Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. provides offshore oil engineering services, including designing, construction, installation, and repair and maintenance services.  The Company's main businesses include oil/gas exploration engineering, subsea pipeline laying, oil/gas field equipment testing and maintenance, as well as pressure container and steel structure manufacturing.

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Offshore Oil Engineering A (600583 CH)

The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 34

We highlight 10 China A stocks that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Final Offer Could Get the Deal Done

The Estate’s view and IFA opinion in the circular (despatched by 23 October) will be crucial to the acceptance rate. They are likely to support the...

Arun George

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Voluntary Conditional Offer

The Lim Estate’s statement notes that Dyna-Mac “is definitely worth more than SGD 0.60 per share. The Estate is not opposed to proposed offers for...

Arun George

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: Massive Baskets, US$2.5bn One-Way

Collectively, the CSI 300 and CSI 500 ADDs could see one-way flows of more than US$2.5bn. However, the flow patterns are complex and it is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 34

We highlight 10 China A stocks that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, seven new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Final Offer Could Get the Deal Done

The Estate’s view and IFA opinion in the circular (despatched by 23 October) will be crucial to the acceptance rate. They are likely to support the...

Arun George

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Voluntary Conditional Offer

The Lim Estate’s statement notes that Dyna-Mac “is definitely worth more than SGD 0.60 per share. The Estate is not opposed to proposed offers for...

Arun George

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​500 Dec 23: Massive Baskets, US$2.5bn One-Way

Collectively, the CSI 300 and CSI 500 ADDs could see one-way flows of more than US$2.5bn. However, the flow patterns are complex and it is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: Massive Baskets, US$2.5bn One-Way