Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro generalists such as myself and Thorsten Slok of Apollo suddenly spend countless hours watching Copper trends.</li><li>It is probably a red flag in itself, but it just seems like these developments are so INCREDIBLY important for global macro- and geopolitics these months.</li><li>We have been all over the Chinese copper story in recent months and also traded it with good luck, but we have admittedly been wrong in our call for a weaker CNY (so far).</li></ul>

Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro generalists such as myself and Thorsten Slok of Apollo suddenly spend countless hours watching Copper trends.It is probably a red flag in itself, but it just seems like these developments are so INCREDIBLY important for global macro- and geopolitics these months.We have been all over the Chinese copper story in recent months and also traded it with good luck, but we have admittedly been wrong in our call for a weaker CNY (so far).

Steno Signals #100 – China’s MAJOR power grab on Copper supply chains

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectations</li><li>RBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcome</li><li>Kiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertain</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectationsRBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcomeKiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertainThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

New Zealand

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Steno Signals #100 – China’s MAJOR power grab on Copper supply chains

Happy Sunday from sunny Greece and welcome to a very special jubilee edition of Steno Signals. Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro...

Steno Research

Global FX: Give me a (range) break

The dollar is trading sideways amid tariff concerns and matured Fed easing expectations, while markets are primed for the RBNZ meeting next week,...

At Any Rate

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

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