IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seiko-pmc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13752:1" rel="noopener">Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP), 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), JSR Corp (4185 JP). 
Lowest spreads  Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Healius (HLS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) - NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, New World Development (17 HK) has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. 
Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

<ul>
<li>Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.</li>
<li>The accretion trade is going to plan as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> sells <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>; and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.</li>
</ul>


Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for JSR Corp (4185 JP) are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.
The accretion trade is going to plan as Prosus NV (PRX NA) sells Tencent (700 HK); and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

Hong Kong

NWS Holdings Limited operates businesses under three main divisions: Service, Infrastructure, and Ports. Its Service division comprises facilities, contracting, transport, financial, and environmental. The Infrastructure portfolio includes roads and bridges, energy, and water treatment and waste management. Its port division includes container handling, logistics, and warehousing.

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Nws Holdings (659 HK)

Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) - NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem

This week, the highest gross spreads are Keiyo (58.3%), 111 (40.8%), Eoflow (22.4%), Symbio (19.3%), IMAX China (19.0%), JSR (8.3%), Boustead...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

I might have been a tad premature suggesting that NWD will eke out gains after the government abandoned the property cooking measures. One wonders...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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