New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) will report its 1H25 result on Friday, 22 November.</li><li>Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and (2) OCA's recent disappointments in reducing net debt.</li><li>But we see the potential for OCA to report lower net debt, aided by previously announced asset sales, becoming the first in the sector to do so for some time. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) will report its 1H25 result on Friday, 22 November.Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and (2) OCA's recent disappointments in reducing net debt.But we see the potential for OCA to report lower net debt, aided by previously announced asset sales, becoming the first in the sector to do so for some time. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Saint Helier to the Rescue?

<ul>
<li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an in-line result at our annuity EBITDA line and a decent beat at the volatile new sales gain line.</li>
<li>We see the results as a side show to the broader issues of: (1) too much debt; (2) capital raise concerns; and (3) long-term cash generation and profitability.</li>
<li>On the first two issues we believe OCA got the message and appears to be targeting a dramatic reduction in capex. </li>
</ul>


Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an in-line result at our annuity EBITDA line and a decent beat at the volatile new sales gain line.
We see the results as a side show to the broader issues of: (1) too much debt; (2) capital raise concerns; and (3) long-term cash generation and profitability.
On the first two issues we believe OCA got the message and appears to be targeting a dramatic reduction in capex. 


Oceania Healthcare - FY24 Result — Got the Memo

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations.</li><li>2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. </li><li>While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations.2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. 

Oceania Healthcare - Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled, Again

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.</li><li>The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.</li><li>Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.</li>
<li>The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.</li>
<li>In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. </li>
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It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.
The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.
In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. 






New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

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Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Saint Helier to the Rescue?

Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - FY24 Result — Got the Memo

We see the results as a side show to the broader issues of: (1) too much debt; (2) capital raise concerns; and (3) long-term cash generation and...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled, Again

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations. 2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector

It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of...

Forsyth Barr

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Market Cap (USDm)

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