Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>OPEC's production cuts announced this week represent a positive near-term development for world oil markets, removing more than 1 million barrels per day from an oversupplied system. Even after factoring in the inevitable U.S. shale response to higher crude prices, OPEC's cuts point to a meaningful supply deficit next year. Consequently, we are raising our 2017 West Texas Intermediate price to $60 per barrel from $50.</p><p>Improved near-term fundamentals come at a cost, however. Even a modest recovery in oil prices will encourage U.S. shale producers to further ramp activity so that they eventually replace almost all "removed" OPEC barrels with their own. Increased near-term shale activity means that oil prices are unlikely to remain elevated for long. The industry is awash in low-cost oil, and temporary OPEC cuts cannot alter this reality. Our long-term oil price assumption of $55/bbl WTI is unchanged.</p><p><em>Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA </em></p>

OPEC's production cuts announced this week represent a positive near-term development for world oil markets, removing more than 1 million barrels per day from an oversupplied system. Even after factoring in the inevitable U.S. shale response to higher crude prices, OPEC's cuts point to a meaningful supply deficit next year. Consequently, we are raising our 2017 West Texas Intermediate price to $60 per barrel from $50.Improved near-term fundamentals come at a cost, however. Even a modest recovery in oil prices will encourage U.S. shale producers to further ramp activity so that they eventually replace almost all "removed" OPEC barrels with their own. Increased near-term shale activity means that oil prices are unlikely to remain elevated for long. The industry is awash in low-cost oil, and temporary OPEC cuts cannot alter this reality. Our long-term oil price assumption of $55/bbl WTI is unchanged.Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA 

OPEC Adds a Twist to the Plot, but the Ending Is Unchanged

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

<p>Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have been around for some time now in various shapes and forms. While they have always held immense promise, mass adoption has eluded the industry. As more carmakers jump onto the bandwagon, it is worthwhile exploring the opportunities and circumstances that may finally see a trend towards mass adoption. The purpose of this insight is to shed some light on the hype around EVs, the trends in costs of EVs and investment avenues.</p>

Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have been around for some time now in various shapes and forms. While they have always held immense promise, mass adoption has eluded the industry. As more carmakers jump onto the bandwagon, it is worthwhile exploring the opportunities and circumstances that may finally see a trend towards mass adoption. The purpose of this insight is to shed some light on the hype around EVs, the trends in costs of EVs and investment avenues.

<p>The decision by OPEC to cut production is certain to have a material impact on short-term oil and energy share prices.</p><p>This brief report aims to address what we believe are the key supply aspects underpinning 2017-18 fundamentals. Our aim is to assist long-term investors with making sense of the implications of whatever supply strategy OPEC ultimately decides to pursue. Whatever strategy is decided upon, the short-term nature of any production cuts and the long-term problem for oil prices that is U.S. shale means our bearish $55/barrel West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, long-term price outlook will not be changing.</p><p><em>Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA </em></p>

The decision by OPEC to cut production is certain to have a material impact on short-term oil and energy share prices.This brief report aims to address what we believe are the key supply aspects underpinning 2017-18 fundamentals. Our aim is to assist long-term investors with making sense of the implications of whatever supply strategy OPEC ultimately decides to pursue. Whatever strategy is decided upon, the short-term nature of any production cuts and the long-term problem for oil prices that is U.S. shale means our bearish $55/barrel West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, long-term price outlook will not be changing.Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA 

Cold Water: An OPEC Cut Can't Fix Oil's Structural Issues

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. </p><p>This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.</p>

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">The Republican sweep in Washington and the unique nature of his insurgent victory means Trump faces fewer constraints on his power than any recent President.</span></div></li>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">Trade and infrastructure spending are likely to be two key priorities – he can overturn established trade agreements and impose punitive tariffs without recourse to Congress.</span></div></li>
<li><div>However, the Mexican NAFTA deal rather than Asia is likely to be the initial focus of any trade pressure.</div></li>
<li><div>Trump’s economic policies (and many of his advisors) will be…</div></li>
</ul>


The Republican sweep in Washington and the unique nature of his insurgent victory means Trump faces fewer constraints on his power than any recent President.
Trade and infrastructure spending are likely to be two key priorities – he can overturn established trade agreements and impose punitive tariffs without recourse to Congress.
However, the Mexican NAFTA deal rather than Asia is likely to be the initial focus of any trade pressure.
Trump’s economic policies (and many of his advisors) will be…


President Trump Taking America Back to the 1980s…

United States

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

Diamondback Energy Inc is an independent oil and natural gas company currently focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas.

EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

Hess Corporation is a global independent energy company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. of Delaware operates as a pipeline transportation and energy storage company. The Company owns and operates pipelines that transport natural gas, gasoline, crude oil, carbon dioxide, and other products, as well as terminals that store petroleum products and chemicals and handle bulk materials like coal and petroleum coke.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. is an energy company focused on LNG-related businesses. The Company owns and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminals and liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipelines. Cheniere Energy manages and operates projects in Louisiana and Texas.

Targa Resources Corp. owns general and limited partner interests in a limited partnership that provides midstream natural gas and natural gas liquid services.  The partnership gathers, compresses, treats, processes, and sells natural gas.  The Company also stores, fractionates, treats, transports, and sells natural gas liquids and related products.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The Company has joint ventures in oil fields in Vietnam, Norway, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran and Australia. The Group's other activities include deep sea explorations on the east and west coasts of India, and the exploration of coal bed methane.

Bayan Resources Tbk PT is a coal producer.  The Company extracts thermal c oal from surface open cut mines.

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited produces, sells and transports coal. The Company offers coal used by the power, chemical, and metallurgical industries.

Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. The Company develops oil, gas, wind, and solar energy projects, as well as focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor serves customers worldwide.

Eni SpA explores for and produces hydrocarbons in Italy, Africa, the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Australia. The Company both produces natural gas and imports it for sale in Italy and elsewhere in Europe. Eni transports natural gas in pipelines. The Company generates and trades electricity, refines oil, and operates gasoline service stations.

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for and produces oil and natural gas.  The Company refines, markets, and supplies oil products.  Petrobras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants, and petrochemical units.  The Company operates in South America and elsewhere around the world.

TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company. The Company develops, constructs, and manages, oil and liquids, natural gas, and energy infrastructure projects. TC Energy serves customers in North America.

NovaTek PJSC produces and distributes natural gas. The Company explores, processes, transports, and markets natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons. NovaTek offers hydrocarbon reserves development, geological exploration, and gas condensate processing services.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also manufactures and markets a variety of basic chemicals, vinyls and performance chemicals. Occidental also gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, trades and markets crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, condensate and carbon dioxide (CO2) and generates and markets power.

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)

OPEC Adds a Twist to the Plot, but the Ending Is Unchanged

OPEC's production cuts announced this week represent a positive near-term development for world oil markets, removing more than 1 million barrels...

Morningstar, Inc.

Investing in Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have been around for some time now in various shapes and forms. While they have always held immense promise, mass...

Ishita Jain

Cold Water: An OPEC Cut Can't Fix Oil's Structural Issues

The decision by OPEC to cut production is certain to have a material impact on short-term oil and energy share prices.This brief report aims to...

Morningstar, Inc.

Trump, OPEC and Uncertain Games

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought...

Emad Mostaque

President Trump Taking America Back to the 1980s…

The Republican sweep in Washington and the unique nature of his insurgent victory means Trump faces fewer constraints on his power than any recent...

Sean Maher

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