New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed 1H23 result with underlying EBITDA of NZ$38.7m below our expectations of NZ$43.1m</li><li>OCA commented that new sales had been slower than expected, in particular with regards to Awatere in Hamilton</li><li>Despite the below expectation headline results, the mix in the result is solid with strong underlying resale gains supporting annuity EBITDA of NZ$26.0 – up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our expectations</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed 1H23 result with underlying EBITDA of NZ$38.7m below our expectations of NZ$43.1mOCA commented that new sales had been slower than expected, in particular with regards to Awatere in HamiltonDespite the below expectation headline results, the mix in the result is solid with strong underlying resale gains supporting annuity EBITDA of NZ$26.0 – up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our expectations

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday 23 November</li><li>We expect focus to be on care profitability, cost control, cash generation and total debt levels</li><li>For OCA we expect ~NZ$80m of increased net debt in 1H23, primarily driven by the acquisition of two villages in the period</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday 23 NovemberWe expect focus to be on care profitability, cost control, cash generation and total debt levelsFor OCA we expect ~NZ$80m of increased net debt in 1H23, primarily driven by the acquisition of two villages in the period

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Care, Cash, Credit and Costs

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a> has a secular growth story underpinned by ageing population. Australia and New Zealand are projected to have 5.3 million people aged 75 and above by 2062.</li>
<li>Rising interest rate and falling property prices should limit the upside potential of property management companies, like Ryman. New Zealand's house prices are forecast to sink 9% this year.</li>
<li>Ryman’s site of the Moondah mansion in Mt Eliza, near Melbourne central business district is still under litigation.</li>
</ul>



Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) has a secular growth story underpinned by ageing population. Australia and New Zealand are projected to have 5.3 million people aged 75 and above by 2062.
Rising interest rate and falling property prices should limit the upside potential of property management companies, like Ryman. New Zealand's house prices are forecast to sink 9% this year.
Ryman’s site of the Moondah mansion in Mt Eliza, near Melbourne central business district is still under litigation.


Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ): Strong Underlying Growth Story; Current Macro Scenario Limits Upside

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021</p></li><li>COVID pricing buffer continues to shrink</li><li>Significant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run</li></ul>

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021COVID pricing buffer continues to shrinkSignificant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

<ul><li>The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years</li><li>Additional COVID buffer is largely exhausted</li><li>How much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort</li></ul>

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 yearsAdditional COVID buffer is largely exhaustedHow much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed 1H23 result with underlying EBITDA of NZ$38.7m below our expectations of NZ$43.1m; underlying NPAT of...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Care, Cash, Credit and Costs

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday 23 November; we expect focus to be on care profitability, cost control, cash...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ): Strong Underlying Growth Story; Current Macro Scenario Limits Upside

Ryman’s secular growth story is clouded by rising interest rate and falling property prices state. Resale income and unsold stock will be some of...

Tina Banerjee

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed 1H23 result with underlying EBITDA of NZ$38.7m below our expectations of NZ$43.1m; underlying NPAT of...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Care, Cash, Credit and Costs

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday 23 November; we expect focus to be on care profitability, cost control, cash...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ): Strong Underlying Growth Story; Current Macro Scenario Limits Upside

Ryman’s secular growth story is clouded by rising interest rate and falling property prices state. Resale income and unsold stock will be some of...

Tina Banerjee

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index